indicators for sustainable energy development: thailand ... · contents woverview of thailand...

65
Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand Case Study Jessie L. Todoc Monaliza Todoc Prof. Thierry Lefevre Centre for Energy Environment Resources Development (CEERD) Bangkok, Thailand International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Third Research Coordination Meeting/Workshop 13-16 September 2004 UNDESA, United Nations New York, U.S.A.

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Page 1: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand Case Study

Jessie L. TodocMonaliza TodocProf. Thierry LefevreCentre for Energy Environment Resources Development (CEERD)Bangkok, Thailand

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Third Research Coordination

Meeting/Workshop13-16 September 2004

UNDESA, United Nations New York, U.S.A.

Page 2: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Contents

w Overview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED)w Energy data capabilityw Major energy priority areasw Energy efficiency policy and programsw Assessment of energy efficiency performance using ISEDw Strategies for improvements in priority areas???w Summary and conclusions

Page 3: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Fast increasing indigenous energy production

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

ktoe

coal

oil

nat gas

hydropower (including non-combustible renewables)combustible renewables

Page 4: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Fast increasing share of natural gas in the indigenous energy mix

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

combustible renewables

hydropower (including non-combustible renewables)

gas

oil

coal

Page 5: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

...but energy imports dependency, particularly on oil, remains high

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Ene

rgy

impo

rts

depe

nden

cy (

%)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Indi

geno

us e

nerg

y pr

oduc

tion

(kto

e)

import dependencyTotal energy production ktoe

Page 6: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

High share of oil in the primary energy mix

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

CRWelectricity net importhydrogasoilcoal

Page 7: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Indigenous natural gas, the main fuel for power generation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Coal Oil Natural gas Hydro

Page 8: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Imported oil dominates final energy demand

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Combustible renewablesElectricityNatural gasOil productsCoal

Page 9: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

...due to high growth in transport and manufacturing final energy demand

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

ktoe

manufacturingtransportresidential&commercialagricultureothers

Page 10: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Successful rural electrification program...

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

resi

dent

ial c

onne

ctio

ns, m

illio

ns

more than 150 kWhless than 150 kWh

Page 11: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

...resulted in high electrification level even in rural areas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000

per

cent

Municipal areas Sanitary areas Non-municipal areas

Note: Thailand provincial administration is divided into municipal, sanitary, and non-municipal areas.

Page 12: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

High (energy and other) data capability...

Demographic and Socio-economic data

National Statistical Office (NSO)•Population and Housing Census

•HSES

•HECS

•Other surveys

Industrial statistics

NSO

Office of Industrial Economics of Thailand

•Industrial Census

•Manufacturing Industry Survey

•Semi-annual statistics

Energy and environment data

Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE)•Power in Thailand•Oil and Thailand•Thailand Energy Situation

Energy Policy and Planning Office•National Load Forecast

EGAT•Power Development Plan•Annual Report

PEA•Annual report

MEA•Annual report

Transport statistics

Ministry of Transport and Communications (MOTC)•annual data on all transport modes

State Railway of Thailand (SRT)

Royal Irrigation Department

Department of Customs

Department of Aviation

Department of Land Transport

Page 13: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

...but still some data are not available

w NSO census and survey do not include statistics on production of various industries

w Office of Industrial Economics of Thailand’s semi-annual report on industrial statistics (production, sale and sales values) covers only few industries, and publication of these statistics started only in mid-1990s

w No data available on passenger-kilometer for road and urban transportw No pipeline transport statistics available in the country w Energy data do not give detailed information beyond the sectoral level

n energy consumption of road transport is not classified into passenger or freight

n energy use of cement, glass, and other non-metallic products industries are lumped together

Page 14: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

International sources of data on Thailand

w ADB’s Key Indicatorsw United Nations’ various statisticsw World Bank’s World Development Indicatorsw IEA/OECD’s Energy Balances and Statistics for Non-OECD

