innovative frameworks for emerging economic challenges seminar on shifting paradigms new york, 18...

Innovative Frameworks for Emerging Economic Challenges

Seminar on Shifting ParadigmsNew York, 18 February 2011Walter Radermacher Chief Statistician of the EU

Innovative Frameworks for Emerging Economic Challenges

Mandate of statistics – change of societies Paradigm shift? Conclusions

Walter Radermacher 3

State, Citizen, Statistics

Statistical information has always (or at least since 250 years) had its particular place in the way a society has organised its regime, its state and its government

Statistics represents the knowledge that is used in the interaction between "gouvernant" and "gouverné".

The role of statistics will change with changes in the relationship between state and citizen, nowadays predominantly defined by the constitutional arrangement of institutions

New forms ("governance") or additional governmental layers (supra-national institutions) are emerging


Globalisation: Decoupling of systems Lessons from financial crisis, environmental and other crises Limitation of solution potential for governments and politics on

national level Politicians are faced with expectations from voters, consumers,

employees, employers, investors, pensioners, current and future generations etc.

New is:– these groups are not any longer captured by national boundaries– the reaction time of these groups is partly very different – cause and effect of an activity or a political measure fall apart in terms of

territory and time A paradox?

– Participation in political decision making can be facilitated through modern ICT and the young generation expects these opportunities to be used.

– Communication or even participation cross borders is a new challenge


Trust, Trust, Trust

Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that. Homer Simpson

Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. W. W. Watt

The most important things cannot be measured. W. E. Deming

Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes. Charles Goodhart

Statistical information can be used for trust building. It can also be misused. Statisticians are the guardians of quality. Walter Radermacher


Paradigm shift?

What do we „sell“? Business model of Official Statistics Dimensions of the paradigm:

– Which products? Changes in the portfolio– Which services? Answers to democratic societies– Which quality? More than sound methodology

Governance, cooperation, coordination


Broadening the mission of Official Statistics: from “product” to “business case”

We provide

• information

We provide

• information

• service

• high quality


The world in one figure?


The Economic System in Statistics: A “flat” projection

flows

stocks

space

time

export

import

investment

depreciation


The Paradigm related to Statistical Products

Main line Gross Domestic Product

partner elements

flows 1 period

1 nation outcomePrices

depreciation (produced) capital

BoP external trade

Net Global Incomelabourdistribution

consumption investments

Expenditure

complementary building blocks Productivity

Purchasing

Power Parity


Review of the paradigm


partner elements

flows 1 period



BoP external trade



Expenditure


Purchasing

Power Parity

1


International crises ask for more information about stocks:– Produced stocks (e.g. real estate market)

– Financial assets (or liabilities), public, private

– Raw materials (traded on markets)

– Human, natural, social capital

Measurement problems– Stocks beyond property rights (public/common goods), e.g.

knowledge, culture, nature

– Valuation of stocks (non-market)

Role of Official Statistics: – Best information for choices between short- and long-term

– No simulation of choices labelled as official statistics

1. Long-term effects / sustainability




partner elements

flows 1 period



BoP external trade



Expenditure


Purchasing

Power Parity

1 2


Globalisation statistics: system-of-systems– Comprehensive framework of

international trade, integration ofservices (incl. mode of service supply, etc.), capital flows,foreign affiliates

– International Input-Output-Tables, value added chain analysis cross border energy balances, carbon footprint etc.

Measurement problems– Mirror differences

– Confidentiality, mutual data access

– Incoherence in cultures in statistical communities

2. Cross-border flows ≠ “external trade”




partner elements

flows 1 period



BoP external trade



Expenditure


Purchasing

Power Parity

1 2

3


3. Services, knowledge, nature as important elements of the production process

Improved quality of statistics on services (incl. output of public services)

Integration of innovation (incl. R+D, patents etc.) Internalise external effects: natural inputs (incl. services

from nature) and collateral output (emissions, waste, …) from the production process




partner elements

flows 1 period



BoP external trade



Expenditure


Purchasing

Power Parity

1 2

3

4


4. Distribution, non-market production

Follow the recommendations of Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Commission – Strengthen the income side of National Accounts– Measure time use and set-up corresponding satellite

accounts– New indicators for well-being and poverty




partner elements

flows 1 period



BoP external trade



Expenditure


Purchasing

Power Parity

1 2

3

4

5


5. Multifactor productivity

Provide a data-warehouse for more comprehensive productivity analyses – Capital– Labour– Energy– Material– Services


A system-of-systems

International models:– standards, nomenclatures, handbooks ensure comparability– International tools (e.g. internat. Input-Output-Tables, Euro-Groups-

Register) open appropriate analysis– International cooperation avoids unnecessary variation and redundancy

of work National models

– Sub-standards adapted to the national situation and request from national users

– National tools are additive Sub-national models

– Disaggregation of national results along the needs of users is feasible Governance issues have to follow the future structure of the

system(s)


Services provided by Official Statistical

In order to allow a great variety of user groups around the globe the highest degree of participation in decision making process (political, economic, financial)– meta-data– accessibility of data – comparability (international standards)

play an extremely important role Open spaces, open solutions Micro-data access for research


Quality: statistics useable as (the) global language

Quality-assurance (incl. the assurance of fundamental principles)

Quality labelling– Official statistics– Official statistics with quality certificate– Experimental official statistics

Education / statistical literacy


Main messages

No replacement of paradigm, but components of paradigm receive new „weights“– Integration of long-term impacts from short-term activities– System-of systems-approach– GDP&Beyond / Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi-recommendations

Services around statistical products allow access from „all sides“

The role of official statistics as the central provider for decision making is reinforced with a strong quality concept

innovative frameworks for emerging economic challenges seminar on shifting paradigms new york, 18...

Documents

walter radermacher slide

emerging slide

eu slide

coordination slide

new challenge slide

government statistics

role of statistics

mission of official