infrastructure and sustainability by peter newman
TRANSCRIPT
Infrastructure and Sustainability: The next big agenda
ByPeter Newman
Professor of SustainabilityCurtin University
Infrastructure Australia
• Infrastructure Australia Act, 2008. April• Independent advice to Federal Government
and to COAG. Advice...
• Policy, regulation and investment options to improve infrastructure.
• ‘Will consult widely’.
Infrastructure Australia
• Board of 12 from across Australia, with Sir Rod Eddington Chair.
• IA and the Infrastructure Co‐ordinator (Michael Deegan, ex NSW DGT) will be based
in Sydney with the Major Cities Unit.
• Part of DITRDLG....
Infrastructure Australia• National Infrastructure Audit – by Dec 2008.• Infrastructure Priority List – by March 2009.
• National PPP Guidelines – by October 2008.
• Building Australia Fund $20 billion.
IA and Sustainability
• ‘review...project appraisal, planning and approvals processes...’
from DITRDLG Website
on IA.
• ‘to provide advice on infrastructure policy issues arising from climate change.’
from IA
Act.
• ‘Rigour’
in how priorities are set....
Political support....
‘Sustainability and climate change will be important considerations in any IA work.’
Anthony Albanese, Minister for Infrastructure, in June at launch of IA.
What will this mean in practice?
Political support for cities and public transport....
‘Better public transport is part of the answer to soaring petrol prices’, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says. ‘Hasn't the time come for some
decent public transport systems, invested in by the national government across our major cities.’
June 6th, 2008, Channel 9.
Even Ralph Swan....
‘There is much much more we need to do for energy efficiency and public transport...’
And Greg Hunt...
‘...fixing up the public transport blackspots across Australia...’
Lateline July 16th, 2008
Arctic sea ice extent 1978‐2007in millions of km2
(National Snow and Ice Data Center
ETS....
• Will add around 10 c/liter to fuel at $40/T, IEA predict $38 to $110.
• Government will refund – how will they tell what is due to ETS and what is due to peak
oil?
Peak oil?
‘A growing number of oil‐industry chieftains are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe:
The world is approaching a practical limit to the number of barrels of crude oil that can
be pumped every day.’
Russell Gold and Ann Davis
Wall Street Journal, November 19th, 2007
Production cycle of an oil field
The Hubbert PeakSci Amer 1971
18
20
Long term oil prices
Era of Cheap Oil
Recent Movements
Fig 2.3 How we use oil and natural gas & how this may change as they peak in production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1955 1980 2005 2030
Dema nd
PetrochemicalsHeating Oil }OilJet Fuel
Diesel
Gasoline
Transport
Industr y
Natural Gas}
Buildin gs
Electric Power
22
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
30/09
/2001
30/09
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30/09
/2003
30/09
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30/09
/2005
30/09
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30/09
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30/09
/2008
30/09
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30/09
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30/09
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WTI
(US$
/bar
rel)
Actual price
March 2008prediction
March 2007prediction
March 2006prediction
March 2005prediction
March 2004prediction
March 2003
ABARE's oil price forecasts have proven to be systematically
low
Economists' forecasts published Nov 2005 Prof Tony Owen, UNSW, now at Curtin
$35/barrel in a couple of yearsNobel Economics winner, Vernon Smith (at UNSW) $15/barrel in the near future
Containers tripled in price
since 2000 and will
double again if $200/bl.
Have to reduce 50% by 2050...
• Either by reducing demand due to climate change governance....
• Or by supply reductions that are going to happen anyway.
Gas vulnerability
Sustainability is the next big economic opportunity...
Treasure Island
Eco‐City
Even the ‘Governator’
is demanding sustainability...
Rizhao Solar City, China
Vastra
Hamnen, Malmö
Power Production as Urban Design
Beddington
Zero‐Energy Development, London
New 6 star building for Macquarie Bank by Multiplex
CH2 the first 6 star building…
Melbourne City Council,
government leadership at its best...
Carbon neutral, mining the sewer for water recycling,
healthy natural lighting, local materials...
140 William St, the trend setter in Perth…
We can do it with commercial buildings...
But for settlements we need infrastructure and planning.
What do we need to do to be more sustainable and resilient in our
settlements?1.
Build transit – with PPP’s, TOD, POD and
GOD...
2.
Renewables
and electric vehicles partnership.
3.
Eco‐villages on the fringe.
4.
Greening the Greyfields.
5.
CNG, airships, telepresence...
6.
Indigenous roads program.
1. Build transit – with PPP’s, TOD, POD and GOD
US car dependent cities dying from the outside in...
• Wealthy eco‐enclaves surrounded by Mad Max suburbs…
• Highly probable.
Code Red for outer areas...Sydney
40
2.3 – 7.67.6 –
10.110.1 – 12.612.6 – 15.015.0 – 18.418.4 – 24.524.5 – 39.0
Annual Vehicle Km per Household, 2004
Outer suburbs
residents,
particularly
those away from
rail lines, drive
much more than
inner suburbs
residents.