Countries and Energy Prices and Taxes

Page 15: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Major energy priority areas: energy strategies for competitiveness

w Increase energy efficiencyn reduce country’s energy elasticity from the current 1.4:1 to 1:1 by

2007w Develop renewable energy

n increase the share of renewable energy from 0.5% of the commercial primary energy in 2002 to 8% in 2011

w Enhance energy securityn enhance security of electricity supply and energy supply from

indigenous fossil fuelsl expand the availability of domestic energy reserves from 30 years to 50

years

w Develop Thailand as regional energy centern to shift its role from being an energy buyer to energy trader

Page 16: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Focus on energy efficiency

w Thailand has been a good example in terms of energy conservation efficiency policy implementation;

w The policy has been introduced since the 1990s so programs are already in full-scale implementation;

w Energy data is well-established at the aggregate and sectoral level; and

w It is expected that the analytical framework developed in this study can be applied to other countries.

Page 17: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Thailand energy efficiency policy and programs

w Energy Conservation Act of 1992n Energy conservation in factories-designated factoriesn Energy conservation in large buildings-designated buildingsn Efficiency standards for appliances, building materials and control

systems-producers and distributors of energy appliances, equipment, and machineries

w Energy Conservation Programw ENCON Fundw Demand-Side Management (DSM) Program

Page 18: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Energy Conservation Program

NEPO DEDP

Voluntary Complementary Compulsory

Renewable Energy and Rural Industries

Research and Development

Industrial Liaison

Energy Efficient Buildings

Building Code

Human Resource Development

Public Awareness Campaign

Management and Monitoring

EPPO DEDE

Page 19: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

ENCON Fund

w General supportw 30% subsidy and Standard Measures programw Energy Efficiency (EE) Revolving Fund

Page 20: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

DSM phase I (1993-1998)

w 6 sub-programs: Residential Program, Commercial/Governmental Building Program, Industrial Sector Program, Load Management Program, Energy Conservation Attitude Promotion Program, and Program Monitoring and Evaluation

w first three programs focused on energy-efficient appliances, particularly lighting equipment, high-efficiency refrigerators and air-conditioners, and high-efficiency motors

w Total budget of US$189 million, of which GEF = US$15.5 million, OECF = US$25 million in concessional loans, and EGAT

DSM targeted reductions (1993)l 238 MW peak demand l 1,427 GWh generation

l 1.16 million tons of CO2

emissions

DSM achieved reductions (1998)l 468 MW peak demand l 2,194 GWh generationl 1.64 million tons of CO2

emissions

Page 21: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

DSM phase II (2002-2006)

u 13 sub-programsu 330 green learning rooms to create awareness of energy

conservation in the curriculumu 632 MW peak demand saving u 2,508 GWh energy savingu 1.85 million tons of CO2 emissionsu program will cost Baht 2,155 million (USD53.875 m): Baht 1,700

million (USD 42.5 m) for the 13 DSM programs and Baht 455 million (USD 11.375 m) for the attitude creation programs

Page 22: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

ISED framework to assess energy efficiency performance

EnvironmentalState

EconomicState

Social State

Institutional State

Policy Responses

Driving

force

s from

econo

mic dim

ension

Driving forces from energy sector of economic dimension

Driving forces from

social dimension

State ofenergy sector

Impact fromenergy sector

Impact fromenergy sector

EnvironmentalState

EconomicState

Social StateSocial State

Institutional State

Policy Responses

Institutional State

Policy Responses

Driving

force

s from

econo

mic dim

ension

Driving forces from energy sector of economic dimension

Driving forces from

social dimension

State ofenergy sector

Impact fromenergy sector

Impact fromenergy sector

Page 23: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

ISED framework for Thailand

Structure of manufacturing value added of energy-intensive industries

Demographic data

Transport structure andmodal mix

Car ownership

GDP per capita

Aggregate final energy intensity by GDPSectoral energy intensity:

