inland empire update - berkadia empire update - february... · source: berkadia; axiometrics....
TRANSCRIPT
a Berkshire Hathaway and Leucadia National company
Senior Director951.506.2512
[email protected] BRE License #00908461
Margie Molloy Senior Director949.303.8688
[email protected] BRE License #01269912
Spencer Scott
41391 Kalima Street | Suite 140Murrieta, CA 92562
951.506.2787
inland eMpire office
INLAND EMpIRE UpDAtE feBrUary | 2016
california
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016**
the local economic revitalization that began in 2012 continued in 2015. Employers augmented payrolls 3.7% year over year in Riverside and San Bernardino counties with the creation of 48,300 jobs. the largest contributor to this growth was the trade, transportation and utilities sector, gaining 10,000 workers, an increase of 3.1%. A significant portion of expansion in the sector was attributed to hundreds of jobs created among retail operators Smart & Final Extra! in Moreno Valley, the Fresh Market in palm Desert and Mountain Grove Citrus plaza in Redlands. Brisk job growth enabled multifamily operators to boost asking rents 6.5% to $1,390 per month by year-end. Robust rent appreciation occurred despite a 20-basis-point rise in vacancy to a still-healthy 4.5%. Completions numbering 1,690 units were the highest-recorded annual total since 2009, a factor in the uptick in vacancy. Long-term planning activity remained elevated as developers requested permits for 2,830 apartments.
2015 review
An additional 35,200 job seekers will procure employment this year, equating to a 2.6% gain. Logistics expansion in the two-county area will be a key contributor to overall growth. Australian-based Goodman Group has more than 4.9 million square feet of light-industrial space in various stages of development that, when completed, will provide space for numerous logistics companies, creating thousands of jobs. In the manufacturing industry, Fisker Automotive Inc. will open an assembly plant in Moreno Valley, hiring 150 workers. Economic expansion will sustain apartment demand with 1,300 additional units occupied by year-end. During this time, builders will deliver 1,760 rentals, more than 80% of which will be concentrated in the western portion of the metro. With the short-term supply imbalance, vacancy is forecast to edge up 20 basis points to 4.7%. Despite the upturn in vacancy, multifamily operators are expected to raise asking rents 5.2% this year to $1,462 per month. Meanwhile, effective rents will appreciate 4.9% to $1,455 per month as concessions rise from 0.2% to 0.5% of average asking rents.
2016 preview
Market factS
popUlation4,526,400
MedianHoUSeHold
incoMe$56,000
HoUSeHoldS1,405,200
rentSHare ofwallet29.8%
-80,000
-40,000
0
40,000
80,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016**
aSking rentS and vacancy
*Estimate; **Forecast | Source: Berkadia, Moody’s Analytics
$0
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
cap rate | price per Unit
*Estimate | Source: Berkadia, CoStar Group
0
100
200
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
SaleS activity indeX
*Estimate | Source: Berkadia, CoStar Group
ye 2015 1.3% yoy ye 2015 2.4% yoy ye 2015 1.6% yoy
ind
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Base
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ar
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2015 perforMance HigHligHtS
3.7% yoy
eMployMent48,300
6.5% yoy
aSking rentS$1,390
20 BpS yoy
vacancy4.5%
30.0% yoy
conStrUction1,690 Units
-150 BpS yoy
UneMployMent rate6.1%
-30 BpS yoy
conceSSionS0.2%
ye 2015 140 BpS yoy
*Estimate; **Forecast | Source: Berkadia, Axiometrics, Moody’s Analytics
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016**
*Estimate; **Forecast | Source: Berkadia, Axiometrics, Moody’s Analytics
perMitS and deliverieS
inland eMpire | ca
eMployMent cHange
Data and images pertaining to employment, income, permits, population, rents, single-family housing and vacancy are year-end figures. Absorption, construction and apartment sales figures are full-year totals. Numbers for 2015 are estimated values, while 2016 figures are forecast projections. The sales information represents transactions of apartment properties with 20 or more units and sales price of $1 million or more. Apartment market data criteria and methodologies vary by market.
inland eMpire | ca pipeline report
naMe city Zip UnitS Stage developerOak Springs Ranch Widomar 92563 312 Complete GLJ partners
Vineyards at paseo Del Sol temecula 92592 288 Complete the Dinerstein Companies
Homecoming at the preserve Chino 91708 799 Under Construction Lewis Group of Companies
palisades Sierra Del Oro Corona 92882 288 Under Construction turner Real Estate Invesments
Circa 2020 Redlands 92374 306 Under Construction transcoast Financial
Capriana at Chino Hills Chino Hills 91706 284 Under Construction Fairfield Residential Company, LLC
Encanto at Dos Lagos Corona 92883 354 Under Construction REXCO Development
Main Street Metro Corona 92880 464 Under Construction Watermarke properties Inc
Vistara Ontario 91764 298 Under Construction picerne
Avalon Chino Hills Chino Hills 91709 331 Under Construction Avalon Bay Communities
the Metro Corona 92882 464 Under Construction the Watermarke prop. / Wermers prop.
