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PRESENTED BY :

KODS SHILI

Plan

III. Improving decision making in crisis :the steps

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I. Introduction

II. Decision making : the bases

1) Leveraging the human strengths

2) Mitigating the decision derailers

3) Mitigating actions 4) Stimulating the

skills

Introduction THE BELIEF

Logical + Rational decision

Intended results achieved

A.SMITH ( 1776):

Economic choices are made in a

rational manner

Most decisions are not logical or well analyzed

Individual’s decision making is based on

consistent and predictable behaviours

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Intuitive approach Cognitive

approach

Introduction

Structured Analytic Disciplined

More effort

Easy way Cognitively lazy ones

Less effort

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Timeliness

Quality

Characteristics of effective decisions

Introduction

Respect of Decision timeline

Awareness of human

behaviour

Understanding of the decision-

making environment

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How to make decisions in crisis ? 6

II. Decision making : the bases

OODA Loop (John Boyd) 7

II. Decision making : the bases

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II. Decision making : the bases

Cynefin sense-making framework (Snowden & CO) 9

UN

-OR

DER

ED A

REA

O

RD

ERED

AR

EA

DISORDER

III. Improving decision making in crisis: the steps

1) Leveraging the human strengths

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Human strengths

Cognitive diversity

Critical thinking

+ information + diverse perspectives

+ problem-solving techniques

+ effectiveness

Asking the hard questions Demanding

supporting data Testing logic &

rationality

+ potential

solutions

How to palliate decision derailers ? 11

2) Mitigating the decision derailers

Altered perspectives

• framing

• Compelling stories

• Recent events

Organizational speed bumps

• Excessive optimism

• overconfidence

Appeal to authority

• Sunflower reflex

• Champion bias

Resistance

• Escalating commitment

• Anchoring

• Loss aversion

Information pathologies

• Confirmation bias

• Information bias

• WYSIATI

• Failure to communicate 12

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How to reduce the impact of decision

derailers during crisis ?

Take advantage of cognitive diversity and Commit to critical thinking

Learn to recognize and understand the decision derailers

Do not commit to information or decisions before necessary and do not delay decisions

beyond timeline

Identify the largest number of options practical and keep them open as long as practicable

Revisit decision as often as the evolving situation indicates

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3) Mitigating actions

4) Stimulating the skills

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