Manufacturing; transport; residential; commercialSub-sectoral energy intensities:

freight energy intensity; specific energy/electricityintensity of energy intensive industries; commercialsector energy intensity by floor area; commercial sector electricity intensity by employee; traditional energy intensity per capita household; per capita

residential electricity intensity; modern fuel energy intensity per capita household

Sectoral energy mix

Sectoralquantities of green house gas emissions:

• CO2• CO• NOX• CH4 • SO2• SPM

Sectoral carbon dioxide intensity per capita

Fraction of disposable income/private consumption per capita spent on fuel and electricity by: •average•population, group of 20% poorest population

STATE OF SOCIAL DIMENSION

•Fraction of households: heavily dependent on non-commercial

energy; without electricity

Distance traveled per capita

Floor area per capita

Share of sectors in GDP value added

Energy prices

Economic dimension

Social dimension

Environmental dimension

Indirect driving force

Direct driving force

State indicator

Institutional dimension

Ratio of daily disposable income of poorest 20% household to price of: electricity, main fuel used for cooking, kerosene used for lighting

Structure of manufacturing value added of energy-intensive industries

Demographic data

Transport structure andmodal mix

Car ownership

GDP per capita

STATE OF ECONOMIC DIMENSION

Aggregate final energy intensity by GDPSectoral energy intensity:

Manufacturing; transport; residential; commercialSub-sectoral energy intensities:

freight energy intensity; specific energy/electricityintensity of energy intensive industries; commercialsector energy intensity by floor area; commercial sector electricity intensity by employee; traditional energy intensity per capita household; per capita

residential electricity intensity; modern fuel energy intensity per capita household

Sectoral energy mix

Sectoralquantities of green house gas emissions:

• CO2• CO• NOX• CH4 • SO2• SPM

Sectoral carbon dioxide intensity per capita

Fraction of disposable income/private consumption per capita spent on fuel and electricity by: •average•population, group of 20% poorest population

STATE OF SOCIAL DIMENSION

•Fraction of households: heavily dependent on non-commercial

energy; without electricity

Distance traveled per capita

Floor area per capita

Share of sectors in GDP value added

Energy prices

Economic dimension

Social dimension

Environmental dimension

Indirect driving force

Direct driving force

State indicator

Institutional dimension

Response indicator

Ratio of daily disposable income of poorest 20% household to price of: electricity, main fuel used for cooking, kerosene used for lighting

INSTITUTIONAL DIMENSION

Promotion of Energy Efficiency and Conservation

STATE OFENVIRONMENTAL

DIMENSION •Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas

•Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas

Page 24: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

ISED Indicators Used

1 Population2 GDP per capita3 End-use energy prices w/ and w/o tax/subsidy4 Sectoral share in GDP (sectoral GVA)5 Distance traveled per capita6 Freight transport activity8 Manufacturing value added by selected energy intensive industries9 Sectoral energy intensity10 Final energy intensity of selected energy-intensive products

Note: In bold are ISED core indicators.

Page 25: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

ISED Indicators Used (cont.)

20 Ratio of daily disposable income/private consumption per capita of poorest 20% of population

21 Fraction of disposable income22 Fraction of households heavily dependent on non-commercial

energy23 Quantities of air pollution emissions24 Ambient concentration26 Quantities of GHG (CO2) emissions

Note: In bold are ISED core indicators.

