indicators for sustainable energy development: thailand ... · contents woverview of thailand...
TRANSCRIPT
Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development: Thailand Case Study
Jessie L. TodocMonaliza TodocProf. Thierry LefevreCentre for Energy Environment Resources Development (CEERD)Bangkok, Thailand
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Third Research Coordination
Meeting/Workshop13-16 September 2004
UNDESA, United Nations New York, U.S.A.
Contents
w Overview of Thailand energy situation (using ISED)w Energy data capabilityw Major energy priority areasw Energy efficiency policy and programsw Assessment of energy efficiency performance using ISEDw Strategies for improvements in priority areas???w Summary and conclusions
Fast increasing indigenous energy production
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
ktoe
coal
oil
nat gas
hydropower (including non-combustible renewables)combustible renewables
Fast increasing share of natural gas in the indigenous energy mix
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
combustible renewables
hydropower (including non-combustible renewables)
gas
oil
coal
...but energy imports dependency, particularly on oil, remains high
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Ene
rgy
impo
rts
depe
nden
cy (
%)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Indi
geno
us e
nerg
y pr
oduc
tion
(kto
e)
import dependencyTotal energy production ktoe
High share of oil in the primary energy mix
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
CRWelectricity net importhydrogasoilcoal
Indigenous natural gas, the main fuel for power generation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Coal Oil Natural gas Hydro
Imported oil dominates final energy demand
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Combustible renewablesElectricityNatural gasOil productsCoal
...due to high growth in transport and manufacturing final energy demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
ktoe
manufacturingtransportresidential&commercialagricultureothers
Successful rural electrification program...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
resi
dent
ial c
onne
ctio
ns, m
illio
ns
more than 150 kWhless than 150 kWh
...resulted in high electrification level even in rural areas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000
per
cent
Municipal areas Sanitary areas Non-municipal areas
Note: Thailand provincial administration is divided into municipal, sanitary, and non-municipal areas.
High (energy and other) data capability...
Demographic and Socio-economic data
National Statistical Office (NSO)•Population and Housing Census
•HSES
•HECS
•Other surveys
Industrial statistics
NSO
Office of Industrial Economics of Thailand
•Industrial Census
•Manufacturing Industry Survey
•Semi-annual statistics
Energy and environment data
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE)•Power in Thailand•Oil and Thailand•Thailand Energy Situation
Energy Policy and Planning Office•National Load Forecast
EGAT•Power Development Plan•Annual Report
PEA•Annual report
MEA•Annual report
Transport statistics
Ministry of Transport and Communications (MOTC)•annual data on all transport modes
State Railway of Thailand (SRT)
Royal Irrigation Department
Department of Customs
Department of Aviation
Department of Land Transport
...but still some data are not available
w NSO census and survey do not include statistics on production of various industries
w Office of Industrial Economics of Thailand’s semi-annual report on industrial statistics (production, sale and sales values) covers only few industries, and publication of these statistics started only in mid-1990s
w No data available on passenger-kilometer for road and urban transportw No pipeline transport statistics available in the country w Energy data do not give detailed information beyond the sectoral level
n energy consumption of road transport is not classified into passenger or freight
n energy use of cement, glass, and other non-metallic products industries are lumped together
International sources of data on Thailand
w ADB’s Key Indicatorsw United Nations’ various statisticsw World Bank’s World Development Indicatorsw IEA/OECD’s Energy Balances and Statistics for Non-OECD
Countries and Energy Prices and Taxes
Major energy priority areas: energy strategies for competitiveness
w Increase energy efficiencyn reduce country’s energy elasticity from the current 1.4:1 to 1:1 by
2007w Develop renewable energy
n increase the share of renewable energy from 0.5% of the commercial primary energy in 2002 to 8% in 2011
w Enhance energy securityn enhance security of electricity supply and energy supply from
indigenous fossil fuelsl expand the availability of domestic energy reserves from 30 years to 50
years
w Develop Thailand as regional energy centern to shift its role from being an energy buyer to energy trader
Focus on energy efficiency
w Thailand has been a good example in terms of energy conservation efficiency policy implementation;
w The policy has been introduced since the 1990s so programs are already in full-scale implementation;
w Energy data is well-established at the aggregate and sectoral level; and
w It is expected that the analytical framework developed in this study can be applied to other countries.
