importance of decision making measure regulation influence
TRANSCRIPT
Importance of Decision Making
• Measure
• Regulation
• Influence
Impact
Process
Assess/Understand
Thinking
Perceptual Issues
What Makes Making a (Good) Decision so Difficult?
• Multiple Criteria
– conflicting values
• Intangibles
– Unknowables, Unmeasurables
• Uncertainty
• Consequences– Long/Short ; Near/Far ; Intended/Unintended
• Our Knowledge is Always Incomplete
• Our Knowledge is influenced by Perception
What do you see?
What do you see now?
Paris
in the
the Spring
Types of Decisions Managers Make
• Programmed
• Non-Programmed
A company was losing money. Key managers were asked to investigate the
decline in sales• Marketing Manager framed the problem…
– a lack of advertising & promotional support
• Sales Manager framed the problem…– a lack of promotion and distributor support programs
• Manufacturing framed the problem…– inaccurate forecasting by marketing and sales,
causing poor production planning
• Finance framed the problem…– budget overruns by all departments and unreliable
forecasts by marketing
Some Decision Traps• (Mis-) Framing
– limiting our questions
• Anchoring
– disproportionate wt to 1st info, biasing subsequent thinking
• Status Quo
– decisions tend to involve the least change
• Confirming Evidence
– use of (only) data that confirms pt of view
• Escalation of Commitment
– “throwing good $ after bad”, “avoid being wrong in the past”
• Overconfidence
– never doubting what one believes
– fear of admitting that you don’t know
Decisions are Made:
• Individually
• Individually But With the Consultation of Others
• Group
Group Decision Making
• GroupThink
• Debating Group
• Ideal Group Process
GroupThink
ConvergentThought
Problem A Conclusion
Discussion& Debate
Problem
No Action Decision Process
Ideal Decision Process
Problem Dialogue Discussion Action
Divergent Thinking
Convergent Thinking
Ways of Dealing with Problems• Avoid making a decision
– simply ignore an issue exists
• Reactive in making a decision
– event level mgmt, problems of the day, circumstance directed
• Proactive in making a decision
– anticipate, prevention, problems=opportunity
Ways to Find a Solution• Logical/Rational Thinking
– reductionistic, one-at-a-time, mechanical, memory based
• Intuitive Thinking
– connecting many, relationships, flexible, less reliance on mechanical thinking, creative
Confidence vs UncertaintyD
egre
e of
Con
fide
nce
Amount of Uncertainty
Types of Problems Managers Face• Structured
– familiar, constant circumstances
• Unstructured
– ambiguity, not logically apparent
• Crises
– isolate and identify real issue, time is short, full information is lacking
Common Mistakes in Problem Solving
• Deciding on the Focus
• Confusing Symptoms for the Problem
• Selecting the Wrong Problem
A Problem Solving Process• Identify & Define the Problem
• Analyze the Potential Causes & Gather Information
• Generate Possible Solutions
• Evaluate & Select a Course of Action
• Implement the Solution
• Monitor and Follow Up & If not solved, return to step 2 above
Given the following symptoms, what is the problem and what is your plan for its resolution?
PersonalFinancialWorries
BalancingWork & Family
Little or norecognitionof achievement
Poor InternalCommunication
PoorLeadership
Burdened w/work hrs & load
Insuff. Resources
Lack ofMgt Support
Co.Politics
What is Creativity?• An Attitude
– willingness to embrace doubt, uncertainty, curious
– willingness to suspend judgment
• An Ability– to generate new ideas, to be playful with ideas– to seek challenge– constructive discontent
• A Process– it takes time, it is not the result of a single
stroke of brilliance
The Creative Process
Preparation Incubation
Elaboration
Evaluation
Insight
Creativity• Preparation
– Knowledge– Non-mechanical thinking
• Incubation & Insight– Unconscious thinking– Intuition– Creative Leap
• Evaluation & Elaboration: Development– Seeking the logic of it all– Reality altering check
Critical vs Creative Thinking
• Analytic• Linear• Objective• Rational• Logical• Convergent• Left Brain
• Generative• Non-Linear• Subjective• Non-Rational• Non-Logical• Divergent• Right Brain
Obstacles to Creativity• Looking for the Right Answers• Trying to be Logical• Strictly following The Rules & Tradition• Avoiding Ambiguity• Having an Expert Mind vs Beginners Mind• Fearing Failure• Forgetting How To Play• Believing “You’re not Creative”• Failure to Express (& Be Playful with) Ideas• Failure to be Open, Flexible & Tolerant to Different
Ideas– prejudice, stereotype thinker, rigid