ing international trade study - ing wholesale banking · pdf fileexecutive summary about the...
TRANSCRIPT
ING International Trade Study Developments in global trade: from 1995 to 2017
Belgium
Executive summary
About the International Trade Study by ING
The ING International Trade Study aims to help INGs (inter)national clients develop their knowledge and capabilities for doing
business across borders, and to contribute to the public debate on internationalization. We do this by generating valuable insights
on the current and future economic trends and international trade developments worldwide.
This report is part of a series of ING 2012 International Trade Study reports, which includes forecasts for 60 different country and
13 product group reports. These reports document trade developments over the past years and the ING forecasts (2012-2017) for
future international trade patterns and business opportunities, by partner country and export product. These forecasts are derived
from a model specifically developed by the ING Economics Bureau (see also Methodology), and complemented with the in-depth
knowledge of ING economists in our offices around the world.
Belgium is expected to grow on average 0.4% in the coming years. This is relatively low compared to the average of other
European countries and also relatively low compared to the global average of 3.7%. Because of its own economic growth and
that of its main trading partners, Belgian exports are expected to grow 3.8% annually to US$ 598 bn in 2017, making Belgium the
14th largest exporter worldwide. Similarly, import demand will grow with an average of 3.4% per year to US$ 568 bn in 2017,
meaning that Belgium will take the 16th position on the global list of largest importers. By 2017, Belgium will mainly import fuels,
chemicals and other manufactured products, which together account for 41% of total imports of Belgium. Similarly, Belgium's
exports will mainly consist of chemicals, pharmaceuticals and fuels. Together these products will represent 41% of total exports
in 2017. By 2017, Belgium will mainly import products from the Netherlands, Germany and France, which together account for
47% of total imports of Belgium. Belgium's main export markets will be Germany, France and the Netherlands. Together these
countries will account for 50% of total exports in 2017.
5
2012F 2013F 2014F
GDP growth (real): -0.2% 0.3% 1.2%
GDP nominal (bn): 471$ 493$ 517$
Exchange rate* EUR/USD 1.22 1.28 1.30
Inflation: 2.8% 2.0% 2.1%
GDP composition by sector 2010
Agriculture: 0.7%
Industry: 21.8%
Services: 77.5%
2011 2030
Population (mln): 10.7 11.2
GDP per capita: 45,089$
Unemployment rate (avg.): 7.2%
Employment (mln persons): 4.549
2011 2012 2013
Competitiveness rank WEF 15 17
Ease of doing business rank: 27 28 33
Credit rating :
S&P AA
Moodys Aa3
Fitch: AA
*end period
Economy
Population
Other indicators
International
Trade
Trade by products (bn)
North
America
South America
Africa
EU
Asia
Belgium 2011
Food & live animals
Crude materials,
inedible, except fuels
Machinery & Transport
equipment
Beverage & Tobacco
Manufactured goods
Mineral fuels Chemicals
Animal and vegetable
oils
Miscellaneous
manufactured articles
Oceania
CIS
2.9%
2%
12%
0.6%
6%
2%72%
Exports (bn) $478 Imports (bn) $465 Trade balance (bn) $12.71 Exports % of GDP 65%
Exports $35.97
Imports $30.34
Exports $3.82
Imports $4.18
Exports $13.31
Imports $20.28
Exports $51.67
Imports $76.37
Exports $1.76
Imports $2.89
Exports $135.47
Imports $104.85
Exports $85.12
Imports $74.04
Exports $98.47
Imports $105.46
Exports $40.88
Imports $39.84
Exports by region
MENADeveloping Asia
South America
United States
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of
Independent States
2.0 2.6 3.2
2012 2013 2014
6.7 7.2 7.5
2012 2013 2014
3.2 3.9 4.1
2012 2013 2014
4.0 4.1 4.2
2012 2013 2014
5.3 3.6 3.8
2012 2013 2014
2.1 1.8 2.1
2012 2013 2014
-0.2 0.5 1.5
2012 2013 2014
-0.2
0.3 1.2
2012 2013 2014
GDP growth
Global economic growth forecast: Belgium
European Union
Belgium
Economic growth in the coming years will remains sluggish in developed markets. Especially the Eurozone will only experience
limited growth as the region continues to struggle with the Eurocrisis. World output growth is strongly driven by emerging
markets, in particular China and other developing Asian countries.
