informing agricultural trends and livelihoods in west africa

CONTRACT REVIEW SEMINARMbaye Yade

Regional Coordinator ReSAKSS WA

Informing Agricultural Trends and Livelihoods

in West Africa

Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa

OUTLINE

• INTRODUCTION

• CAADP

• ReSAKSS

• PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS

• TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS

• CONCLUSIONS


INTRODUCTION

• CGIAR INITIATIVE LED BY IFPRI: => promote more efficient policies and allocations of scarce public resources through a network of partners sharing data, tools for policy and institutional analysis, and analytical outputs:– FOCUS ON SOME COUNTRIES WITH HIGH BUDGET NATIONAL SAKSS

FUNAED BY DONORS– SUPPLY DRIVEN– 3 SAKSS nodes and a continent wide one

• CAADP CONTEXT: focus on the support to REC’s to implement, monitor and evaluate agricultural policies and strategies:– BUILD ON EXISTING NETWORKS– IMPLEMENT NATIONAL FOCAL GROUP CONCENT– MOBILISE ANA STRENGTHEN NATIONAL ANA REGIONAL CAPACITIES

ANA EXPERTISE– BROADER GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE

• ReSAKSS WA CURRENTLY FUNAED BY DFID, SIDA AND USAID


AU PROGRAM: OWNED BY AFRICAN COUNTRIES

AFRICAN LED ANA GROWN AS PART OF NEPAD PROCESS: UNLIKE SAP

OBJECTIVES ANA TARGETS SET BY HSG

ALIGNMENT OF DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE WITH CAADP OBJECTIVES ANA PRINCIPLES

INWARD LOOKING: UNLIKE LAGOS PLAN OF ACTION

AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH TO REACH MDG1

TARGET GOAL OF 6% GROWTH RATE

INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT (10% BUDGET SHARE)

FOUR MAIN PILLARS TO GUIDE INVESTMENT

EXPLOITATION OF REGIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES FOCUS ON GOVERNANCE: POLICY EFFICIENCY, PEER REVIEW,

ACCOUNTABILITY

INCLUSIVENESS: FARMERS, AGRIBUSINESS, CIVIL SOCIETY

CAADP: MAIN FEATURES & PRINCIPLES


ECOWAP/CAADP THEMES

• improving water management

• sustainable farm development

• improved management of other shared natural resources

• development of agricultural chains and market promotion

• prevention and management of food crises and other natural disasters

• Institutional building

Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 6

RESAKSS:KNOWLEDGE SUPPORT

FOR PEER REVIEW ANA POLICY DIALOGUE

STRATEGIC

ANALYSIS

COUNTRY

SUPPORT

COORDINATION

GOVERNANCE

RECs / SROs

Regional

SAKSS

NodesCGIAR

ENA

USERSLOCAL

ORG

COUNTRY

NODENARS/GOV

COUNTRY LEVEL

Support for planning,

Implementation, &

Progress Review

REGIONAL LEVEL

Support for

Regional Coordination and

Peer Review

CONTINENT LEVEL

Support for Policy

Dialogue and

Mutual Review


ReSAKSS WA

• VALUE ADDITION:– Shared/credible database– Analytical expertise and agenda– Tracking and Monitoring Support

– Policy Dialogue;

• Facilitate access by ECOWAS and its member states to policy-relevant analyses of the highest quality – generate necessary knowledge to improve

policy making– track progress /document success– derive lessons that can feed into the review

and learning processes


Logical Framework of ReSAKSS

• 1. Strategic Analysis

– Policy and Investment Options

– Spatial Analysis

– Monitoring and Evaluation

• 2. Knowledge Management

• 3. Capacity Building


ACHIEVEMENTS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment

Options

• Joint project WARDA ReSAKSS WA “Stratification of Rice and Maize Production Systems in Support for Investment Decisions”

• Climate change adaptation study: estimate impact of possible climate change on the future growth potential of West Africa’s agriculture



Options (cont.)



Options (cont.)