Opening of new Southern Railway 90% approval ratings and already paid off
New Southern Rail....av
speed 90 kph; max speed 130 kph.
Revived rail: j to wk 5% to 10%
in 10 yrs;
Perth journey to work 2001‐2006• Cars 13% increase• Public transport 33% (trains 48%)• Walking 41%• Biking 21%• Pop 9%
Sth
Rail tocontinue the growth –
50,000
per day...
Next phase for Perth?
Chatswood in Sydney built new station as part of a ‘Value Transfer PPP’...
Why cant we generate a PPP for light rail using value transfer...?
TOD, POD and GOD...
Vancouver TODs
on
Skytrain
Portland led the way in America
Orinoco Station – first new city in the suburbs
State Center TOD, PB Placemaking
• People living in TODs
have 50% less car use and save 20% of their household income
due to one less car.
• Value retained in down times and good in up times.
Australian Cities – all want TODs
All strategic plans based on:
• Sustainability and overcoming car dependence.
• Centres and corridors.• Transit over highways.THIS IS THE INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO CITIES
Pedestrian Oriented Development
Jan Gehl
the walkability magician...working for City of Perth and CUSP, Oct 2008
Velib
Paris 20,000 bikes at 1450 locations,
370 kms
cycle lanes.
TRAVEL SMART- Creating a more resilient transport culture....
• Developed from German Werner Brog, applied first in Perth, then UK now US.....• Individualised marketing based on direct intervention with householders receiving educational materials on alternatives to the car.• Bikers and bus drivers become eco- coaches...
Kogarah ‐
Green TOD
Green Oriented Development
Water Sensitive Urban Design
Perth 20 TODs…
eg
Esplanade Station
New TOD for central Perth... Or is it Dubai.
Subiaco TOD – ‘Better Cities’
at its best.
Plan for Mandurah City Centre
Can we do 50% to 80% by 2050?
Yes if we do new transit technology, and new land use... At the same time.
Eg building transit can lead to exponential declines in car use...
Lifestyles and city form change with it...
PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER KILOMETRES PER CAPITA VERSUS CAR PASSENGER KILOMETRES PER
CAPITA
y = -4576Ln(x) + 40753
R2 = 0.4973
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0
Annual per capita public transport passenger kilometres per capita
What if Perth could triple its transit?
• Transit going from 640 pass kms
per person to 2000 (2‐3%/yr) would reduce car use from
13,500 pass kms
per person to 6000.
• 7,500 pass kms
lost for gain of 1360 pass kms on transit (5 to 1)....56% less car use!
• How does this happen?
Transit Leverage…. Trip chaining, one less car, move house or
job…
land use changes.
Key to transit leverage is space saved...
Transit (and walking) helps you reclaim urban space…
Freeways 2,500 per lane/hr
Busways
5‐8,000 per lane LRT 10‐20,000 per lane
Train 50,000 per lane.
2. Renewables
and electric vehicles partnership
CETO Wave Power
PV Solar growing at 40% per year
Roof mounted wind systems eg Windpods
How do you store renewables?
Link renewables
into a Smart Grid and store in electric vehicles – V2G (Li‐Ion batteries)
Renewables
competitive now with peak power;
Two way flow with electric vehicles provides the breakthrough for a resilient renewably‐
powered grid. Google campus demonstration
.... and North Port Quay.
Carbon‐free development based on renewables, Smart Grid and
electric vehicles.
4. Eco‐villages colonising the fringe.
Ecovillages
can be....
• Built with its own water, power, sewerage infrastructure,
• Be relatively self sufficient in economy and transport
• Provide the social support in a village context many are looking for.
Eco‐villages growing rapidly....
5. Greening the Greyfields ‐
in middle suburbs...
• 1950s and 60s suburbs in decline;• Retrofitting houses for green technology –energy
efficiency and PV‐electric vehicle;
• Land assembly to enable new houses such as aged and young apartments around transit;
• Green infrastructure such as underground power, smart grids, water sensitive urban design...
• Better parks and services...
Transformation of a city…
Imagine the PossibilitiesImagine the Possibilities
Photo Series: UrbanAdvantage
6. CNG, airships, telepresence...
Telepresence...live HD
Airships use 1/10th
the fuel...
Good for remote freight and ecotourism
Natural Gas in Vehicles
• Only option for heavy vehicles; CNG buses have shown how to do it. Australian technology used to
convert Mumbai and Chenai
buses.
• Australia has 77% of its population on natural gas distribution system.
• Can convert biomass to natural gas.
• Leads into Hydrogen economy.
Diesel‐free Pilbara?
6. Indigenous roads program
Remote area sustainability needs good roads
Can normalisation mean Indigenous mgt of roads?
Indigenous infrastructure for Indigenous work...
What do we need?
• Imagination, creativity, innovation...
• Partnerships...