Implications of Artificial Intelligence on

Universal Basic Income

Tony Czarnecki Managing Partner, Sustensis

www.sustensis.co.uk London, 2nd June 2018

I dedicated two chapters to UBI in that book – one covers the negative and the other - the positive impact of AI on UBI which I will explore now

My UBI journey

Exponential Change Immature ‘Superintelligence’

By 2030 we must have in place a global

fool-proof way of total control over AI

Deeper rationale for considering AI and UBI

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/managing-with-immature-ai/ Pictures: https://www.dreamstime.com/stock-illustration-simple-people-exponential-growth-chart-sparse-vector-illustration-generic-cartoon-character-up-image45594904

This 2030 horizon must be

considered in all political

and social initiatives

Three major tasks regarding the global approach to AI

1. Maintain full control over the goals of immature Superintelligence

2. Establish the long-term coexistence framework with Superintelligence,

which may include:

• Morphing humans gradually into Transhumans

• Ensuring ‘purely biological humans’ can live their lives as before if they wish

• Letting benevolent Superintelligence decide Humanity’s future

3. Maximise the benefits and minimize the costs arising from deploying AI

It is the last task where AI and UBI could impact each other

Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

This gap is to rise almost exponentially

The first impact of AI on UBI: Technological Unemployment A

I trigg

ere

d

Te

chn

olo

gica

l U

ne

mp

loy

me

nt

Knee curve

We need to prepare for Technological Unemployment right now to

minimize such risks

Which jobs will most likely disappear by 2030?

Driveless cars Flying Drones - 1 Flying Drones - 2 3D Printers Contour CraftingBig Data & Artificial

Intelligence - 1

Big Data & Artificial

Intelligence - 2

Mass Energy

StorageRobots

Drivers Public Safety Agriculture36. Plastic press

operatorsHome Construction Writing Financial Services Energy sector Retail

1. Taxi Driver 7. Traffic cops20. Crop monitors/

consultants37. Machinis ts 41. Carpenters 47. News reporters

62. Financia l

planners/advisors

77. Energy

planners86. Retai l clerks

2. Limo driver 8. Meter maids21. Spraying

services

38. Shipping &

receiving

42. Concrete

workers48. Sports reporters 63. Accountants

78. Environmental

des igners87. Checkout clerks

3. Bus drivers9. Traffic court

judges22. Shepherds

39. Union

representatives

43. Home

remodel ing

49. Wal l s treet

reporters64. Tax advisors

79. Energy

auditors88. Stockers

4. Rental car

personnel

10. Traffic court

lawyers

23. Wranglers/

herders

40. Warehouse

workers44. Ci ty planners 50. Journal is ts 65. Auditors

80. Power plant

operators

89. Inventory

control lers

11. Traffic court DAs24. Varmint

exterminators

45. Homeowner

insurance agents51. Authors 66. Bookkeepers 81. Miners 90. Sign spinners

Delivery

Positions

12. Traffic court

support s taffSurveying

46. Real estate

agentsLegal Services

82. Oi l wel l

dri l lers ,

roughnecks ,

5. Truck drivers25. Land and field

surveyorsMilitary 67. Lawyers 83. Geologis ts Medical

6. Mai l carriers Miscelaneous26. Environmental

engineers52. Mi l i tary planners

68. Compl iance

officers/workers84. Meter readers 91. Surgeons

13. Parking lot

attendants27. Geologis ts 53. Cryptographers 69. Bi l l col lectors

85. Gas/propane

del ivery

92. Home

healthcare

14. Valet

attendantsEmergency Rescue 93. Pharmacis ts

15. Car wash

workers

28. Emergency

response teamsMedical Miscelaneous 94. Veterinarians

16. Courier service29. Search and

rescue teams54. Dieti tians

70. Meeting/event

planners

17. Food del ivery 30. Fi refighters 55. Nutri tionis ts 71. Cost estimators Maintenance

18. Pizza del ivery News Services 56. Doctors 72. Fi tness coaches 95. Pa inters

19. Postal del ivery31. Mobi le news

trucks57. Sonographers 73. Logis ticians 96. Janitors

Remote Monitoring 58. Phlebotomists74. Interpreters/

trans lators97. Landscapers

32. Construction

s i te monitors59. Radiologis ts

75. Customer

service reps98. Pool cleaners

33. Bui lding

inspectors60. Psychotherapis ts 76. Teachers

99. Grounds

keepers

34. Securi ty guards61. Counselors/

psychologis ts100. Exterminators

35. Parole officers 101. Lumberjacks

Tony Czarnecki based on: Thomas Frey - http://www.futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/101-endangered-jobs-by-2030/

