Limited room for manoeuvre: Indigenous peoples and adaptation strategies

Jakob Kronik

SeminarClimate Change Adaptation and

Development: Transforming Paradigms and Practices

Friday 23 January at Norad, Oslo

What do these people have in common?

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• 380mio. indigenous peoples (compared to USA 318mio.)

• unique ways of life and connection to land and highly dependency upon natural resources

• marginalized status in the states they live

• among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change

• the conditions necessary for the reproduction of their culture, social structures, and knowledge systems are under severe pressure

Traditional knowledge based adaptation

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• knowledge systems are based on experiments with nature

• juxtaposed with a stock of knowledge developed over time

• and passed on through generations

• The ability to predict and interpret natural phenomena, incl. weather conditions, has been vital for survival and well-being

• and has also been instrumental in the development of local cultural practices, social structures, trust, and authority

Photos: Kasserine, Tunisia

Institutions under pressure

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• However, while the importance and sophistication of indigenous knowledge is well-documented

• by itself it can rarely provide an effective approach to adaptation to climate change and variability today

• because of the increasingly limited room for manoeuvre accorded to indigenous peoples.

Photos: Kasserine, Tunisia

room for manoeuvre is…

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• people’s ability to strategically exploit livelihood options

• constraints to people’s ability to react and adapt to changing conditions, such as…

• limitations on water, arable land, or wild plant and animal resources, and defined by

• Political, legal and economic space and capacity for diversification, that allows for, or limit

• innovations and responses developed locally

Photos: Tozeur, Tunisia

4 dimensions, 5 countries in LAC and MENA

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Colombian Amazon

i) Climate change phenomena and impactii) vulnerabilityiii) Adaptation strategies, and iv) how shifts in CC and other conditions define

peoples room for manouevre

Nicaraguan Caribbean coast

Bolivian Andes

Tunisian arid and semi-arid regions

Syrian Badia – arid steppe region

i) Climate change impact

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Colombian Amazon

Severe drought, irregularity of seasons, profoundly affecting tropical forests

Nicaraguan Caribbean coast

Increased intensity of hurricanes, endangering entire ecosystems, and human lives. Warming & acidification of oceans threaten mangroves and coral reefs.

Bolivian Andes Increasing mean temperatures, causing drought and glacier retreat; variations in seasonality. changes in patterns and intensity of rainfall, hailstorms, frosts.

Tunisian arid and semi-arid regions

Combined impact of increasing temperatures, reduced and variable precipitation and sea-level rise (increasing salt-water intrusion) projected to increase water scarcity and frequency of droughts and flooding.

Syrian Badia – arid steppe region

Greatest warming in summer night-time temperatures, average and extreme minimum temperatures up across the region, increased drought & water scarcity.

ii) vulnerability

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Colombian Amazon

Out of sync seasonal events directly affect livelihoods; unprecedented changes in the timing of frosts, heavy rains, and drought disrupt the agricultural cycle. Traditional knowledge and practices under pressure

Nicaraguan Caribbean coast

Increased intensity of storms limit access to fisheries, forests, arable land, and destroys infrastructure. Increased vulnerability of those relying on mangroves & coral reefs

Bolivian Andes Increase in crop and livestock pests and diseases; reduced ability to produce small-scale crops due to shorter season and fewer viable locations

Tunisian arid and semi-arid regions

Seasonal cycle of arboriculture species is affected by temperature peaks. Oases particularly vulnerable to water scarcity and encroachment by urban areas and sand dunes.

Syrian Badia – arid steppe region

Disturbances in seasonal rhythms affect crop and livestock production and natural forage availability. Longer dry seasons reduce grazing time. Loss of vital social and cultural assets. Migration: livelihood strategy - community resilience.

iii) adaptation strategies

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Colombian Amazon

Livelihood depend on forest and water resources, and fish and game for protein. Those close to urban centres depend on secondary forest horticulture, cash crops, commercial fishing, wage labour, tourism, handicrafts sale.