• Regional Strategic Priorities in Agriculture for Growth and Poverty Reduction in West AfricaStudy in collaboration with IFPRI– the overall economic growth rates required to meet

key development targets– the impacts of different agricultural sub-sectors on

agricultural GDP as well as total GDP and poverty– the returns to productivity-enhancing investments vs.

reductions in barriers to trade and marketing– the potential added returns to regional cooperation in

agricultural R&D and infrastructure investments– the governance impact on regional cooperation and

growth



Options (cont.)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

BFA

Chad

Gam

biaG

NBM

ali

MRT

Niger

Senegal

Guin

eaSLE

CIV

Ghana

Togo

Benin

Nigeria

CMR

CAR

Gabon

CongoRDR

C

Sahelian

Coast

Central

GDP AgGDP



Options (cont.)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

East

West

North

South

Average AgGDP annual growth in different scenarios

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Burk

ina

Faso

Chad

Gam

bia

Guin

ea B

issa

uM

ali

Mau

ritan

ia

Nig

er

Seneg

al

Guin

ea

Sierr

a Leo

ne

Cote

dIv

oire

Ghan

a

Togo

Ben

in

Nig

eria

Cam

eroon

CAR

Gab

on

CongoR

DRC

Sahel

ian

Coas

t

Cen

tral

% Add gr fr catching-up yield potential

Add gr fr pest/weed control

Base



Options (cont.)

Sub-sector’s contribution to total Agricultural growth

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Burkin

a Faso

Cha

d

Gam

bia

Gui

nea

Bissa

uM

ali

Mau

ritan

ia

Nig

er

Seneg

al

Gui

nea

Sierra

Leo

ne

Cot

e dIv

oire

Gha

na

Togo

Benin

Nig

eria

Cam

eroon

CAR

Gab

on

Con

goR

DR

C

% Cereals Roots Pulse&oilseedl

Veg&fruit Cocoa Cotton

O.high-value Livestock Others


ACHIEVEMENTSStrategic Analysis - Spatial Analysis

Mapping Child Nutrition

• Child Stunting in WCA


ACHIEVEMENTSStrategic Analysis - Spatial Analysis

Mapping Child Nutrition (cont.)

• TreNAs in Stunting in WCA


ACHIEVEMENTSStrategic Analysis - Monitoring and Evaluation

• Study on the progress of the agricultural sector and households’ livelihoods in West Africa:

– Agricultural expenditures in relation with the Maputo declaration: >=10 % of national budget to agriculture

– Recent achievements and emerging trendss: ag productivity and growth, poverty reduction and alleviation of hunger and child malnutrition;

• AGRIS: ECOWAS/WAEMU/CILSS initiative for an Integrated Information System on Agriculture

• CAADP M&E Framework


ACHIEVEMENTSKnowledge Management

Technical Support to CAADP Round Table Process at national and regional levels

• Facilitating National nodes

• Dissemination of analytical results:

– Abuja, October 2006: ECOWAS/IFPRI/IITA

– Accra, August 2007: WARDA/IITA-ReSAKSS

– Dakar, March 2008: RADI/IITA/WARDA

– Abuja May 2008: ECOWAS/IITA/WARDA

– Ouagadougou, June 2008: Trends

– Accra, May 2009: Trends


ACHIEVEMENTSCapacity Building

• Policy Analysis and Modeling

– Modeling workshop for CAADP national teams, March 12 – 15, 2007

– Technical workshop for the joint IFPRI/IITA WCA study

– Methodological workshop for the study on trends

• Geographic Information Systems

– Training for IITA GIS Collaborator


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODSAGRICULTURAL FUNDING

• Left: Ag budget shares; right: Ag actual expenditure shares

• Downward trends

• In general: >10% for Sahelian countries and < % for coastal countries except for Ghana

BENIN

BURKINA FASO

COTE D'IVOIRE

GHANA

MALI

NIGERIATOGO

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008

BENIN

BURKINA FASO

COTE D'IVOIRE

GHANA

MALI

NIGER

NIGERIA

SENEGAL

TOGO

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS

AGRICULTURAL FUNDING (cont.)

