indo-uk programme on climate change impacts in india : delhi workshop, sep. 5-6, 2002 impacts of...

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002

Impacts of Climate Change on Impacts of Climate Change on Water ResourcesWater Resources

G.B. PantG.B. PantINDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL

METEOROLOGYMETEOROLOGY

PunePune


OUTLINEOUTLINE ObjectivesObjectives Research TasksResearch Tasks Indian rainfall variabilityIndian rainfall variability Baseline precipitation analysisBaseline precipitation analysis Precipitation climatology of major river Precipitation climatology of major river

basinsbasins Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation

over major river basinsover major river basins Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of

precipitation over major river basinsprecipitation over major river basins


ObjectivesObjectives Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of

precipitation over major river basins of Indiaprecipitation over major river basins of India Study of past changes in water availability and Study of past changes in water availability and

their sensitivity to climate variability and land-their sensitivity to climate variability and land-use/land-cover changesuse/land-cover changes

Evaluation of regional climate model Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of precipitationsimulations of precipitation

Study of past changes in water qualityStudy of past changes in water quality Development of future scenarios for water Development of future scenarios for water

availability and quality under different climate availability and quality under different climate change scenarioschange scenarios


Research TasksResearch Tasks Identification of target river basinsIdentification of target river basins Baseline precipitation analysis: Precipitation climatology Baseline precipitation analysis: Precipitation climatology

of major river basins; Spatio-temporal variability of of major river basins; Spatio-temporal variability of precipitationprecipitation

Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of monthly/daily Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of monthly/daily precipitation over major river basinsprecipitation over major river basins

Case studies of past changes in water availability and Case studies of past changes in water availability and quality in relation to climate and land-use/land-cover quality in relation to climate and land-use/land-cover changeschanges

Hydrometeorological analysis of HadRM2 simulations for Hydrometeorological analysis of HadRM2 simulations for major river basinsmajor river basins

Water availability scenarios for major river basins Water availability scenarios for major river basins including the scenarios for the impacts of land use and including the scenarios for the impacts of land use and covercover

Identification of critical areas and frequency/impacts of Identification of critical areas and frequency/impacts of extreme eventsextreme events


Mean Rainfall PatternsMean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source: CMAP (1979-2000)

Summer Monsoon(mm/season)

Annual(mm/year)


Indian Summer Monsoon Indian Summer Monsoon Contribution to Annual Rainfall and its VariabilityContribution to Annual Rainfall and its Variability

Data Source : CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source : CMAP (1979-2000)

Monsoon/Annual (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)


The Stability of the Indian Summer MonsoonThe Stability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Years

Ra

infa

ll (c

m)

Mean (R) = 84.8 cmStandard Deviation (S) = 8 cm

R

R+S

R-S


Temporal scales of monsoon Temporal scales of monsoon variabilityvariability

Intraseasonal Interannual Decadal/Century Millennia & longer

Onset/withdrawal; Active and break-monsoon phases;30-50 day oscillations; severe rainstorms

Droughts and floods

Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods

Changes in the areal extents of monsoons

Atmospheric variability;tropical-midlatitude interactions;Soil moisture;Sea surface temperatures

Atmospheric interactions;El Niño/ Southern Oscillation;Top layers of tropical oceans;Snow cover;Land surface characteristics

Monsoon circulation variations;Deep ocean involvement;Greenhouse gases increase;Human activities;Biospheric changes;Volcanic dust

Global climate excursions;Ice ages;Warm epochs;Sun-earth geometry

Fa

cto

rsF

act

ors

Fe

atu

res

Fe

atu

res


Rainfall DataRainfall Data

Homogeneous monthly rainfall Homogeneous monthly rainfall data set for 306 stations (1871-data set for 306 stations (1871-2001)2001)

Daily rainfall data at 500-1000 Daily rainfall data at 500-1000 raingauge stations during 1901-90 raingauge stations during 1901-90 (variable network)(variable network)


Change in Raingauge Network Change in Raingauge Network Density (1871-1992)Density (1871-1992)