GDP growth of Belgium is predicted to be slightly lower than the growth of the European Union, with 0.3% in 2013 and 1,2% in 2014.
Trade forecast
Belgium 1995 2011 2017
World ranking 9 11 14
CAGR 2012-2017 3.8%
Belgium 1995 2011 2017
World ranking 10 11 16
CAGR 2012-2017 3.4%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Total exports
bn $
2011 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Total imports
bn $
2011 2017
In the coming years, exports (in current dollar terms) are expected to increase with 3.8% annually. The rank of Belgium in
the list of largest exporters worldwide will decrease to 14.
Demand for foreign products (imports) is also expected to increase in the next five years, with 3.4% annually. The rank of
Belgium in the list of largest importers worldwide will decrease to 16.
Worldwide, the top three export and import countries in 2017 will be China, United States and Germany. The countries that
show the greatest increase in demand for imports of foreign products are Vietnam, Indonesia and Taiwan.
Today (2012) Tomorrow (2017)
The size of the bubble represents the size of imports
Belgian import demand Belgian import origins
2017
2012
Demand for products: origins of imports
Main origins of imports, 2011 and 2017*
Belgium
Import product Origin mln $
Fuels Netherlands || 2% |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 40805
Chemicals Netherlands | 1% |||||||||||| 12822
Pharmaceuticals Ireland -4% ||||||||||| 11302
Pharmaceuticals Germany 0% |||||||||| 10767
Basic food and food products Netherlands ||| 4% |||||||||| 10178
Road vehicles & transport equipment Germany 0% ||||||||| 9416
Chemicals Germany -1% ||||||||| 9045
Chemicals United States 0% |||||||| 8347
Basic food and food products France |||| 4% |||||| 6514
Fuels United Kingdom ||| 3% |||||| 6266
CAGR 2012-2017 Value 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140bn $ 2011 2017
Top 10 largest import flows by product and country of origin*
By 2017, Belgium will mainly
import products from the
Netherlands, Germany and
France, which together account
for 47% of total imports of
Belgium. In volumes, the most
important trade flows to
Belgium currently include fuels
from the Netherlands,
chemicals from the
Netherlands, and
pharmaceuticals from Ireland.
In the coming years, these
flows are expected to change
with 2%, 1% and -4% per year,
respectively.
*within the 60 countries and product flows
included in the study
Demand for products: imports by product group
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Basic food and food products
Beverages and tobacco
Agricult. raw materials
Textiles
Ores and metals
Fuels
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals
Industrial machinery
Office, telecom and electrical equipment
Road vehicles & transport equipment
Other manufactures
Other products
bn $
2017
2011
2007
By 2017, Belgium will mainly import fuels, chemicals and other manufactured products, which together
account for 41% of total imports of Belgium.
Today (2012) Tomorrow (2017)
The size of the bubble represents the size of exports
Where do Belgian products go to? Belgian export markets
Exports: key destination markets
Key destination markets of exports, 2011 and 2017*
Top 10 largest export flows by product and destination country*
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120bn $ 2011 2017
Belgium
Export product Export partner mln $
Chemicals Germany | 1% ||||||||||||||||||||| 21155
Fuels Netherlands |||||| 6% ||||||||||||| 13292
Chemicals France 0% ||||||||||| 11685
Ores and metals Germany |||||| 7% ||||||||||| 11642
Pharmaceuticals Germany -3% ||||||||| 9491
Other manufactures India | 1% |||||||| 8965
Fuels France ||||| 5% |||||||| 8661
Chemicals Netherlands ||||| 5% |||||||| 8558
Road vehicles & transport equipment Germany | 1% |||||||| 8515
Basic food and food products France | 1% |||||||| 8426
CAGR 2012-2017 Value 2011
Belgium's main export markets
will be Germany, France and
the Netherlands. Together