Arrow Station Montclair 91763 99 Under Construction Hutton Development Co
Vernola Marketplace Apartments Mira Loma 91752 397 permitting Vernola trust
the Crossings at Redlands Redlands 92374 340 permitting UCR Group
palazzo at Rio Vista Cathedral City 92234 149 planning Forum Real Estate Group
Green Desert Apartments Hesperia 92345 84 planning
Hillsborough Apartments III Chino 91710 68 planning Komar Investments
Cajalco and temescal Canyon Dev Riverside 92503 102 planning
palm Canyon Apartments palm Springs 92262 91 planning Wessman Development Company
Rialto Airport Redevelopment Rialto 92376 planning Lewis Group of Companies
Indio plaza Luxury Apartments Indio 92201 69 planning Charlie Knickerbocker; thermal Land, LLC
Cathedral City Mixed Use Cathedral City 92234 69 planning
Fairfield Ranch Commons Chino Hills 91709 346 planning turner Real Estate Invesments
Vista Bella Chino Hills 91709 65 planning Vista Bella Investment properties, LLC
the Santa Barbara Chino Hills 91709 324 planning Lewis Group of Companies
Vista park Chino Chino 91710 40 planning Western American properties
Rialto Apartments Rialto 92376 104 Bidding BM properties
New Haven Ontario 91761 173 Bidding Brookfield properties
Partial Map of Inland Empire | CALocations of Pipeline Developments (Approx.)
nUMBer of UnitS By Stage
coMplete600
planning1,470
perMitting737
Under conStrUction
3,687Bidding
277
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inland eMpire | ca SaleS coMparaBleS 2015Q4watercreSt at tHe polo fieldS46745 Monroe StreetIndio, CA 92201
coe: 12/24/2015
Buyer:Investment Concepts
Seller:Amber Capital, Inc. & FountainManagement, LLC
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
226 1986 $31,369 $32.76 $7,089,500 n/a
loMa viSta2575 Steele RoadSan Bernardino, CA 92408
coe: 12/16/2015
Buyer:UCR Group
Seller:Loma Vista Investors LLC
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
70 1981 $97,943 $147.44 $6,856,000 5.00%
avana canyon creSt5880 Lochmoor DriveRiverside, CA 92507
coe: 12/08/2015
Buyer:Blackstone Real Estate Advisors
Seller:Greystar Real Estate partners
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
158 2004 $215,905 $250.82 $34,112,940 n/a
aMBerwood12957 Ramona AvenueChino, CA 91710
coe: 12/24/2015
Buyer:Robert t. & Jane McCaffrey
Seller:Asher Investments
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
198 1986 $154,040 $181.10 $30,500,000 5.20%
SUMMerwind2055 Central AvenueHighland, CA 92346
coe: 11/10/2015
Buyer:Robert t. & Jane McCaffrey
Seller:Asher Investments
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
180 1990 $95,278 $112.88 $17,150,000 6.20%
viSta SpringS21550 Box Springs RoadMoreno Valley, CA 92557
coe: 10/30/2015
Buyer:providence Capital Group
Seller:pICOA Inc.
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
212 1989 $130,189 $158.29 $27,600,000 5.50%
tHe reServe at rancHo Belago15100 Moreno Beach DriveMoreno Valley, CA 92555
coe: 10/20/2015
Buyer:Bridge Investment Group
Seller:Bristol Brokerage Company, Inc.
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
176 2005 $171,023 $172.43 $30,100,000 5.20%
aSante villaS23925 Bay AvenueMoreno Valley, CA 92553
coe: 10/15/2015
Buyer:Laguna point properties LLC
Seller:Silverstone Investments
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
120 1984 $101,667 $119.02 $12,200,000 n/a
tHe vintage1349 Circle City DriveCorona, CA 92879
coe: 09/11/2015
Buyer:Southpark Company
Seller:Veritas Development, Inc.
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
62 2005 $184,274 $227.59 $11,425,000 4.69%
proMenade terrace451 Wellesley DriveCorona , CA 92879
coe: 09/03/2015
Buyer:Bridge Investment Group
Seller:Equity Residential
UNItS BUILtpRICE /
UNItpRICE /
SF SALE pRICECAp RAtE
330 1989 $237,479 $217.96 $78,368,000 4.75%