innovate or die - an investor's perspective, presented by david harquail
DESCRIPTION
On February 12, 2013, the Canada Mining Innovation Council held its 2nd Annual Signature Event, a mining conference bringing representatives from industry, government, academia, and other sectors together in Toronto to discuss the role of innovation in the industry's future. Gary Merasty, the VP of Corporate Social Responsibility at Cameco Corporation, presented the role of business in building and engaging communities.TRANSCRIPT
“Innovate or Die – An Investor’s Perspective”
Presentation to:CMIL Signature Event
February 12, 2013
2FNV
Franco-Nevada (FNV on TSX & NYSE)
A gold focused royalty & stream company
Low risk growing portfolio
Participation in world class discoveries
Profitable with increasing dividends
Strong cash position
Outperforming other gold investments
3FNV
Diversified Portfolio of Over 340 Assets*
210 mineral assets136 producing Oil & Gas assets346 total assets
Mineral Assets Oil & Gas Assets
Producing Advanced Exploration
45 28 137 136Gold -US
-Canada
-Australia
-InternationalPGMsOther Minerals
● Both organic and
acquisition near- term
growth
●Exploration
optionality at no cost to
FNV
● Does not include 158 undeveloped oil & gas interests
* As at December 31, 2012
4FNV
Key Producing Assets*
GOLD ASSETS PGMs
U.S. Australia Stillwater
Goldstrike Duketon Sudbury (3 mines)
Gold Quarry Henty Pandora
Marigold South Kalgoorlie
Mesquite Bronzewing Other
Hollister International Weyburn – oil
Canada Tasiast Midale – oil
Sudbury (3 mines) Palmarejo Edson – gas / ngl’s
Golden Highway (3 mines)
Subika Mt. Keith - nickel
Musselwhite Cerro San Pedro
Timmins West Edikan Available Capital
Hemlo MWS ~$1 Billion
A diversified global gold portfolio
* See 2012 Annual Information Form and 2012 Asset Handbook for further detail
5FNV
Business Model Benefits
Gold ETF FNV Operators
Dividend Yield -0.4% >1% 0-2%
Leverage to Gold Price 1 >1 >1
Exploration & Expansion 0% 100% 100%
Reduced Exposure to:
Capital Costs 0% 0%* 100%
Operating Costs 0% 0%* 100%
Environmental Costs 0% 0%* 100%
FNV provides yield and more upside than a gold ETF with less risk than an operator
*Revenue royalties & streams
6FNV
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
240%
280%
320%
360%
400%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FNV
GOLD
FNV IPO: Dec 2007
S&P/TSX Global Gold Index
Outperforming Other Gold Investments
~30% compounded annual growth rate
~$8 billion market cap
FNV and S&P/TSX Global Gold Index converted to USD. Chart to Feb 4, 2013
7FNV
Gold Equities vs. Gold
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8TSX Gold Index / Gold ($USD)
TSX GOLD/GOLD(US$)
13 week moving avg
52 week moving avg
8FNV
New Finds are Proving Increasingly Elusive...
Represents 189 gold deposits discovered since 1990, each with at least 2m oz of gold in total reserves, resources and past production (or at least 1m oz in reserves)
Data sources: Metals Economics Group – Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2012
9FNV
4
23
43
4 45
3
1
4
12
3
1
4
6
1 1
3
1
7
2
4
7
65
1
2
3
4
1
21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Discovery Year
Number of Gold Discoveries Per Year Over 5Moz
Operating
Not Operating
Declining Discoveries
Source: Intierra, Barrick
10FNV
18
4
1 13 3
5 6
14
11
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sDiscovery Year
Number of Gold Discoveries Per Decade Over 20Moz (Supergiant)
Declining Supergiant Discoveries
Source: Barrick
?
11FNV
It’s All About GradeHigh
12FNV
New Finds are Taking Longer to Bring to Market..
Data sources: Metals Economics Group – Strategies for Gold Reserves Replacement 2012
13FNV
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Deutsche Bank, company data, datastream* The equity holder returns represent the returns for AAL, BHP, RIO, XTA
Government
“C-suite”
Employees / suppliers
Investors
Cumulative Returns of Major Stakeholders
14FNV
The New Gold Equity Space
One in three investors have chosen new gold investment options
GOLD Equities$400 Billion
Royalty & Stream Co's$30 Billion
GOLD ETF's$150 Billion
15FNV
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
240%
280%
320%
360%
400%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FNV
GOLD
FNV IPO: Dec 2007
S&P/TSX Global Gold Index
Franco-Nevada Provides:
Growth• Participation in world class discoveries• Strong balance sheet for future acquisitions
Yield
• Dividend increases in each of past 5 years
Low Risk• Diversified and secure portfolio• Minimized inflationary cost risks
Why Own a Gold ETF?
FNV and S&P/TSX Global Gold Index converted to USD. Chart to Feb 4, 2013
16FNV
Peak Gold or Not?
• Current production level can sustained for next 10yrs at today’s gold price
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
250
350
450
550
650
750
Gol
d Pr
ice
(US$
per
oun
ce)
Cash
Cos
ts (
US$
per
oun
ce)
Total for the period Q4 2005 - Q2 2012Cash Costs +187% Gold Price +270%
2006+26%+23%
2007+28%+30%
2008+1%+7%
2009+38%+12%
2010+24%+16%
2011+23%+12%
2012+-5%+12%
Average cash costs versus Gold price
Source: Thomson Reuters, GFMS
We are finding a lot of gold but:
• Size and quality of deposits are much lower
• Capital and Operating costs have ballooned
• Margins and free cash flow have not increased with gold price
17FNV
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US$
per
oun
ce
Replacement Cost for an Ounce of Gold
What is Needed
Cash Operating Costs
Sustaining Capital
Construction Capital
Discovery Costs ?
Overhead
Tax
Acceptable Profit
Source: CIBC
OR
A paradigm shift in:
• Exploration Technology (An equiv. to 3D Geophysics in O&G)
• Processing Technology (Heap leach 70s; Pressure Leach 80s)
• Mining Technology (In Situ leaching?)
Easier access to land
Supportive fiscal regimes
New business models
18FNV
Thank You