improving the models, sacog perspectives sustainable communities implementation challenges and...
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![Page 1: Improving the Models, SACOG Perspectives Sustainable Communities Implementation Challenges and Opportunities UC Davis Policy Forum Gordon Garry March 5,](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051517/56649ecb5503460f94bd97ee/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Improving the Models, SACOG PerspectivesSustainable CommunitiesImplementation Challenges and Opportunities
UC Davis Policy Forum Gordon Garry March 5, 2014 Research Director
Sacramento Area Council of Governments
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2012 MTP/SCS Highlights
• Do more with less• Per capita VMT, GHG, and
heavy congestion declines• Sweet spot for transit
– (Service levels and Housing & Job Density)
• Rural UrbanConnections Strategy
• Research commitments to further improve future plans
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My definitions for this discussion
• Implementation of SB375 means development of RTP/SCSs at MPOs with partnerships with city/county/transit operators/Caltrans and stakeholders.– Not implementation of the RTP/SCS (policies
and investments over the life of the RTP/SCS). • Travel demand models are discussed here.• Other models are important to SCSs.
– Land use scenario planning, Economic land use-transportation, Regional economic and demographic forecasting, Vehicle emissions, Health outcomes, RHNA allocations.
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What is the state of the models?
• Tour-based models implemented in larger MPOs are a significant improvement.
• Trip-based models still used in other regions are improved but have inherent limitations.
• Forecasting vs. policy-driven aspirational nature of the models.
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Are they capable of representing & quantifying demand side policies?
• Pricing is not in SACOG SCS.• Good to better examples
– Household travel choices that consider road and transit systems, demographics, land use growth patterns.
• Rudimentary/poor examples– TDM used published effectiveness rates with post-processing.– Household economics (jobs-housing fit, housing choice,
location, costs). – Interregional travel.
• Additional considerations– Supply side - transportation technologies in rapid flux – Beyond SB375: freight and commercial demand are
rudimentary at best.
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Are they capable of assessing costs/benefits of SB375 implementation?• No. SB375 is transportation and land use
impacts. • The set of models and data in the SCS process is
not sufficient. • Transportation has early costs and later benefits,
residential and commercial development even more, analysis must include a stream of costs & benefits.
• Transportation is a supporting, not determining factor in economic growth and land use growth pattern.
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What does the state of modeling mean for state/regional/local agencies that use them to inform policy decisions?
• The quality of the answers may finally be up to the quality of the questions.
• Better models can answer most policy oriented questions at varying geographic scales.
• Better models provide useful data and information on impacts of packages of investments. – Depends on a significant set of assumptions are known and
agreed upon.
• Investment in data, tools, analytical abilities pays off in integrated plans and policies.
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What further model development is needed and who is doing this?
• Dynamic networks (DTA). • Economic land use-transportation models.
– Big 4 MPOs are developing and testing.• Vehicle Choice.
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Do the models have a role to play in public education?
• Yes, with caveats. If as much attention is paid to communication and outreach as to data, models, analysis.
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Thank You.
Questions?
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An absolute reduction in the amount of heavy congestion typical residents will experience in their daily lives.
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Regi
on
Cent
er/
Corr
idor
s
Esta
blis
hed
Dev
elop
ing
Rur
al R
esid
enta
l
-60%
-20%
20%
60%
VMT per Capita Difference from 2008 Regional
Average
2008 2035
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Share of new homes and jobs near high-frequency transit
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Regi
on
Cent
er/
Corr
...
Esta
blis
hed
Dev
elop
ing
Rur
al R
esid
e...
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Transit Mode Share Difference from 2008 Regional
Average
2008 2035
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New homes 2008–2035