Thailand energy efficiency policy and programs
w Energy Conservation Act of 1992n Energy conservation in factories-designated factoriesn Energy conservation in large buildings-designated buildingsn Efficiency standards for appliances, building materials and control
systems-producers and distributors of energy appliances, equipment, and machineries
w Energy Conservation Programw ENCON Fundw Demand-Side Management (DSM) Program
Energy Conservation Program
NEPO DEDP
Voluntary Complementary Compulsory
Renewable Energy and Rural Industries
Research and Development
Industrial Liaison
Energy Efficient Buildings
Building Code
Human Resource Development
Public Awareness Campaign
Management and Monitoring
EPPO DEDE
ENCON Fund
w General supportw 30% subsidy and Standard Measures programw Energy Efficiency (EE) Revolving Fund
DSM phase I (1993-1998)
w 6 sub-programs: Residential Program, Commercial/Governmental Building Program, Industrial Sector Program, Load Management Program, Energy Conservation Attitude Promotion Program, and Program Monitoring and Evaluation
w first three programs focused on energy-efficient appliances, particularly lighting equipment, high-efficiency refrigerators and air-conditioners, and high-efficiency motors
w Total budget of US$189 million, of which GEF = US$15.5 million, OECF = US$25 million in concessional loans, and EGAT
DSM targeted reductions (1993)l 238 MW peak demand l 1,427 GWh generation
l 1.16 million tons of CO2
emissions
DSM achieved reductions (1998)l 468 MW peak demand l 2,194 GWh generationl 1.64 million tons of CO2
emissions
DSM phase II (2002-2006)
u 13 sub-programsu 330 green learning rooms to create awareness of energy
conservation in the curriculumu 632 MW peak demand saving u 2,508 GWh energy savingu 1.85 million tons of CO2 emissionsu program will cost Baht 2,155 million (USD53.875 m): Baht 1,700
million (USD 42.5 m) for the 13 DSM programs and Baht 455 million (USD 11.375 m) for the attitude creation programs
ISED framework to assess energy efficiency performance
EnvironmentalState
EconomicState
Social State
Institutional State
Policy Responses
Driving
force
s from
econo
mic dim
ension
Driving forces from energy sector of economic dimension
Driving forces from
social dimension
State ofenergy sector
Impact fromenergy sector
Impact fromenergy sector
EnvironmentalState
EconomicState
Social StateSocial State
Institutional State
Policy Responses
Institutional State
Policy Responses
Driving
force
s from
econo
mic dim
ension
Driving forces from energy sector of economic dimension
Driving forces from
social dimension
State ofenergy sector
Impact fromenergy sector
Impact fromenergy sector
ISED framework for Thailand
Structure of manufacturing value added of energy-intensive industries
Demographic data
Transport structure andmodal mix
Car ownership
GDP per capita
Aggregate final energy intensity by GDPSectoral energy intensity:
Manufacturing; transport; residential; commercialSub-sectoral energy intensities:
freight energy intensity; specific energy/electricityintensity of energy intensive industries; commercialsector energy intensity by floor area; commercial sector electricity intensity by employee; traditional energy intensity per capita household; per capita
residential electricity intensity; modern fuel energy intensity per capita household
Sectoral energy mix
Sectoralquantities of green house gas emissions:
• CO2• CO• NOX• CH4 • SO2• SPM
Sectoral carbon dioxide intensity per capita
Fraction of disposable income/private consumption per capita spent on fuel and electricity by: •average•population, group of 20% poorest population
STATE OF SOCIAL DIMENSION
•Fraction of households: heavily dependent on non-commercial
energy; without electricity
Distance traveled per capita
Floor area per capita
Share of sectors in GDP value added
Energy prices
Economic dimension
Social dimension
Environmental dimension
Indirect driving force
Direct driving force
State indicator
Institutional dimension
Ratio of daily disposable income of poorest 20% household to price of: electricity, main fuel used for cooking, kerosene used for lighting
Structure of manufacturing value added of energy-intensive industries
Demographic data
Transport structure andmodal mix
Car ownership
GDP per capita
STATE OF ECONOMIC DIMENSION
Aggregate final energy intensity by GDPSectoral energy intensity:
Manufacturing; transport; residential; commercialSub-sectoral energy intensities:
freight energy intensity; specific energy/electricityintensity of energy intensive industries; commercialsector energy intensity by floor area; commercial sector electricity intensity by employee; traditional energy intensity per capita household; per capita