Raingauge Network for Daily Rainfall Raingauge Network for Daily Rainfall DataData


All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)2001)

(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)


Long-term Trends Long-term Trends in Indian Summer in Indian Summer Monsoon RainfallMonsoon Rainfall


Major River Basins of Major River Basins of IndiaIndia


Identification of Identification of Target River BasinsTarget River Basins

66 notable river basins66 notable river basins 3 large river basins identified : 3 large river basins identified :

Ganga, Godavari and KrishnaGanga, Godavari and Krishna Summer monsoon main source of Summer monsoon main source of

water for all the three basinswater for all the three basins


Seasona Precipitation : Seasona Precipitation : GANGAGANGA


Seasonal Precipitation : Seasonal Precipitation : GODAVARIGODAVARI


Seasonal Precipitation : Seasonal Precipitation : KRISHNAKRISHNA


Variation of Basin-mean Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: GANGAPrecipitation: GANGA


Variation of Basin-mean Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: GODAVARIPrecipitation: GODAVARI


Variation of Basin-mean Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: KRISHNAPrecipitation: KRISHNA


The Hadley Centre Regional Climate The Hadley Centre Regional Climate ModelsModels

(HadRM2/HadRM3H)(HadRM2/HadRM3H)

High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCMand sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM

Formulation identical to HadAMFormulation identical to HadAM Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° One-way nestingOne-way nesting Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley

Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian regionCentre using HadRM2 for the Indian region HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations

and scenario development will be performed at IITMand scenario development will be performed at IITM


All-India Mean Monthly All-India Mean Monthly RainfallRainfall

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

/day

)

Observed

CTL

GHG (2041-60)


All-India Seasonal RainfallAll-India Seasonal Rainfall

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

/sea

son

)

DJF MAM JJAS ON

Season

Observed

CTL

GHG (2041-60)


All-India mean Surface Air All-India mean Surface Air TemperatureTemperature

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Tem

per

atu

re (

C)

Observed

Control

GHG (2041-60)


HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (Control)(Control)


HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (Control)(Control)


HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-Control)Control)


HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-Control)Control)


State-wise mean State-wise mean precipitation scenarios : precipitation scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL

Year

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

/se

as

on

)

CTL

GHG


State-wise mean monsoon State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


Ra

infa

ll C

ha

ng

e (

% o

f C

TL

)


State-wise Mean State-wise Mean Temperature Scenarios : Temperature Scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Te

mp

era

ture

(C

)

CTL

GHG


State-wise Mean Annual State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Te

mp

era

ture

Ch

an

ge

(C

)


Annual Cycles of Annual Cycles of Rainfall in Major Rainfall in Major River Basins of IndiaRiver Basins of India

0

10

20

30

40

50


Ra

infa

ll (c

m/m

on

th)

Observed

Control

GHG

0

10

20

30

40

50


Ra

infa

ll (c

m/m

on

th)

Observed

Control

GHG

0

10

20

30

40

50


Ra

infa

ll (c

m/m

on

th)

Observed

Control

GHG

GangaGanga

GodavariGodavari

KrishnaKrishna


CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Coupled atmosphere-ocean models consistently indicate Coupled atmosphere-ocean models consistently indicate general warming over India, by about 2° to 4°C from 1990 general warming over India, by about 2° to 4°C from 1990 to 2090.to 2090.

The models also indicate enhanced rainfall conditions over The models also indicate enhanced rainfall conditions over India in a greenhouse gas increase scenario; however, India in a greenhouse gas increase scenario; however, there is some disagreement among the models on rainfall there is some disagreement among the models on rainfall changeschanges

The models consistently indicate substantial increase in The models consistently indicate substantial increase in monsoon precipitation over northwest India.monsoon precipitation over northwest India.

Significant potential for regionalization; work in progress.Significant potential for regionalization; work in progress.

indo-uk programme on climate change impacts in india : delhi workshop, sep. 5-6, 2002 impacts of...

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climate variability

climate change impacts

impacts of climate change

water resources

objectives analysis

impacts of land use

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