insightsfrom the data - europa€¦ · managers professionals technicians and associate...
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Insights from the data
Emilio Colombo, Catholic University of Milano and CRISP
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 1
Compare OJV…with what?• How OJV stand within the realm of labour
market data?• Can they be compared with other official
statistics?• What is the benchmark?• What are the limits and the constraints of our
data?
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 2
The problem of the population of ref.• JV surveys are often targeted to a narrow
population• Firms >10 employees• Little detail on sectors• Often no detail on occupations
Thus there is no clear benchmark to compare our data with, especially if we are interested in details
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 3
Can we use LFS?• Can we compare OJV with LFS?• No!!! The former are stocks the latter flows• …but• Think of where the demand comes from
• Expansion demand • Replacement demand (this derives directly
from the stock)We looked at the distribution of OJV and of LFS in early release countries in IV qtr 2018
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 4
OJV vs LFS
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 5
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Czechia
Germany
Ireland
Spain
Italy
United Kingdom
France
Share of total (7 countries)
% employment % web
OJV vs LFS: occupations
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 6
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerical support workers
Service and sales workers
Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery…
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
FR FR - web
OJV vs LFS: occupations
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 7
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerical support workers
Service and sales workers
Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery…
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
DE DE - web
OJV vs LFS: occupations
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 8
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerical support workers
Service and sales workers
Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery…
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
IT IT - web
OJV vs LFS: skill level
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 9
46%
36%
18%
47%
36%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
HIGH LEVEL MEDIUM LEVEL LOW LEVEL
FR
FR - web
35%
45%
18%
40% 39%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
HIGH LEVEL MEDIUM LEVEL LOW LEVEL
IT
IT - web
OJV vs LFS: skill level
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 10
45%
41%
14%
52%
32%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
HIGH LEVEL MEDIUM LEVEL LOW LEVEL
DE
DE - web
33%
46%
20%
45%
40%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
HIGH LEVEL MEDIUM LEVEL LOW LEVEL
ES
ES - web
OJV vs LFS: skill level
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 11
44%41%
15%
68%
24%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
HIGH LEVEL MEDIUM LEVEL LOW LEVEL
IE
IE - web
50%
37%
13%
68%
22%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
HIGH LEVEL MEDIUM LEVEL LOW LEVEL
UK
UK - web
OJV vs LFS: skill level
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 12
38%
43%
19%
42%
31%
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
HIGH LEVEL MEDIUM LEVEL LOW LEVEL
CZ CZ -web
OJV vs LFS: sector
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 13
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
CZ DE IE ES IT UK FR
Information and communication
Web LFS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
CZ DE IE ES IT UK FR
Professional and technical services
Web LFS
OJV vs LFS: sector
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
CZ DE IE ES IT UK FR
Administrative and support service
Web LFS
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
CZ DE IE ES IT UK FR
Retail trade
Web LFS
Web vs official JVSCan we compare web vacancies with official vacancy statistics?Difficult
• Different sampling method• Different time frame• Different population
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 15
Time series analysis. ItalyWe have implemented a time series analysis on Italian data comparing web with official statistics• Quarterly time series for different sectors• Disentangle trend from cycle• Perform a cointegration analysis
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 16
Time series analysis. Italy
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 17
Time series analysis. Trend
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 18
Time series analysis. Cycle
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 19
Cointegration analysis. SectorsNace (Sector) Series I(d)
Cointe-gration
Coeff.Long run
R2 Unit root t-test
B,C,D,E - Industry NSO I(1) Y 0.561(0.010)*** 0.993 -4.195WEB I(1)
G - Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles/motor
NSO I(1) Y 0.573(0.025)*** 0.963 -4.922
WEB I(1)H - Transportation and storage NSO I(1) Y 0.709(0.038)*** 0.945 -5.321
WEB I(1)I - Accommodation and food service activities
NSO I(0) N
WEB I(1)J - Information and communication NSO I(1) Y 0.482(0.024)*** 0.952 -3.246
WEB I(1)K - Financial and insurance activities
NSO I(0) N
WEB I(1)M - Professional, scientific and technical activities
NSO I(1) Y 0.408(0.021)***0.949
-3.863
WEB I(1)All Sectors NSO I(1) Y 0.616(0.026)*** 0.963 -3.447
WEB I(1)
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 20
Representativeness• OJV are not representative of the whole population• Some sectors/occupations are over-represented, others
are under-represented• Can we correct OJV in order to be representative?• What is the benckmark to use?• What variables should be included?
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 21
Web vs official statistics• On Official data of Italian LFS we created
population profiles cells determined by combinations of occupation (130), sector of activity (12) and region (20), partitioning the data-set into 31,200 cells.
• Jwv data (truncated sample) has been classified in a similar way with combinations of the same variables.
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 22
Logit for missingness
First run a logistic model to identify the factors that affect the missingness
P(zjt=1) =logit-1(b0 +b1j NUTS2j + b2jISCOj + b3jNACEj +b4jQuarterjt +Interactions)
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 23
Multilevel for correction
Then we run a multilevel poisson model
Yjt /µjt ~ Poisson(µjt)
with the standard log link function as a function of level-1 (time) predictor:
log(µjt) = g0j + g1j Quarter jt
with a random effect only for the intercept that depends also on fixed level-2 predictors:
g0j = (g00 + u0j) + g01 NUTS2j + g02 ISCOj + g03 NACEj
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 24
Correcting for lack of representativeness
AO/DSL/VKVET-GRUSSO/Real–time LMI 2/009/16 250 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Industry; Manufacturing;
Construction
Wholesale Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles/Motorcycles
Accommodation and Food Service activities (act.)
Transportation and Storage
Information and Communication
Financial and Insurance Act.
Real Estate Activities; Professional, Scientific and Technical
Administrative and Support Service Act.; Public Administration and Defense;Compulsory Social Security
Education; Human Health and Social Work Act. + Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
Other Service activities (Act); Act. Households as Employers; Undifferentiated goodsand Services Producing Act.of Households for own use; Act. of Extraterritorial…
% JV Observed
% Model predicted
% JWRate