residential electricity intensity; modern fuel energy intensity per capita household
Sectoral energy mix
Sectoralquantities of green house gas emissions:
• CO2• CO• NOX• CH4 • SO2• SPM
Sectoral carbon dioxide intensity per capita
Fraction of disposable income/private consumption per capita spent on fuel and electricity by: •average•population, group of 20% poorest population
STATE OF SOCIAL DIMENSION
•Fraction of households: heavily dependent on non-commercial
energy; without electricity
Distance traveled per capita
Floor area per capita
Share of sectors in GDP value added
Energy prices
Economic dimension
Social dimension
Environmental dimension
Indirect driving force
Direct driving force
State indicator
Institutional dimension
Response indicator
Ratio of daily disposable income of poorest 20% household to price of: electricity, main fuel used for cooking, kerosene used for lighting
INSTITUTIONAL DIMENSION
Promotion of Energy Efficiency and Conservation
STATE OFENVIRONMENTAL
DIMENSION •Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas
•Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas
ISED Indicators Used
1 Population2 GDP per capita3 End-use energy prices w/ and w/o tax/subsidy4 Sectoral share in GDP (sectoral GVA)5 Distance traveled per capita6 Freight transport activity8 Manufacturing value added by selected energy intensive industries9 Sectoral energy intensity10 Final energy intensity of selected energy-intensive products
Note: In bold are ISED core indicators.
ISED Indicators Used (cont.)
20 Ratio of daily disposable income/private consumption per capita of poorest 20% of population
21 Fraction of disposable income22 Fraction of households heavily dependent on non-commercial
energy23 Quantities of air pollution emissions24 Ambient concentration26 Quantities of GHG (CO2) emissions
Note: In bold are ISED core indicators.
Key Derived Indicators
w Employment populationw Commercial area per employeew Car/motorcycle ownershipw Per capita transport energy consumptionw Service sector specific energy consumption per unit of floor spacew Service sector specific electricity sector consumption per employeew Floor area per capitaw Residential sector energy and electricity intensity by private consumptionw Proportion of households using traditional and modern fuels by type of
fuelw Pollutants and GHG emissions from from manufacturing and
residential/commercial sectorsw Sectoral CO2 intensity
Energy efficiency indicators
The Energy Efficiency Indicator PyramidEfficiency Analysis
LevelData Aggregation
Level
International statistics
National statistics
Individual plant data
National energy intensity(MJ/$ GDP)
Sectoral energy Intensity(MJ/$ VA)
(sub) sectoral(GJ/tonne product or MJ/$)
Individual plant efficiency(GJJ/tonne
Unit operation efficiency(GJ/tonne )
Efficiency Analysis Level
Data Aggregation Level
National energy intensity(MJ/$ GDP)
(MJ/$ VA)
(sub) efficiency
Individual plant efficiency)
Unit operation efficiency
Economic Dimension
Structure of manufacturing value added of energy-intensive industries
Demographic data
Transport structure andmodal mix
Car ownership
GDP per capita
Sectoral energy mix
Distance traveled per capita
Floor area per capita
Share of sectors in GDP value added
Energy prices
Structure of manufacturing value added of energy-intensive industries
Demographic data
Transport structure andmodal mix
Car ownership
GDP per capita
STATE OF ECONOMIC DIMENSION
Sectoral energy mix
Distance traveled per capita
Floor area per capita
Share of sectors in GDP value added
Energy prices
Aggregate final energy intensity by GDPSectoral energy intensity
manufacturing, transport, residential, commercial
Sub-sectoral energy efficiency indicatorsfreight energy intensity; specific
energy/electricity consumption of energy intensive industries; commercial sector specific energy consumption by floor area; commercial
sector specific electricity consumption per employee; traditional energy consumption per
capita household; per capita residential electricity consumption; modern fuel energy
consumption per capita household
Social Dimension
Environment Dimension
Aggregate and sectoral energy intensity
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.090
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Ene
rgy
Inte
nsity
(to
e/10
00 B
aht)
Manufacturing Transport Commercial Agriculture Residential Total Final
Energy intensity of manufacturing
0.0000
0.0050
0.0100
0.0150
0.0200
0.0250
1980
1981
1982
19
83
1984
19
85
1986
19
87
1988
19
89
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
toe/
'000
Bah
t
Manufacturing energy intensity
10.42%
8.03%
13.36
10.18
-0.96%
1.36%
Energy intensity of manufacturing subsectors
0.0000
0.0200
0.0400
0.0600
0.0800
0.1000
0.1200
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
