infrastructure in brazil scenarios and opportunities ny, 4 th october 2012
TRANSCRIPT
INFRASTRUCTURE IN BRAZILScenarios and Opportunities
NY, 4th October 2012
One of the key factors for a sustainable socioeconomic growth is infrastructure:
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INTRODUCTION
ENERGY GENERATION TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM (ROADS, RAILROADS, AIRPORTS…..)
SANITATION
HOUSING
The correct dimensions of a country’s infrastructure represents the welfare of its
population, because it brings:
Business costs reduction;
Improvement of country’s productivity;
Enhancement of the quality of goods and services produced; and,
Regional integration
After some years of growth, one of the core issues of Brazilian’s agenda is
infrastructure development.
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INTRODUCTION
BRAZIL’S ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
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Brazil has been experiencing a major social and economic transformation:
An increase of 27.7% in GDP per capita US$ 12.7 thousand (2003 to 2011 – Ipea data)
A reduction in income inequality: wealthiest increased by 16.6% the poorest rose by 91.2% (Ipeadata 2003 to 2011)
More than 30 million people have risen from the poverty level to the middle class bracket (“New Middle Class”)
An increase of 30% in the number of new homes over the past ten years (IBGE)
A reduction in illiteracy: from 11.4% in 2004 to 8.6% in 2011 (IBGE)
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
SOCIAL INDICATORS
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HIGHER DEMAND FOR BASIC SERVICES PRESSURE FOR EXPANSION OF INFRASTRUCTURE
Brazilian’s GDP: US$ 2.4 trillion (the world's sixth largest economy)
GDP’s Growth: 2.7% (in 2011); 1.6% (in 2012) and 4.5% (in 2013 - Bacen)
Inflation Target: 4.5% per year (2012, 2013 and 2014) – with a 2% “margin”
Inflation Forecast for 2012: 5.2% (Bacen – 06/09)
Average Unemployment rate: 5.3 % (August/2012) (IBGE)
Foreign Reserves: US$ 377 billion (August/2012) (Bacen)
(FDI) Direct Foreign Investments in 2012: US$ 60 billion (Bacen)
Exports: US$ 264 billion/year (Forecast for 2012 of the MDIC)
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IS ONLY POSSIBLE WITH THEEXPANSION OF INFRASTRUCTURE
DEFICIT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
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DEFICIT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
PORTS
BRAZILIAN PORTS:MAIN BOTTLENECKS AND DEMANDS
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US$ 21,4 BILLION TO MITIGATE PORT INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS
US$ billion
DEFICIT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
HIGHWAYS
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A HUGE GAP IN TRANSPORTANTION INFRASTRUCTURE
RAILROADS
DEFICIT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
HOUSING
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EVOLUTION OF THE HOUSING DEFICIT – MILLIONS OF HOMES
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HOUSING DEFICIT ESTIMATED AT 5.6 MILLION HOMES
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
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The investment forecast: US$ 575 billion (2012 – 2014)
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
GROWTH ACCELERATION PROGRAM (PAC)
THE MAIN SECTORS (IN BILLIONS)
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POTENCIAL FOR CONCESSIONS AND PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS
OTHER GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
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INVESTMENT PROGRAM IN LOGISTICS – HIGHWAYS & RAILROADS (AUG 15, 2012)
Concession of 7.5 thousand kilometers of Highways
Concession of 10 thousand km of federal railroads
Investments of over US$ 66 billion in 25 years:
US$ 21 billion in highways
US$ 45 billion in railroads
AIRPORT CONCESSIONS (2012)
Guarulhos, Brasília and Campinas Airports were conceded by the Federal
Government in February 2012: US$ 14 billion
PETROBRAS INVESTMENT PLAN – 2012 TO 2016
Oil: US$ 236.5 billion (2012 – 2016) relating to 980 projects
Gas: US$ 13.5 billion (2012 – 2016) relating to 105 projects
OTHER GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
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FORECAST OF NEW INITIATIVES
PORTS
•Bids on concessions for ports are scheduled for October 2012
•Investments: US$ 15 to 20 billion through to 2030
•Adaptation of existing ports and the creation of new ports
AIRPORTS
•Bids on new concessions for two internationals airports are scheduled for October 2012 – Rio de Janeiro e Belo Horizonte
•Investments: US$ 1 to 2 billion
2014 WORLD CUP
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2014 WORLD CUP
INVESTMENT OF R$ 27 BILLIONS
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RIO OLYMPIC GAMES 2016TOTAL INVESTMENT OF US$ 29 BILLIONS
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WHAT IS NECESSARY TO LEVERAGE INVESTMENTS?
“Planning Cycle”
PROJECT PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT
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PLANNING CYCLE (Law 8666/93)PLANNING CYCLE (Law 8666/93)
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HOW TO RECONCILE AGILITY, QUALITY, LEGALITY AND CONTROL?
Each step of the planning cycle requires specialized services:
Engineering Project Services (construction engineering and assembly; environmental
engineering, etc.)
Economic and financial analysis of projects (feasibility)
Project management
Technical support services
Technical and financial management and monitoring of works
Analysis of compliance between project design and execution
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PROJECT PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT
To solve bottlenecks in infrastructure we need a robust specialized consultancy
with efficient techniques and experienced professionals
Brazil is currently training a large contingent of qualified professionals
The Brazilian market for specialized services in infrastructure sectors is
expanding and becoming attractive in global terms
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GROWING DEMAND FOR CONSULTANCY SERVICES
The consultancy sector will receive 5 to 10% of the total to be invested in infrastructure in Brazil in the coming yearsThe consultancy sector will receive 5 to 10% of the total to be invested in infrastructure in Brazil in the coming years
CHALLENGES
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RECUPERATION OF THE BRAZILIAN TECHNICAL CAPACITY
ATTRACTING FOREIGN CONSULTANCY COMPANIES
GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC INCENTIVES FOR SERVICE SECTORS
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Challenges
