increasing relevance of meteorological informations for various stake holders including growers

Increasing relevance of meteorological informations for various stake holders including growers

Tanja LiksoHead of Department for Climate

MonitoringMeteorological and Hydrological Service

Zagreb, Croatia

Outlines

Hystorical review Meteorological and hydrological

observations Climate monitoring Weather prediction Agrometeoroloy Climate change and Croatia Strategic goals

Figure 1. Geographical location of Croatia in Europe.

Historical review

Beginning of meteorological

observations in 1851 at Dubrovnik

Continuous meteorological observations

at Zagreb-Grič since 1862

The first hydrological station was

established in 1817 at Stara Gradiška

Hystorical review

Meteorological Service was established in 1947

In 1992 Croatia became a member of WMO

Meteorological and hydrological observations

Over 500 clasic weather and hydrological stations

Figure 2. Development of meteorological station network in Croatia.


Figure 3. Current meteorological observation network.

40 main meteorological stations

114 ordinary meteorological stations


Figure 4. Current hydrological observation network.

Several hundred stations

Available data base


67 automatic stations

2 upper air radiosounding systems

Figure 5. Current automatic station network.


wind speed and wind speed and direction up to 1000 m direction up to 1000 m

1 mobile sodar1 mobile sodarREMOTE SENSING MEASUREMENTS

5 radars


USER ORIENTED OBSERVATIONS

Climate monitoring

Air temperature trend in Croatia is in accordance with the global warming trend which is mainly a consequence of greehouse gasses concentration rise due to fossil fuel burning in energy production, industry, transport, etc.

Figure 6. Global surface air temperature anomalies.

Climate monitoring

Figure 7. Annual air temperature anomalies for Zagreb-Grič main meteorological station.

Climate monitoring

Figure 8. Annual precipitation anomalies for Zagreb-Grič main meteorological station.

Figure 9. Air temperature anomalies for Croatia in 2012.

Climate monitoring

Figure 10. Precipitation amounts for Croatia in December 2012.

Climate monitoring

Climate monitoring

Figure 11. Average annual air temperature for Zagreb-Grič during the period 1862-2012.

Climate monitoring

The average annual air temperature for the year 2012 is 13.7°C - the second warmest year since the beginning of observatioins, i.e. 1862

Air temperature trend at Zagreb-Grič is in accordance with the global warming trend with a cetrain inter-annual fluctuations

Weather prediction (NWP) Nowcasting Nowcasting 0-3 0-3 hours hours LAMLAM (LACE, ALADIN) up to (LACE, ALADIN) up to 7272 hours hours

Medium range forecasts Medium range forecasts up to up to 1010 days days

Long-range Ensemble Prediction up to Long-range Ensemble Prediction up to 66 months months

Regional climate modeling Regional climate modeling up to up to 2525 years years

Air pollution models Air pollution models up to up to 7272 hours hours

Weather prediction (NWP) Nowcasting by means of EUMETSAT satellite images

ALADIN/HR – ALADIN/HR – OPERATIVE PROGNOSTIC OPERATIVE PROGNOSTIC MODELMODEL

Resolution

8 x 8 km

Forecasting period

00+72 hours

Model run

00 and 12 UTC

Weather prediction (NWP)

ALADIN/HR - time vertical cross-sectiontime vertical cross-sectionss and and meteogramsmeteograms


Medium-range forecasts - ECMWF


Long-range Ensemble weather prediction


Agrometeorology

Agricultural reports – warnings, desciption of weather conditions and forecasts for different regions in Croatia

It is made on weakly basis and updated twice a week

Agrometeorology

Agricultural meteorology data for the past 7 days:

Air temperature (°C) – max., min., min at 5 cm

Precipitation: RR (mm), vs (cm) Relative humidity (%) Total sunshine duration (h) Soil temperature – at two depths (5 cm

and 20 cm) in °C - max and min value

Agrometeorology

Since 1951 – soil temperature has been measured systematically at a number of meteorological stations.