En
erg
y In
ten
sity
(to
e/10
00 B
aht)
Food & beverages Textiles Wood Paper ChemicalsNon-metallic Basic metals Fabricated metals Others Total
Energy intensity in non-metallic minerals manufacturing
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
mill
ion
bah
t 19
88 p
rice
s
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
kto
e
Non-metallic mineralsEnergy consumption
12.29%
11.62% -6.36
8.84%
18.91%
-7.46
Transport sector energy intensity
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
0.090
1980
1981
1982
19
83 19
84 19
85 19
86 19
87 19
88 19
89 19
90 19
91 19
92 19
93 19
94 19
95 19
96 19
97 19
98 19
99 20
00
Tran
spor
t fin
al e
nerg
y in
tens
ity (t
oe/'0
00 B
aht)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Frei
ght t
rans
port
spec
ific
ener
gy c
onsu
mpt
ion
(mto
e/to
n-km
)
Total final energy intensity Freight energy intensity
Service sector energy efficiency indicators
0.0000
0.0005
0.0010
0.0015
0.0020
0.0025
0.0030
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ser
vice
sec
tor e
nerg
y in
tens
ity (t
oe/'0
00B
aht)
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
Ene
rgy
inte
nsity
by
floor
spa
ce (t
oe/m
2)
Service sector final energy intesity Energy intensity by floor space
Residential sector energy and electricity intensity
0.0000
0.0020
0.0040
0.0060
0.0080
0.0100
0.0120
0.0140
1983
19
84
1985
19
86
1987
19
88
1989
19
90
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
electricity intensity (kWh/baht)
energy intensity (toe/'000baht)
Residential sector electricity intensity
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
1983
19
84
1985
19
86
1987
19
88
1989
19
90
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
mill
ion
bah
t 198
8 p
rice
s
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
GW
h
private consumptionexpendituresresidential electricityconsumption
Residential sector energy intensity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
kto
e
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
m b
aht
1988
pri
ces
energy consumption
private consumptionexpenditures
Household energy consumption
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Kgo
e/hh
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
KW
h/hh
Residential sector final energy intensity Residential electricity intensityTraditional fuel energy intensity Modern fuel energy intensity
Decomposition of aggregate energy intensity
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
ktoe
0.900
0.920
0.940
0.960
0.980
1.000
1.020
1.040
1.060
1.080
toe/
1000
Bah
t (19
90=1
.00)
Structural effect
Pure intensity effect
Aggregate energy intensity
The economic driving forces
Structure of manufacturing
Transport structure and
Car ownership
GDP per capita
Distance traveled per capita
Share of sectors in
Energy prices
Structure of manufacturing value added of energyintensive industries
Transport structure andmodal mix
Car ownership
GDP per capita
STATE OF ECONOMIC DIMENSION
Sectoral energy mix
Distance traveled per capita
Floor area per capita
Share of sectors in GDP value added
Energy prices
Demographic data
Structure of GDP
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
1980 19811982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 19881989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19961997 1998 1999 2000
Manufacturing Transport (including communication)Services Agriculture Others
GDP growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000pe
rcen
t
Car and motorcycle ownership
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
cars per 100 persons
motorcyle per 100 persons
Floor area per employee
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
squa
re m
eter
/em
ploy
ee
The social dimension
Fraction of disposable income/private consumption per capita spent on fuel and electricity by: •average•group of 20% poorest population
•Fraction of households: heavily
energy; without electricity
Ratio of daily disposable income of poorest 20%
for cooking, kerosene used for lighting
Fraction of disposable income/private consumption per capita spent on fuel and electricity by: •average population•
STATE OF SOCIAL DIMENSION
•Fraction of households: heavily dependent on non-commercial
energy; without electricity
Ratio of daily disposable income of poorest 20% household to price of: electricity, main fuel usedfor cooking, kerosene used for lighting
Environmental Dimension
Economic Dimension
Energy Prices
Household structure for cooking
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
% household using modern fuel % household using traditional fuel
Proportion of households using each type of fuel for cooking
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Kerosene Gas Electricity Charcoal Wood Others
