ingv-cmcc contribution to climares proposal silvio gualdi and elisa manzini climares meeting 22-23...
TRANSCRIPT
INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal
Silvio Gualdi and Elisa Manzini
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
Overall objectives:
1. provide a set of short-term climate change projections performed with a global model that can be used both as boundary conditions for regional models and to perform climate change impact studies in the Arctic region
2. use climate simulations to assess climate variability and the possible climate change signal in the Arctic region
Two major tasks:
Task 1: Representation of the troposphere-stratosphere interaction and its effects on the simulation of the Arctic climate
Task 2: Improved initialization of the sea-ice in climate simulations
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
Work-plan:
Two streams of simulations will be performed:
• Stream 1 (year 1): Short-term projections (1965-2035) performed with the high-horizontal resolution CMCC model, starting from available oceanic analysis and sea-ice initial conditions;
• Stream 2 (year 2): Short-term projections (1965-2035) performed with the stratosphere resolving CMCC model, starting from improved oceanic and sea-ice initial conditions
The experimental design (CMIP5 protocol)
CMCC: Three-members ensembles with CMCC model. Ocean initial conditions from existing analyses.
The short-term projections performed with the CMCC global coupled model
ObservedGHGs & Aerosols
ScenariosGHGs & Aerosols
2000 20351960 1965 1970 1995… 2005 … …1990 2030
… …
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
30 years
• Ensemble of integrations of the period 1965-2035 with start dates every 5 years (1965, 1970, …, 2005) and 3 member for each start date;
• .
• Oceanic initial conditions: Ocean Analysis (CMCC-INGV) with observed anomalies on top of model climatology;
• .
• Atmospheric ini. cond.: AMIP run;• .
• Sea-Ice ini. cond.: Ocean Analysis for the sea-ice cover distribution and model climatology for the sea-ice thickness;
• .
• GHGs and aerosols from observations for 1965-2005 and from scenarios (according to CMIP5) for 2005-2035;
High-resolution, short-term (decadal) prediction experiments
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
OCEAN (dynamics and physics) NEMO/ORCA2 (Barnier et al. 2006)
SEA-ICE: LIM (Timmermann et al. 2005)
ATMOSPHERE (dynamics, physics, prescribed gases and aerosols)
ECHAM5 T159 - L31 Roeckner et al. (2006)
T63-L95 (stratosphere resolving) (Manzini et al. 2006)
COUPLER Oasis 3
Valcke et al. (2004) COUPLER
Heat FluxWater Flux Momentum Flux
Global Atmosphere
Global Ocean& Sea-Ice
SSTSea-ice
The high resolution CMCC-MODEL
High-resolution, short-term (decadal) prediction experiments
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation
Mean SST 1951-2000
JFM
JAS
OBS (HadISST)
OBS (HadISST) MODEL
MODEL MODEL - OBS
MODEL - OBS
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
global mean sea-surface temperature
Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
SEA-ICECOVERJFM
JAS
OBS CMCC-MED
OBS CMCC-MED
Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.
OBS CMCC-MED
JFM
JAS
OBS CMCC-MED
SEA-ICECOVER
Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation
CLIMARES meeting22-23 October 2009, Bergen
.