Page 26: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Key Derived Indicators

w Employment populationw Commercial area per employeew Car/motorcycle ownershipw Per capita transport energy consumptionw Service sector specific energy consumption per unit of floor spacew Service sector specific electricity sector consumption per employeew Floor area per capitaw Residential sector energy and electricity intensity by private consumptionw Proportion of households using traditional and modern fuels by type of

fuelw Pollutants and GHG emissions from from manufacturing and

residential/commercial sectorsw Sectoral CO2 intensity

Page 27: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Energy efficiency indicators

The Energy Efficiency Indicator PyramidEfficiency Analysis

LevelData Aggregation

Level

International statistics

National statistics

Individual plant data

National energy intensity(MJ/$ GDP)

Sectoral energy Intensity(MJ/$ VA)

(sub) sectoral(GJ/tonne product or MJ/$)

Individual plant efficiency(GJJ/tonne

Unit operation efficiency(GJ/tonne )

Efficiency Analysis Level

Data Aggregation Level

National energy intensity(MJ/$ GDP)

(MJ/$ VA)

(sub) efficiency

Individual plant efficiency)

Unit operation efficiency

Page 28: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Economic Dimension

Structure of manufacturing value added of energy-intensive industries

Demographic data

Transport structure andmodal mix

Car ownership

GDP per capita

Sectoral energy mix

Distance traveled per capita

Floor area per capita

Share of sectors in GDP value added

Energy prices

Structure of manufacturing value added of energy-intensive industries

Demographic data

Transport structure andmodal mix

Car ownership

GDP per capita

STATE OF ECONOMIC DIMENSION

Sectoral energy mix

Distance traveled per capita

Floor area per capita

Share of sectors in GDP value added

Energy prices

Aggregate final energy intensity by GDPSectoral energy intensity

manufacturing, transport, residential, commercial

Sub-sectoral energy efficiency indicatorsfreight energy intensity; specific

energy/electricity consumption of energy intensive industries; commercial sector specific energy consumption by floor area; commercial

sector specific electricity consumption per employee; traditional energy consumption per

capita household; per capita residential electricity consumption; modern fuel energy

consumption per capita household

Social Dimension

Environment Dimension

Page 29: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Aggregate and sectoral energy intensity

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

0.070

0.080

0.090

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Ene

rgy

Inte

nsity

(to

e/10

00 B

aht)

Manufacturing Transport Commercial Agriculture Residential Total Final

Page 30: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Energy intensity of manufacturing

0.0000

0.0050

0.0100

0.0150

0.0200

0.0250

1980

1981

1982

19

83

1984

19

85

1986

19

87

1988

19

89

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

toe/

'000

Bah

t

Manufacturing energy intensity

10.42%

8.03%

13.36

10.18

-0.96%

1.36%

Page 31: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Energy intensity of manufacturing subsectors

0.0000

0.0200

0.0400

0.0600

0.0800

0.1000

0.1200

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

En

erg

y In

ten

sity

(to

e/10

00 B

aht)

Food & beverages Textiles Wood Paper ChemicalsNon-metallic Basic metals Fabricated metals Others Total

Page 32: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Energy intensity in non-metallic minerals manufacturing

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

mill

ion

bah

t 19

88 p

rice

s

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

kto

e

Non-metallic mineralsEnergy consumption

12.29%

11.62% -6.36

8.84%

18.91%

-7.46

Page 33: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Transport sector energy intensity

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

0.070

0.080

0.090

1980

1981

1982

19

83 19

84 19

85 19

86 19

87 19

88 19

89 19

90 19

91 19

92 19

93 19

94 19

95 19

96 19

97 19

98 19

99 20

00

Tran

spor

t fin

al e

nerg

y in

tens

ity (t

oe/'0

00 B

aht)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Frei

ght t

rans

port

spec

ific

ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(mto

e/to

n-km

)

Total final energy intensity Freight energy intensity

Page 34: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Service sector energy efficiency indicators

0.0000

0.0005

0.0010

0.0015

0.0020

0.0025

0.0030

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Ser

vice

sec

tor e

nerg

y in

tens

ity (t

oe/'0

00B

aht)

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Ene

rgy

inte

nsity

by

floor

spa

ce (t

oe/m

2)

Service sector final energy intesity Energy intensity by floor space

Page 35: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Residential sector energy and electricity intensity