We’ve been there before…

Scale Spread Speed

Disruption of

supply-delivery chain

Cross-industry impact:

Amazon - from books to anything

“The great American Society will sort out the problems of technologically originated unemployment because its has always dealt nicely with a crisis” - Andrew Paul McAfee is co-director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy

I do not believe it. It’s a social problem not a technological one -

see American Health System, insurance, lobbying, voting system, gun law. These are all social problems waiting to be resolved…

Should we be worried?

Work saves a man from three great evils:

As Voltaire once said:

Boredom, Vice and Need

Solutions to minimize the negative impact of AI on the labour market

Cut down working hours Flexible retirement age Job share incl. robots

Introduce UBI early Coaching in ‘life skills’ Personal Life Mentor

The cushioning effect of UBI on AI-caused Technological Unemployment

To have the greatest impact – implement UBI early

Start small – increase the value of UBI fast

BASIC, start at e.g. 30% of the poverty line (about £5,000 p.a.)

UNIVERSAL on an individual basis

UNCONDITIONAL

Paid periodically and not as a lumpsum

Paid in cash not in vouchers

Benefits Personal

Allowance

NI Tax State

Pension

Green Party

proposal

4160 2600 9360 After 2020 Paid by NI

increase

and

additional

tax

Only

exceptional

& housing

0 Lower &

Upper

limits

removed -

more

expensive

Averything

above UBI

taxed

0

Citizens Income

Trust

4160 1040 Pension

plus +

1560

Now 20 Only

exceptional

0 Max 12% Everything

taxed

including

UBI, extra up

to 3% tax for

high earners

Remains

Compass 4160 2600 8060 Now 14 Only

housing

0 NI Everything

taxed

including

UBI

0

Reform Scotland 5200 2600 5200 Now 13 Only

exceptional

0 0 Everything

tax, plus

extra up to

3% tax for

high earners

Remains

Royal Society of

Arts & Comerce

(RSA)

4160 3700 8060 Now 14 Only

exceptional

0 Max 12% Everything

taxed

including

UBI, extra up

to 3% tax for

high earners

0

Net

scheme

cost in £bn

Proposing organisation Cost and Benefits

UBI proposals for the UK

Adult

Annual UBI

pp (£)

Child

Annual UBI

pp (£)

Pensioners

UBI pp (£)

Start date

proposed

The UBI Proposals in the UK in 2016

Conditional UBI

Applied to ALL ADULTS – in the UK using Universal Credit platform

Paid periodically or as a lumpsum e.g. RSA Universal Basic

Opportunity Fund

Paid in cash or vouchers

Conditions:

• Income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) – Universal Credit

• Income-related Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) – Universal Credit

• Further education

• Voluntary work

• National-level sport

How can UBI be paid in the age of AI?

‘Additional’ GDP growth

Demonetization Smart tax on robots

Towards 2030: The roadmap for UBI implementation in AI context

Don’t’ treat UBI as a political problem but rather as an opportunity

‘Quick and dirty’ rather than a perfect solution – improve as you go

Parliament to oversee an independent UBI Policy Unit, like OBR

Ring-fenced budget with automatic progressive increase: 4, 5, 7, 10 %

Simple, tax free – payable to all citizens, including children

Tight control of UBI via Universal Credit

Goal: Unconditional UBI to reach today’s poverty line by 2030

Goal: Unconditional UBI when combined with Conditional UBI should

aim to progressively reach the minimum wage by 2040

Conditional UBI would open to people a path to ‘earned decent living’

rather than poverty line benefits

END www.sustensis.co.uk