8/12/2019 Implications of Developing Bio-fuels for Heavy Vehicles

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mplications of Developing Bio-fuels for Heavy Vehicles

Stefan Danielsson (qbj164 )

Ioana Bejan (cpz597)

Energy Systems and Climate Mitigation

Friday, June 13 2014

Concluding remarks

Closed market approach (DK national only)

The benefit (from avoiding fossil diesel CO2) offsetsthe cost (price increase &prod. loss ) pr ha, after y. 2020 in the high yield scenarios because of combinedhigher carbon taxes and better land utilization.

2.5% discount rate scenarios increase benefit only slightly but the CO2costsare 4-6 times higher compared to 5%. The worst case yield scenario is veryunfavorable after 2020.

Convenient to tax fuels accordingly (activate free market) vs. setting %-mixgoals

Somewhat lower costs expected if 2013 rapeseed area were used (177.705ha)

Open market approach (global) - Perspectivation

Expanded system: Eliminating domestic prod. loss (keep same food oildemand) => compensative expansion of global land areas increase footprint asCO2sinks are cut (ILUC !). This will increase CO2costs => reduce NPV in an LCAperspective.

Intensification of compensating land in fertile regions => increases NVP?

Calculationsssumptions:

Only biodiesel represents all renewables from directives

LCA (upstream CO2 accounting)no CO2neutrality from biomass

Fixed rapeseed land area in DK in period (2012-2050)

Price elasticity of demand (cooking oil) = 0.25 (0.23-0.29)

DK domestic good transport (rapeseed agriculture) stable (not boosting economy)

actors disregarded:

2ndgeneration recycling of commerce-used cooking oil for energy use

Sensitivity to different price elasticity

Compensation for the food demand unlike the bioenergy demand

*Total: 127.316 ha (2012) rape-seed for food and energy

**Year (% mix of biofuel in fossil diesel)

18% 3% 1%25% 4% 2%

255%

38%

20%

100% 100% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

400 (min.) 2700 (av.) 5000 (max.)

Scenarios of land intensity/oil yield (L/ha)

2015 (7%)

2020 (10%)

2050 (100%

Total

1 Total ind.rasp 2012 (ha) 2013 (ha)

127.316 177.705

2 Transportation mio. t*km t*km L / t*km

2010 10.573 10.573.000.000 0,013

3 Needed to provide transport

Fossil diesel

CO2 fossil (pr L)

Bio diesel

CO2 bio (pr L)

Biodiesel used

(barrels)

DK production

1 2,7 0,944 0,63 159 27000

L kg CO2 L kg CO2 L barrels

137.449.000 369.076.019 129.751.856 82.224.232 4.293.000

erences:

eseed land area:www.dst.dk/nytudg/17348

king oil elasticity:http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/IPs/Vegetable%20Oil_IP.pdf

Transportation:http://www.trm.dk/~/media/Files/Publication/2012/Ngletal%20for%20transport%202011%20-%20Forside-Blank-Indhold.pdf

diesel CO2 saving coeff.:http://www.biodiesel.org/using-biodiesel/handling-use/emissions-calculator

Bio-mix Directives:http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/politik/dansk-klima-energipolitik/denmark2011_unsecured-3.pdfial cost of carbon:http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/scc.html

2/gallon:http://efw.bpa.gov/environmental_services/Document_Library/Big_Eddy-Knight/pdf/BEK_FEIS_Volume2_Appendix_G_Greenhouse_Gases.pdf

sel density:http://www.iocl.com/Products/DieselSpecifications.pdf

ck cons.:https://www.landbrugsinfo.dk/Maskiner-markteknik/Transport-og-laesning/Sider/Lastbil_fem_gange_mere_braendstofoekonom.aspx

king oil sales: http://www.dst.dk/pukora/epub/upload/10671/indu.pdf

rgy value, crops: Energy Systems & Climate Mitigation, Presentation Biomass Conversion technologies, slide 46

Case description

s a part of planning renewable energy supply case, a simple sustainability

ssessment is performed on the food-for-energy-use issue, using social, economical

nd environmental instruments with a general screening:

cope: Danish diesel trucks (transportation sector: 26% of total CO2).

ey: trade-off between the limited land area for rape-seed production

bjective: Study how scenarios of a marginal biodiesel production/use affects

ocietys willingness to accept a cooking oil price increase (decrease in rapeseed

upply) in favor of a marginally lower CO2emission. A simple CBA scenario analysis

onsiders society benefit of this transformation while fulfilling the EU 2050 GHGoal, compared to using fossil fuel diesel.

Land area Scenarios - land used for energy (from total)

2012 data L/ha

L 400 2.700 5.000

9.082.630 2015 7% 18% 3% 1%

12.975.186 2020 10% 25% 4% 2%

129.751.856 2050 100% 255% 38% 20%

Benefits from avoiding CO2 from fossil (DKK)

CO2 discount 5% CO2 discount 2.5%

DKK per

ton CO2 Gross benefit

DKK per ton

CO2

Gross

benefit

2015 66 1.395.996 335 2.399.039

2020 71 2.160.470 373 3.820.484

2050 154 46.533.196 571 58.430.924

*Using price elasticities from Scenario: 400 2700 500

Assumes 0% biofuel use in 2006. Price

Cooking oil tons L kr/L

2006 117.627 127.855.435 8 8 8

2015 124.477.245 11 11 11

2020 119.778.771 14,4 11,5 11,3

2050 74.567.504 146,1 27,1 19,5

Gross benefit from CO2 reduction

DKK / ha

used 400 2700 5000

Discount 5% 2.5% 5% 2.5% 5% 2.5%

2015 184 938 1.245 6.329 2.305 11.720

2020 136 714 921 4.817 1.705 8.920

2050 7 26 48 178 89 330

Loss in production ,discounted

DKK / ha

left 400 2700 5000

Discount 5% 2.5% 5% 2.5% 5% 2.5%

2015 338 347 286 292 282 289

2020 531 613 329 380 317 366

2050 -5.787 -13.780 2.671 6.360 1.505 3.582

-15000,0

-13000,0

-11000,0

-9000,0

-7000,0

-5000,0

-3000,0

-1000,0

1000,0

3000,0

5000,0

7000,0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

NPV (Net Present Value) in DKK pr. hectar

400 (5%) 400 (2.5%)

2700 (5%) 2700 (2.5%)

5000 (5%) 5000 (2.5%)

Fuel Food

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