• Left: ratio R1=share of ag expenditures/contribution of ag sector to overall economic growth; right: investment share in ag expenditures;

• Ratio R1 and Investment share higher for Sahelian countries

BENIN

BURKINA FASO

C. D'IVOIRE

GHANA

MALI

NIGER

NIGERIA

SENEGAL

TOGO

0

25

50

75

100

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008




• left: share of internal resources in ag expenditures; right: share of internal resources in ag investments

• Ratios higher for coastal countries

BENIN

BURKINA FASO

COTE D'IVOIREGHANA

MALI

NIGER

SENEGAL

TOGO

0

25

50

75

100

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008

BENIN

BURKINA FASO

COTE D'IVOIRE

GHANA

MALI

NIGER

SN

TOGO

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008




• Share of individual sub sectors to ag expenditures

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

BENIN BURKINA FASO

COTE D'IVOIRE

GHANA MALI NIGER NIGERIA SENEGAL TOGO

Production végétale Elevage Pêches, Forêts et Chasse




• Higher shares of agricultural expenditures and agricul-tural investments are due more to external funding



ECONOMIC GROWTH

• Real GDP growth rate

Country/Period 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2003-2007

ECOWAS 2.2% 3.6% 8.0% 5.9%

ECOWAS without

Nigeria1.2% 4.9% 4.1% 4.4%

Sahelian Countries 2.4% 5.4% 4.4% 5.2%

Coastal Countries 2.1% 3.3% 8.7% 6.1%

Coastal Countries

without Nigeria0.5% 4.7% 4.0% 3.9%



ECONOMIC GROWTH (2003-2207) (cont.)

Growth rate Country

Negative Liberia

0 to 3% Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Togo

3 to 6%Bénin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Mali,

Niger, Sénégal

More than 6% Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Cape-Verde

Per capita GDP Country

Less than 500 $ PPP Guinea Bissau, Liberia

500 to 1 000 $ PPP Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Togo

1 000 to 1 500$ PPP Bénin, Ghana, Nigeria, Sénégal

Mora than 1 500 $ PPP Cape-Verde, Côte d’Ivoire


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS1/ Share of agriculture – 2/ Contribution of

agriculture to economic growth

Period 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2003-2007

ECOWAS 31% 31% 32% 31%

ECOWAS without Nigeria 31% 30% 30% 29%

Sahelian Countries 28% 29% 28% 27%

Coastal Countries 31% 32% 32% 32%


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS1/ Growth rate of Value added per worker –

2/ Contribution of crop sub sector to ag growth


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS1/ Contribution of livestock to ag growth–

2/ Contribution of fisheries and forestry to ag growth


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODSDistribution of Land among crops in ECOWAS Region

C of f ee/ C acao 8 .7% Grain Legumes

9 .8 %

Oil Seeds 11.4 %

R oot s and Tubers

13 .9 %

C ereals , 56 .2 %



Production TrendsCereals- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007)

Country Production Yield Population

Gambia 6,5% NT 3,4%

Niger 4,7% 3,3% 3,6%

Mali 3,7% 2,1% 2,8%

Burkina Faso 3,2% 2,2% 3,0%

Cape-Verde NT NT 2,4%

Guinea Bissau NT NT 3,0%

Sénégal NT 1,6% 2,6%

SAHEL 3,5% 2,3% 3,0%

Guinea 5,2% 0,1% 2,5%

Bénin 4,4% 1,8% 3,2%

Nigeria 4,1% NA 2,7%

Togo 3,5% 2,9% 3,1%

Ghana 2,5% 1,1% 2,4%

Côte d'Ivoire 0,5% 4,1% 2,4%

Liberia NT NT 4,0%

Sierra Leone NT -1,5% 2,3%

ECOWAS 3,8% 2,7%

Groundnuts- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007)

Country Production Yieldmaximal

Yield

Niger 9,7% 2,4% 492

Burkina Faso 4,2% NT 1 042

Gambia 3,3% NT 1 240

Mali 2,7% NT 1 152

Guinea Bissau 1,4% 1,5% 1 200

Sénégal -3,1% -1,1% 1 106

SAHEL NT -0,9% 939

Ghana 10,6% 1,5% 1 354

Sierra Leone 9,7% 1 028

Nigeria 7,0% 1,4% 1 183

Guinea 7,0% 3,7% 1 446

Bénin 4,4% 1,9% 979

Liberia 3,2% 609

Togo 1,2% 1,8% 781

Côte d'Ivoire 0,4% 0,4% 928

ECOWAS 4,9%



Production Trends

Cassava – Average annual growth rate (1990-2007)

