inductive reasoning the role of argument forms in evaluating probabilities
TRANSCRIPT
Inductive Inductive ReasoningReasoning
The role of argument The role of argument forms in evaluating forms in evaluating
probabilities probabilities
Getting StartedGetting Started
First, one becomes interested in First, one becomes interested in something:something:
Getting StartedGetting Started
First, one becomes interested in First, one becomes interested in something:something:
Call it YCall it Y
Getting StartedGetting Started
First, one becomes interested in First, one becomes interested in something: something: YY
Next, one notices some things Next, one notices some things about it: about it:
Getting StartedGetting Started
First, one becomes interested in First, one becomes interested in something: something: YY
Next, one notices some things Next, one notices some things about it: about it: Y has properties a, b, c...nY has properties a, b, c...n
Getting StartedGetting Started
First, one becomes interested in First, one becomes interested in something: something: YY
Next, one notices some things Next, one notices some things about it: about it:
Because we somehow care about or Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question are concerned about Y, a question arises:arises:
Y has properties a, b, c...nY has properties a, b, c...n
Getting StartedGetting Started
First, one becomes interested in First, one becomes interested in something: something: YY
Next, one notices some things about it: Next, one notices some things about it:
Because we somehow care about or are Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises:concerned about Y, a question arises:
Is what we are able to observe Is what we are able to observe personally or find out from someone personally or find out from someone else all we can reasonably believe else all we can reasonably believe about Y?about Y?
Y has properties a, b, c...nY has properties a, b, c...n
The next question is...The next question is...
What else is probably true of Y?What else is probably true of Y?
The next question is...The next question is...
What else is probably true of Y?What else is probably true of Y?
A General Form A General Form of Inductive Reasoningof Inductive Reasoning
We are interested in YWe are interested in Y
We notice: Y has properties a, b, We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...nc...n
A General Form A General Form of Inductive Reasoningof Inductive Reasoning
We are interested in YWe are interested in Y
We notice: Y has properties a, b, We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...nc...n
We recall: X has properties a, b, We recall: X has properties a, b, c...nc...n
A General Form A General Form of Inductive Reasoningof Inductive Reasoning
We are interested in YWe are interested in Y
We notice: Y has properties a, b, We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...nc...n
We recall: X has properties a, b, We recall: X has properties a, b, c...nc...n
We recall: X also has property pWe recall: X also has property p
A General Form A General Form of Inductive Reasoningof Inductive Reasoning
We are interested in YWe are interested in Y
We notice: Y has properties a, b, We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...nc...n
We recall: X has properties a, b, We recall: X has properties a, b, c...nc...n
We recall: X also has property pWe recall: X also has property pIn our minds, these facts resolve themselves into an argument almost automatically.
A General Form A General Form of Inductive Reasoningof Inductive Reasoning
Premise 1: X has properties a, b, Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...nc...n
Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...nc...n
Premise 3: X also has property pPremise 3: X also has property p
Conclusion: Y has property pConclusion: Y has property p
A General Form A General Form of Inductive Reasoningof Inductive Reasoning
Premise 1: X has properties a, b, Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...nc...n
Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...nc...n
Premise 3: X also has property pPremise 3: X also has property p
Conclusion: Y has property pConclusion: Y has property pThis is obviously an inconclusive argument, but sometimes this amount of evidence is all we have to go on.
The The Bottom LineBottom Line For All For All Inductive ReasoningInductive Reasoning
Is the conclusion of Is the conclusion of the argument the argument
more likelymore likely to be to be true than its true than its
contradictory?contradictory?
The The Bottom LineBottom Line For All For All Inductive ReasoningInductive Reasoning
Is the conclusion of Is the conclusion of the argument the argument more more
likelylikely to be true than to be true than its contradictory?its contradictory?
THIS IS IMPORTANT!THIS IS IMPORTANT!