incompleteness for startups
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Incompleteness for Startups
By Max Skibinsky
Few Essay's
Startup-Russia.com
1. The Ultimate Theorem
Gödel 1st Incompleteness Theorem
• Ultimate Theorem • Why everything evolves • Why Everything is
subject to change • Why things gets more
complex over time
Gödel 1st Incompleteness Theorem
Any … theory (*) cannot be both consistent and!complete. For any!consistent… formal theory (*), there is an … statement that is true,!but not provable in the theory
Gödel Statement
G: True yet Un-Provable in SYSTEM H
Gödel 1st Incompleteness Theorem
Nobody CAN BE TOLD WHAT THE MATRIX IS…
SMALL BROTHER: Turing Halting Problem
Given a description of a computer program, its impossible to write a program to decide whether the program finishes running or continues to run forever
Sketch Proof
Let say Halt(software,data) exits. Returns True or False What about G(s) = If Halt(s, s) then LoopForever else Stop Think what happens if you try to compute G(G). • If Halt(G,G) halts then it loops. • If Halt(G,G) say it loops it will halt.
Subcase
Recursion Proof based on
Proof related to
Cantor Diagonal Proof
�Related
You Can Not Formalize The
�
You Can Not Formalize The
�• Anything known K: always can build recursion G(K) that is “bigger”
• A^n + b^n != c^n : halt or not? • You never know enough (bad) • There is always room to know/invent more (good)
2. Marketplaces
Marketplace: Set of Formal Rules
• Collect Underpants • ? [data] • Profits!
Marketplace: Sets of Formal Rules
1. Put software in the cardboard box 2. Bundle browser with OS 3. Cut oxygen supply to competitors 4. … 1923. Profits!
Gödel Statement
G: True yet Un-Provable
New G
• Put software in the box • … • Profits!
• Create search engine • Sell all words for bids • Profits!
There is always another G
• Put software in the box • Sell words for bids • Profits!
• Create friends graph • … • Profits!
• Put game in the box • … • Profits!
• Give away free game • Ask for money • Profits!
Gödel Statements
• Profitable yet un-provable by old rules • Include G New Theory New G’s
• Infinite number of G’s
• No formal discovery system
Startups
• Success: find at least one G • Compete in old system: #epicFail • Many fails: no sure way to a new G • Quick experiments, fast pivots
The First Cycle
Attempts at G
New G
3. Scale Free Laws
Scale Free Laws
You can NOT understand the scale by looking at surroundings
• Also known as Power Laws • Generate long tails
Scale Free: Terrain
Scale Free: Terrain
Scale Free: Terrain
Scale Free: Terrain
ground near NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander
Startup Scale Free Variables
• Traffic • Users • Revenues
Scale Free Example
50 Users
5 Users
Scale Free Example
$1,000,000,000 revenue
$100,000,000
Startup Life Cycle
CASE STUDY
• Founded: ’07. Valuation ’11: $10,000,000,000 • 2009 revenue: $270,000,000 • 2010 revenue: $700,000,000+
Startup: first G
May ‘07
Dec ‘07
Life Cycle: Multiple Gs
07 ‘08
‘09
Scale Free: Time
Scale Free: Time
New hit (G): growth in 3 months
• 3 months: +1 month • 4 month: +2 months • 5 month: +5 months • 18 month: +4.3 years
Scale Free: Time
You are… where?
`
? ?
?
M&A Aspects
• x100 vs x4 • Mature: teams (cheap) or rev stream • Startups: G search • Big: profitable ops
Summary
• Startup jumps on G-events • Big wins: sequential G. • Can’t discover by method • Impact & time : scale free graph • M&A: Decide between G and g+1
[email protected] facebook.com/lordmax
Must Read
• Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, • On Intelligence, Incompletness • Guns, Germs & Steel, Collapse • The Red Queen • Poor Charlie Almanac Ubiquity • Evolution of Cooperation • Nexus • Social Atom • The Wisdom of the Crowds
• Tipping Point • The Blind Watchmaker • The God Dellusion • Genome • Elegant Universe • The Trouble with Physics • The Road to Reality • Freakonomics
Russian Specifics
Myths
• Russian Engineers are best in the world? – Not anymore
• Russian entrepreneurs are most tenacious? – Good luck flogging dead horses for years
• Russian entrepreneurs are most scrappy? – If scrappy long enough to notice its not working – If G exploding and you are scrappy you are an idiot
Default Rule
When in doubt, use rule #1: If its feels natural its probably
wrong
Russian “System”
• Penalize failure == 0 discovery • Hierarchical: formalized! • Process dominated: formalized! • Don’t fence inherited problems:
SOLVE THEM
Russian “System”
• Soldier vs creativity • Status vs meritocracy • Masculine vs balanced • Micromanaged vs free form • Endless list
Job #1 : G Discovery
• Everything else is secondary • First G: Life • Sequential Gs: Future • Free form, uncertain, non-process,
creative, meritocratic, human driven