impending crisis · 2020. 7. 14. · survey design 65 companies 78% ceos 57% also participated in...

© 2020 Alderman & Company®

Impending Crisis in the Commercial Aviation IndustrySupply Chain

July 14, 2020

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Executive Summary

• Industry has never seen this kind of fall-off in demand • Expectation is 2020 and 2021 will be devastating• Demand will not recover until after 2022• Liquidity is tightening• Outlook is dire• Government support (CARES / PPP) has helped• Continuing government support is needed

2

© 2020 Alderman & Company® 3

Survey Design65 Companies

78% CEOs 57% also participated in our May survey

PopulationSenior executives and owners of privately owned companies in the commercial aviation supply chain

SamplingOur proprietary database,

Data CollectionThird-party survey collection software

Period June 11 – June 23

2


0

20

40

60

80

100

2019 2020

What was your change in Revenue May '19 to May '20 ?

4

Down 35%

Survey Question 1


6 months or more after

vaccine63%

-96%-81%

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

1-MAR 15-MAR 29-MAR 12-APR 26-APR 10-MAY 24-MAY 7-JUN 21-JUN

TSA DataUS Passenger Traffic

2020 Vs. 2019


August5% December

6%

Once vaccine 26%

6-months after vaccine

17%

12-month after vaccine

20%

2-years or more after vaccine

26%

When do you expect traffic to be back to pre-pandemic levels?

6

6 months or more after

vaccine63%

Survey Question 2


Yes 35.4%

Probably 26.2%

Maybe, if recovery is swift 18.5%

Maybe not, if recovery is slow 13.8%

No 6.2%

Do you have sufficient liquidity?

38.5%

7

Survey Question 3


Less concerned now 40%

No change 12%

More concerned now

48%

Are you more concerned than you were 30-days ago?

Survey Question 4


32%

26%

20%

11% 11%

Cutting expenses tomatch decline

Cutting expensesahead of decline

Operating efficiently New businessdevelopment

Investing in growth

What is your current focus?

9

58%

Survey Question 5


Follow-on Webinar Polling Data

• A week after the survey, we invited our guests to a webinar• More than 30 CEOs, CFOs, and major shareholders attended• Active input confirmed survey findings• Select webinar polling data included on next slide

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Key FindingsWebinar Polling

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The pandemic has caused the most significant downturn in the history of commercial aviation and we want to help companies within the supply chain pivot to cope. If you’re a company in the middle market of the commercial aviation supply chain and want to explore exit options, contact us at:[email protected]

Founded in 2001, Alderman & Company® is a specializedinvestment bank exclusively providing sell-side M&A advisoryservices to middle market companies within the global aerospaceand defense industry. Our clients include family-ownedenterprises, microcap public companies, divisions of largecorporations, and portfolio companies of private equity firms.Our services are built on comprehensive industry knowledge andyears of process expertise providing business owners value-maximizing solutions for exiting their businesses.

Alderman & Company®35 Warrington RoundDanbury, Connecticut06810 USAwww.aldermanco.com

http://aldermanco.com

impending crisis · 2020. 7. 14. · survey design 65 companies 78% ceos 57% also participated in...

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