Inputs from the Inputs from the PROMOTE/MACC projectsPROMOTE/MACC projects

Laurence Rouïl (INERIS)

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Observations Météorologie Chimie (GeoMon, IAGOS…) Surf. continentales et océaniques

Numerical modelsServices

Régional Model

Global Model

Model DModel C

Model B

Model A

General Concept of the future GMES atmospheric services

Data assimilation

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Towards the GAS….

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MACC (ECMWF)Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate « user-producer partnership »

FP6 : GEMS (ECMWF)Global and regional Earth-system monitoring from in-situ and Satellite data « producer-driven »

ESA GSE : PROMOTE1-2 (DLR)Protocol Monitoring for the Groud Segment Element Atmosphere « user-driven »

User Forum for the Service « atmosphere»(dec. 2006, Brussels)

Implementation Group of the GMES Atmospheric Service

Forum GMES(sept. 2008, Lille) Operational GAS

What has been achieved with PROMOTEWhat has been achieved with PROMOTE

Service Level Agreement (SLA) signed with EEA for the provision of O3 and PM10 (tentatively) daily analysed maps

Combination of model simulation and observation using simple data assimilation techniques (optimal interpolation)

Use of NRT OzoneWeb data O3 -> OK with the

CHIMERE/PREV’AIR approach PM -> still under development

(consistency issues) Forecast issues mot covered by

the SLA but information available

Improved representation of air pollution patternsImproved representation of air pollution patterns

Better diagnosis of air pollution episodes (PM especially)

Cross-validation, French Stations,Summer 2006

MACC follow-up : NRT analyses and validated MACC follow-up : NRT analyses and validated a posteriori analysesa posteriori analyses

Operational provision of NRT air quality maps on a daily/hourly basis

Operational provision of validated air quality assessment reports for Europe (re-analyses)

Option : air qulity forecast on a daily basis Use of modelling, in-situ an satellite data, through the

methodologies developed in MACC; ensemble approach6 models involved recognised for their skills : CHIMERE

(F), EMEP (N), EURAD (D), LOTOS-EUROS (NL),MATCH (S), MOCAGE (F)

Strong interface with institutional users (EEA, national agencies) -> policy makers oriented products

Potential contribution to the SOER reportPotential contribution to the SOER report

Analysis of specific pollution episodes that occurred in recent years (re-analysis capacity in MACC)

Accurate representation of air pollution patterns (combination of models and observations and ensemble approach)

Use of in-situ and satellite data (particularly interesting for long range events) -> validated data-sets

Focus on Ozone and PM

Example : PM episodes in spring 2007Example : PM episodes in spring 2007

Example : forest fires in summer 2007Example : forest fires in summer 2007

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FRP product (MSG/SEVIRI) used for estimating aerosol emissions.

25 km resolution model runs

Cooperation with the FREEVAL project (M. Wooster, G. van der Werf, …).

First test case for ensemble re-analyses in MACC

2007-08-25 12:05 26 August 10:00

What if scenarios ….What if scenarios …. MACC includes a « policy-support » work package Analysis of the determinant of air pollution episodes : local vs

transboundary, sources analyses

Emergency scenarios (what if)◦ « Theoritical » example : 10th January 2009 ; CHIMERE runs

PM10 concentration reduction (%) against the reference : alternating traffic (-47 ton/jr over 14O ton/jr PM10 emitted )

PM10 concentration reduction (%) against the reference : wood combustion suppressed (-753 ton/jr over 825 PM10 emitted)

ConclusionsConclusions

A new generation of products tested in PROMOTE/GEMS will become operational in MACC and in the GAS (2012) : high resolution monitoring, mapping and forecasting capacities at the European scale

Daily analyses, re-analyses of pollution events, emission reduction scenarios of general interest can be covered

Sensitive issues : NRT in-situ data, extended validated datasets, maturity of Earth Observation products

User-oriented approach (SLA, workshops) , especially for policy issues (DG ENV, EEA, JRC, EPAs…)

Contribution to the SOER report can be prepared : focus on specific ozone and PM episodes? Which year? Which indicators?

The GMES Atmospheric ServiceThe GMES Atmospheric Service