Nicaraguan Caribbean coast

Heavy direct and indirect reliance on natural resources for all populations. The Miskitu occupy all the productive zones in the area (fishing, agriculture, and hunting)

Bolivian Andes Agriculture, including arable crop and livestock production. Crop production for own consumption and local market sale

Tunisian arid and semi-arid regions

Pastoralism and agriculture, some using the traditional three-tier cultivation system of the oases.

Syrian Badia – arid steppe region

Migratory pastoralism and herd management; intricate use of natural resources and livelihood strategies heavily dependant on cultural, human, and social assets.

iv) How shifts in CC ao.conditions define peoples room for manouevre

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Colombian Amazon

Effects of climate change exacerbated by deforestation and forest fragmentation. Western Colombian Amazon: colonization, armed conflict, illegal crops, and deforestation have had a great impact.

Nicaraguan Caribbean coast

Colonization limit control over resources after hurricane destroyed forest. Coastal communities are slowly inserting themselves into an market economy

Bolivian Andes

Strong indigenist and workers’ unions translate into political, social and legal opportunities; however pressure on NR from mineral & hydrocarbon extraction

Tunisian arid and semi-arid regions

Land degradation due to expansion of crops and arboriculture, overgrazing, etc. Lack of social capital = shame and uncertainty about being able to repay debt.

Syrian Badia – arid steppe region

Traditional herding has become a business, = current lack of resilience to long-term droughts = increased pressure on grazing and water resources = increased dependence on loans from feed traders

Key assets under pressure

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Photos: Douz, Kebili & Zafrane Medenine. Jakob Kronik

Perceived drought intensity

Physical Assets

Financial Assets

Environmental Assets (water)Environmental Assets (grazing)

Cultural Assets

Social_Assets

0

2

4

1990 2010

Bedu perceptions of drought intensity and assessments of key livelihood strategy indicators Badia steppe region of Syria, 1990 and 2010

Some serious cause/ effect relationship between changing climactic conditions and livelihood

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• This combined pressure has extreme effects on social structures:

• – on the formal and informal institutions, networks, relations of trust, kinship, and friendship that constitute the ‘glue’ of rural communities and have crucial implications for livelihoods.

• It undermines ritual practices, joint social memory, and the ability of elders to maintain social order.

• Societal and institutional disintegration – unrest, migration…

Photos: Tozeur, Tunisia

Adaptation within a limited room for manoeuvre - threats and opportunities

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• High level international policy and political economy decisions carry the potential to resolve long-term sustainable development issues for poverty-ridden regions

• however, the development dynamics and actors seems to make local communities ‘more polarized, more uncertain, more worried, and still poor’

Photos: Gafsa, Tunisia

Adaptation within a limited room for manoeuvre – what to do?

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• securing the long-term social, cultural and environmental conditions for sustained indigenous livelihoods.

• real consultation, capacity building and institutional strengthening of the parties involved

• including local and national institutions and their civil servants

• and with full participation

Photos: Gafsa, Tunisia

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• Climate change as one of many factors and linked to holistic subsistence strategies and social structures.

• Cultural and lifestyle losses, loss of identity, self-determination and influence in predictive models about the impact of CC

• Access to information about the global and national dimensions of CC and culturally sensitive institutional support

Photos: Gafsa, Tunisia

Adaptation within a limited room for manoeuvre – What to do?Address:

Rights! But they are not enough

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• secure rights to land and resources, and the capacity to fulfil livelihood aspirations in the territories they inhabit

• Colombian Amazon: the exercise of rights and autonomy, and the practice of cultural livelihood strategies, have proven to be no guarantee for successful adaptation.

Photos: Tozeur, Tunisia

As we struggle to adapt and to prepare for those that are predicted…

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• The world needs approaches to climate change and to ‘development’ that are viewed, not as unidirectional aid,

• but as a collaborative exercise focused on improving the wellbeing of all peoples,

• and recognizing the value of the diversity of human knowledge, culture,

• and adaptive strategies in a rapidly-changing world.

Photos: Douz, Kebili & Zafrane Medenine. Jakob Kronik

Thank you

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Jakob Kronik - jkr@forestsoftheworld.org

Photo: Zafrane