Structure of residential energy consumption
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
%
LPG Kerosene Electricity Fuelwood Charcoal Paddy husk
Fraction of households electrified
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
% of household without electricity % of household with electricity
Daily kWh consumption of the poorest 20% population
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
KW
h/da
y/ho
useh
old
& h
ouse
hold
per
cap
ita
KWh/day/household KWh/day/household per capita
Daily consumption of LPG
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Gig
ajou
le/d
ay/h
ouse
hod
& h
ouse
hold
per
cap
ita
Gj/day/household Gj/day/household per capita
Fraction of disposable income spent on fuel and electricity
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
%
Average population Group of 20% poorest population
The Environment Dimension
Sectoral quantities of green house gas emissions:
• CO2• CO• NOX• CH4 • SO2• SPM
Sectoral carbon dioxide intensity per capita
STATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL
DIMENSION
•Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas
Sectoral quantities of green house gas emissions:
• CO2• CO• NOX• CH4 • SO2• SPM
Sectoral carbon dioxide intensityper capita
•Ambient concentration of pollutants in urban areas
States of
Economic
and
Social
Dimensions
Ambient concentration of pollutants
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
CO
con
cent
ratio
n (p
pm)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
TS
P c
once
ntra
tion
(mg/
m3)
CO concentration TSP (road side air quality) TSP (Ambient air quality)
GHG emissions
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Tho
usan
d T
ons
CO2 CO NOX CH4 SO2 SPM
Sectoral CO2 emissions
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
%
Transport Manufacturing Res-com
Sectoral CO2 intensity
CO2 Intensity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
ManufacturingTransportResidential-Commercial
Synthesis: energy efficiency achievements
0.000.200.40
0.600.80
1.001.20
1.40Manufacturing energy intensity
Transport energy intensity
Commercial energy intensityResidential energy intensity
Agriculture energy intensity
1990 2000
Synthesis: progress towards economic sustainability
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50GDP per capita
KWh per household
Car ownershipShare of manufacturing to GDP
Share of energy intensiveindustries to total industrial GVA
19902000
Synthesis: progress towards social sustainability
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Share of households usingmodern fuels for cooking
Share of households withelectricity
KWh use by 20% poorestpop/day
Fraction of dispossable incomeof 20% poorest/private
consumption spent on fuel &electricity
GJ of LPG by 20% poorestpop/day
19902000
Synthesis: progress towards environment sustainability
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40CO2 emissions
CO2 intensity for manufacturing
CO2 intensity for residential andcommercial
CO2 intensity for transport
19902000
Overall assessment of sustainable energy development
0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.40
Aggregate energy intensity
Fraction of dispossable incomeof 20% poorest/private
consumption spent on fuel &electricity
Aggregate carbon energyintensity
GDP per capita
1990 2000
Strategies for improvements in priority areas???
Programme/Sector 2006 2011 Units
Total energy saved 1142.21 1862.8 ktoe/yrTotal value of energy saved 20574.55 32509.97 M baht/yr 12.91%
B. Energy Conservation in TransportationTotal energy saved 2792.28 7094.65 ktoe/yr
Total value of energy saved 51304.35 129563.55 M baht/yr 51.46%
C. Renewable Energy 1645.17 5068.89 ktoe/yrTotal value of energy saved 33005.39 89691.87 M baht/yr 35.63%
D. Grand Total Energy Saved 5579.66 14026.34 ktoe/yr
E. Grand Total Value of Energy Saved 104884.29 251765.39 M baht/yr 100.00%
A. Energy Conservation in Factories, Buildings, and Households
Target
Strategies for improvements in priority areas???
C. Renewable Energy 1645.17 5068.89 ktoe/yrPercentage of total energy demand 3.52 9.39 %Savings by type of NRSE
solar 24.16 71.61 ktoe/yrwind 0.87 2.64 ktoe/yrbiogas 37.86 125.32 ktoe/yrbiomass 630.14 1098.56 ktoe/yrhydro 19.22 22.82 ktoe/yrgeothermal 0.39 3.06 ktoe/yrfuel cells 0.22 0.38 ktoe/yrbiodiesel/ethanol 877.51 3678.67 ktoe/yrothers (waste-to-energy) 55 66 ktoe/yr
Total value of energy saved 33005.39 89691.87 M baht/yr 35.63%
Conclusion: value of ISED framework
w Analysis of policy effectivenessw Environmental and social “implications” of energy policyw Future policy responsesw Methodology compatible with other frameworksw Offers flexibility to derive more indicators when necessary