At first, soil temperature was only measured down to a depth of 20 cm during the vegetation period.

Soil temperature measurements:

2, 5, 10, 20, 30 , 50 and 100 cm depth

Observing times:

07 am, 2 pm and 9 pm CET

Agrometeorology

Agrometeorology

Figure 12. Extreme temperatures

Figure 13. Total sunshine duration

Agrometeorology

Figure 14. Total precipitation amounts

Agrometeorology

Climate change and Croatia

The Croatian economy has many sectors that are directly influenced by climate and therefore may be affected by climate change

In Croatia temperature are already increasing, in some areas rainfall appears to be decreasing, and there apper to be more extreme weather events – especially droughts and heat waves


Climate model suggest if emissions of CFC compounds continue to increase, the period between 2040-2070 will be between 3 and 3.5°C warmer throughout Croatia during the summer

By the end of the century, increase in temperature would be more severe


Tourism Most model predict that climate change will create uncommfortably hot summers along the Adriatic coast which may cause many tourist to avoid these destinations. Instead, tourist will visit locations in Northern Europe which will become more attractive with climate change.

However, the spring and autumn seasons are more attractive for tourists at the Croatian

coast.


Coastal zone and sea-level rise Global sea level is expected to rise between 9 and 88 cm by 2100 – though large-scale melting of ice in the Antarctic or in Greenland could mean that sea level woud rise much higher


According to the approximation, the total amount of land submerged with sea-level rise of 50 cm would be over 100 million square metres.

Hoever, there is a lot of uncertainity about sea-level rise and it will occur slowly, meaning that there will be time to adapt. At the same time, plans for infrastructure and long-term investments should consider possible sea-level rise


Figure 15. Sea surface during stormy wind.


Health impacts The future health risks of climate change in Croatia are not fully understood because there has not been sufficient research. However, the effects may include:

- higher cardiovascular risk due to heat waves - increases in allergic reaction and increased frequences of heat stroke - increases in vector-borne illneses carried by mosquitoes and other organisms


In the summer 2003, it is estimated that 185 additional deaths occured due to the heat wave

While heat related health problems may occur, deaths due to cold weather may decrease during the winter time.


Water resources Climate change is expected to result in changes to evaporation, soil humidity, ground water recharge, and the amount of water flowing through the rivers

Agriculture In the future, crop models predict that maize production will likely be affected by climate change – resulting in losses of between 6-16 million EUR in 2050


Fishing and mariculture Marine fish populations in the Adriatic are already showing fluctuations and changes in behaviour/migration patterns due to climate

It is expected that climate change will change the growing season and rearing time for farmed fish such as tuna


In addition to the migration of existing species of commercial fish, there is the potential for increase of invasive species

Fishing fleets are interested in having available sea surface temperature – it helps them to find fish shoals

Strategic goals

MARINE METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE SPLIT

SUB-REGIONAL WIS CENTRE

Vision

To be the WMO Information System (WIS) Centre

on meteorological information relevant for marine safety and the related tasks for the (eastern) Adriatic

Strategic goals

RADAR AND LIGHTNING NETWORK Radar network on the Adriatic sea Modernization of the old radars National and international radar

network radar composite Lightning detection system integrated

with neighbouring countries

Strategic goals

IMPROVEMENT OF THE EXISTING ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE

Climate Monitoring and Prediction proactive role in global climate change

and research adaptation and mitigation Air Quality Monitoring Public Relation and Relation with the

Users

Strategic goals

Strenghtening of the units responsible for warnings

Outsourcing of the hail suppression activities to local authorities

New law on the meteorological and hydrological activities (the role and duties of the Meteorological and Hydrological Service)

Strategic goals

NEW NEW HEADQUARTER BUILDINGHEADQUARTER BUILDING

THANK YOU

increasing relevance of meteorological informations for various stake holders including growers

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