0.0000

0.0020

0.0040

0.0060

0.0080

0.0100

0.0120

0.0140

1983

19

84

1985

19

86

1987

19

88

1989

19

90

1991

19

92

1993

19

94

1995

19

96

1997

19

98

1999

20

00

electricity intensity (kWh/baht)

energy intensity (toe/'000baht)

Page 36: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Residential sector electricity intensity

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

1983

19

84

1985

19

86

1987

19

88

1989

19

90

1991

19

92

1993

19

94

1995

19

96

1997

19

98

1999

20

00

mill

ion

bah

t 198

8 p

rice

s

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

GW

h

private consumptionexpendituresresidential electricityconsumption

Page 37: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Residential sector energy intensity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

kto

e

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

m b

aht

1988

pri

ces

energy consumption

private consumptionexpenditures

Page 38: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Household energy consumption

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Kgo

e/hh

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

KW

h/hh

Residential sector final energy intensity Residential electricity intensityTraditional fuel energy intensity Modern fuel energy intensity

Page 39: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Decomposition of aggregate energy intensity

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

ktoe

0.900

0.920

0.940

0.960

0.980

1.000

1.020

1.040

1.060

1.080

toe/

1000

Bah

t (19

90=1

.00)

Structural effect

Pure intensity effect

Aggregate energy intensity

Page 40: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

The economic driving forces

Structure of manufacturing

Transport structure and

Car ownership

GDP per capita

Distance traveled per capita

Share of sectors in

Energy prices

Structure of manufacturing value added of energyintensive industries

Transport structure andmodal mix

Car ownership

GDP per capita

STATE OF ECONOMIC DIMENSION

Sectoral energy mix

Distance traveled per capita

Floor area per capita

Share of sectors in GDP value added

Energy prices

Demographic data

Page 41: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Structure of GDP

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

1980 19811982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 19881989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19961997 1998 1999 2000

Manufacturing Transport (including communication)Services Agriculture Others

Page 42: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

GDP growth

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000pe

rcen

t

Page 43: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Car and motorcycle ownership

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

cars per 100 persons

motorcyle per 100 persons

Page 44: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Floor area per employee

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

squa

re m

eter

/em

ploy

ee

Page 45: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

The social dimension

Fraction of disposable income/private consumption per capita spent on fuel and electricity by: •average•group of 20% poorest population

•Fraction of households: heavily

energy; without electricity

Ratio of daily disposable income of poorest 20%

for cooking, kerosene used for lighting

Fraction of disposable income/private consumption per capita spent on fuel and electricity by: •average population•

STATE OF SOCIAL DIMENSION

•Fraction of households: heavily dependent on non-commercial

energy; without electricity

Ratio of daily disposable income of poorest 20% household to price of: electricity, main fuel usedfor cooking, kerosene used for lighting

Environmental Dimension

Economic Dimension

Energy Prices

Page 46: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Household structure for cooking

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

% household using modern fuel % household using traditional fuel

Page 47: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Proportion of households using each type of fuel for cooking

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

%

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Kerosene Gas Electricity Charcoal Wood Others

Page 48: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Structure of residential energy consumption

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

%

LPG Kerosene Electricity Fuelwood Charcoal Paddy husk

Page 49: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Fraction of households electrified

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

% of household without electricity % of household with electricity

Page 50: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Daily kWh consumption of the poorest 20% population

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

KW

h/da

y/ho

useh

old

& h

ouse

hold

per

cap

ita

KWh/day/household KWh/day/household per capita

Page 51: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Daily consumption of LPG

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Gig

ajou

le/d

ay/h

ouse

hod

& h

ouse

hold

per

cap

ita

Gj/day/household Gj/day/household per capita

Page 52: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Fraction of disposable income spent on fuel and electricity

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

%

Average population Group of 20% poorest population

Page 53: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

The Environment Dimension

Sectoral quantities of green house gas emissions:

• CO2• CO• NOX• CH4 • SO2• SPM

Sectoral carbon dioxide intensity per capita

STATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL

DIMENSION

•Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas

Sectoral quantities of green house gas emissions:

• CO2• CO• NOX• CH4 • SO2• SPM

Sectoral carbon dioxide intensityper capita

•Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas

States of

Economic

and

Social

Dimensions

Page 54: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Ambient concentration of pollutants

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

CO

con

cent

ratio

n (p

pm)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

TS

P c

once

ntra

tion

(mg/

m3)

CO concentration TSP (road side air quality) TSP (Ambient air quality)

Page 55: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

GHG emissions

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Tho

usan

d T

ons

CO2 CO NOX CH4 SO2 SPM

Page 56: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Sectoral CO2 emissions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

%

Transport Manufacturing Res-com

Page 57: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Sectoral CO2 intensity

CO2 Intensity

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

ManufacturingTransportResidential-Commercial

Page 58: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Synthesis: energy efficiency achievements

0.000.200.40

0.600.80

1.001.20

1.40Manufacturing energy intensity

Transport energy intensity

Commercial energy intensityResidential energy intensity

Agriculture energy intensity

1990 2000

Page 59: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Synthesis: progress towards economic sustainability

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50GDP per capita

KWh per household

Car ownershipShare of manufacturing to GDP

Share of energy intensiveindustries to total industrial GVA

19902000

Page 60: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Synthesis: progress towards social sustainability

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Share of households usingmodern fuels for cooking

Share of households withelectricity

KWh use by 20% poorestpop/day

Fraction of dispossable incomeof 20% poorest/private

consumption spent on fuel &electricity

GJ of LPG by 20% poorestpop/day

19902000

Page 61: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Synthesis: progress towards environment sustainability

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40CO2 emissions

CO2 intensity for manufacturing

CO2 intensity for residential andcommercial

CO2 intensity for transport

19902000

Page 62: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Overall assessment of sustainable energy development

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.40

Aggregate energy intensity

Fraction of dispossable incomeof 20% poorest/private

consumption spent on fuel &electricity

Aggregate carbon energyintensity

GDP per capita

1990 2000

Page 63: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Strategies for improvements in priority areas???

Programme/Sector 2006 2011 Units

Total energy saved 1142.21 1862.8 ktoe/yrTotal value of energy saved 20574.55 32509.97 M baht/yr 12.91%

B. Energy Conservation in TransportationTotal energy saved 2792.28 7094.65 ktoe/yr

Total value of energy saved 51304.35 129563.55 M baht/yr 51.46%

C. Renewable Energy 1645.17 5068.89 ktoe/yrTotal value of energy saved 33005.39 89691.87 M baht/yr 35.63%

D. Grand Total Energy Saved 5579.66 14026.34 ktoe/yr

E. Grand Total Value of Energy Saved 104884.29 251765.39 M baht/yr 100.00%

A. Energy Conservation in Factories, Buildings, and Households

Target

Page 64: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Strategies for improvements in priority areas???

C. Renewable Energy 1645.17 5068.89 ktoe/yrPercentage of total energy demand 3.52 9.39 %Savings by type of NRSE

solar 24.16 71.61 ktoe/yrwind 0.87 2.64 ktoe/yrbiogas 37.86 125.32 ktoe/yrbiomass 630.14 1098.56 ktoe/yrhydro 19.22 22.82 ktoe/yrgeothermal 0.39 3.06 ktoe/yrfuel cells 0.22 0.38 ktoe/yrbiodiesel/ethanol 877.51 3678.67 ktoe/yrothers (waste-to-energy) 55 66 ktoe/yr

Total value of energy saved 33005.39 89691.87 M baht/yr 35.63%

Page 65: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand ... · Contents wOverview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED) wEnergy data capability wMajor energy priority areas wEnergy

Conclusion: value of ISED framework

w Analysis of policy effectivenessw Environmental and social “implications” of energy policyw Future policy responsesw Methodology compatible with other frameworksw Offers flexibility to derive more indicators when necessary