PAYS Productio

n YieldMaximal

Yield

Sénégal 12,4% 6,8% 10 810

Guinea Bissau 7,5% -0,8% 16 663

Niger 5,2% NA NA

Sahel 8,5% 3,2% 14 364

Bénin 7,9% 3,5% 13 050

Sierra Leone 6,4% -0,5% 5 990

Liberia 5,4% NT 6 909

Ghana 5,3% 1,5% 12 757

Guinea 3,9% 2,3% 8 025

Togo 2,9% -1,5% 7 787

Côte d'Ivoire 2,8% 1,3% 8 048

Nigeria 2,3% 0,8% 12 505

Coastal Countries without Nigeria 5,0% 1,5% 10 479

ECOWAS without NIGERIA 5,1% 1,4% 10 484

ECOWAS 3,1%

Yam- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007)

Country production YieldMaximal Yield

Bénin 3,8% NT 13 067

Côte d'Ivoire 3,3% 0,4% 8 882

Nigeria 3,2% 1,4% 13 284

Ghana 2,9% NT 13 506

Togo 2,6% 1,1% 10 997

Coastal Countries without Nigeria 3,8% NT 10 405



Cotton Production

• Upward trends until 2004/2005

• World market price drop

• Liberalisation problems

• Falling yields

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Bénin Burkina Faso Côte d'Ivoire Mali



Irrigation

49.6%

17.8%

11.4%

18.0%

4.2%6.8%

1.9%5.5%3.3% 2.6%

1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mali Senegal Togo Burkina

Faso

Côte

d'Ivoire

Nigeria Niger Benin

Developed area/total area cultivated

developed cultivated area /total area cultivated

31.5%

15.7%11.7%

4.2%

14.8%23.0%

35.9%

68.5% 68.4%

44.6%41.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Burkina FasoGhana

NigerTogo

Nigeria

Côte d'IvoireBenin Mali

Senegal

Developed area/irrigable area cultivated developed area /developed area



Meat and Fish Production

Country

Average annual growth rate of Meat production

Meat Per capita

consumption (kg)

Meat Per capita Needs (kg) Period

Mali 2,9% 16 20 1990-2006

Niger 8,0% 14 15 1994-2007

Sénégal 4,4% 10 19 1990-2007

Nigeria 13,6% 8 1997-2007

Benin 3,7% 6 10 1997-2007

Burkina Faso 4,3% 5 12 1990-2006

Côte d'Ivoire PT 4 2001-2007

Ghana PT 3 2000-2007

Country

Average annual growth rate of Fish production

Average per capita fish production

(kg)

Fish Per capita Needs

(kg Period

Sénégal 1,1% 43 29 1994-2007

Sierra Leone 28,4% 16 2002-2005

Mali -3,0% 9,4 8,0 1993-2005

Côte d'Ivoire 2,8% 8,0 2001-2005

Benin -1,2% 5,4 1995-2008

Togo 5,1% 4 1990-2007

Burkina Faso 2,8% 0,7 2,0 1998-2008



Poverty incidence


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODSPoverty Trends

Poverty trends between the last 2 surveys

0%20%40%60%80%

Benin

(2006/2007)

Ghana

(1999/2006)

Mali

(2001/2006)

Niger

(2005/2008)

Nigeria

(1996/2004)

Senegal

(2202/2006)

initial ratio final ratio

Poverty reduction rates between the last 2 surveys

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Benin

(2006/2007)

Ghana

(1999/2006)

Mali

(2001/2006)

Niger

(2005/2008)

Nigeria

(1996/2004)

Senegal

(2202/2006)

Poverty reduction rate MDG Target



Stunting



Access to safe Water



Under 1 year Child Mortality



Under 5 years Child Mortality



Maternal Mortality


CONCLUSIONS

• Achievements– Building of a strong Partnership with ECOWAS and other

regional and national Institutions in West Africa;– Moving the CAADP Agenda;– Establishing Country SAKSS;– Development of a platform to inform Progresses in agriculture

and Livelihoods at national and regional levels.

• Prospects:– Additional information needs have been widely identified =>

Regional studies to take into account the information gap to improve agricultural policy making and agricultural program design;

– Dissemination of the generated information and data;– Effective Support to the national and regional CAADP M&E

Systems through the establishment of Country ReSAKSS nodes.

informing agricultural trends and livelihoods in west africa

Business

strategic analysis policy

knowledge management

livelihoodsin west africa

regional strategic priorities

necessary knowledge

west africastudy

policy efficiency

policy implementation