impeachment - certus insights...impeachment has grown slightly. still, support for impeachment...
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IMPEACHMENTStatus of public opinion and news coverage
Special Report: October 29, 2019
Latest Poll Numbers
Should be impeached,
50%
Don't feel that way,
43%
October 17-20, 2019
CNNBased on what you have read or heard, do you believe that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don't you feel that way?
6% | 87% | 50%
Should be impeached,
48%
Don't feel that way,
46%
October 17-21, 2019
QuinnipiacDo you think that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don't you think so?
Should impeach,
47%
Should not impeach,
38%
October 13-15, 2019
Economist/YouGovDo you think the U.S. House of Representatives
should or should not impeach Donald Trump?
Party ID: Should be Impeached
6% | 86% | 49%
Party ID: Should be Impeached
15% | 82% | 36%
Party ID: Should Impeach
Republicans Democrats Independents
The latest public opinion surveys on impeachment from CNN, Quinnipiac, and Economist/YouGov show support for impeachment at or slightly under 50%. The CNN and Quinnipiac show nearly identical partisan attitudes – with support for impeachment among Republicans at 6%, 86-87% among Democrats, and 49-50% among independents. In the Economist/YouGov survey, independents show a high degree of uncertainty: 25% don’t know whether the House should or should not impeach Trump.
Republicans Democrats IndependentsRepublicans Democrats Independents
Attitudes on Impeachment: Trend
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Support for Impeachment, Sep. 24 to Oct. 23
Since the impeachment inquiry announcement in late September, surveys from several pollsters and news organizations have shown that support for impeachment has grown slightly. Still, support for impeachment remains at or just under 50%. Attitudes on the impeachment seem to have solidified quickly, with only small changes in attitudes after the impeachment inquiry. Quinnipiac’s polling shows support increased from 37% just as the impeachment inquiry was announced. Since then, support has stayed between 45% and 48%. The impeachment demonstrates yet again how fast the news cycle moves and how quickly public opinion coalesces.
Democratic Support has Solidified
CNNBased on what you have read or heard, do you believe that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don't you feel that way?
QuinnipiacDo you think that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don't you think so?
73%
87%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
September 29, 2019 October 20, 2019
73%
86%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
September 23, 2019 October 21, 2019
The increase in support for impeachment since the announcement has been largely the result of growing Democratic support. Since September 29th, support for impeachment among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic has increased 14 points in CNN’s trend. In Quinnipiac's trend, support for impeachment among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic has increased 13 points since September 23rd.
Democrats + Democratic LeanersShould be Impeached and Removed from Office
Democrats + Democratic LeanersShould be Impeached and Removed from Office
What’s Impeachable? What’s Not?
Do you think asking a foreign leader for help in defeating an opponent in an upcoming election is or is not a good enough reason to impeach a president and remove them from office? (Quinnipiac, Sep. 27-29)
52% 85% 17%
% Yes, good enough reason to impeach
All Voters Democrats Republicans
Do you think President Trump has done something wrong regarding his interactions with the President of Ukraine, or don't you think so? (Quinnipiac, Sep. 27-29)
50% 86% 9%
% Yes, Trump did something wrong
All Voters Democrats Republicans
Based on what you have read or heard about Donald Trump’s interactions with the President of Ukraine, do you believe that … ? (CNN, Sep. 24-29)
48% 74% 17%
% Trump Improperly used the presidency to gain political advantage against a potential 2020 opponent
All Voters Democrats Republicans
Do you think it was appropriate or inappropriate for Donald Trump to withhold military aid to Ukraine while urging the President of Ukraine to investigate allegations of corruption against the Biden family? (Economist/YouGov, Oct. 6–8)
54% 88% 18%
% Inappropriate to withhold aid
All Voters Democrats Republicans
Which comes closer to your point of view about the allegations against President Trump that he requested a foreign leader open an investigation related to Joe Biden and his son? Are these allegations … ? (NBC/WSJ, Oct 4–6)
47% 84% 20%
% Allegations are serious
All Voters Democrats Republicans
Official notes of a call showed that President Trump asked the President of Ukraine to investigate a potential political opponent, Joe Biden. Do you think …? (NPR/ News Hour/ Marist, Sep. 25)
54% 78% 27%
% Serious matter that requires investigation
All Voters Democrats Republicans
Republicans and Democrats have sharply diverging views on the allegations behind impeachment – Trump’s actions as it relates to Ukraine. Across several questions, it’s clear that Democrats widely believe what the President did was improper and serious. Only a minority of Republicans hold those views.
Trumps Approval Since Impeachment Inquiry Began
The Ukraine incident and the impeachment investigation have had a minor negative effect on the President’s ratings when it comes to foreign policy. Only time will tell if the decline lasts. Considering the constant coverage of the President, his overall job approval rating remains largely unaffected. Within the Lunchtime Politics daily average had Trump’s job approval rating stood at 45% in late August and 42% in late October. By this point, most Americans have made up their mind on the President. The Lunchtime Politics daily average is based on recent nationwide polls.
Trump Approval of Foreign Policy/ Affairs Trump Job Approval
Aug. 2019, 40%
Aug. 2019, 38%
Oct. 2019, 38%
Oct. 2019, 35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
CNN: Approve of Trump’s handling of foreign affairs
Quinnipiac: Approve of Trump’s handling of foreign policy
Aug. 26 2019, 52%
Aug. 26 2019, 45%
Oct. 21 2019, 54%
Oct. 21 2019, 42%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
-3
-2
-3
+2
Lunchtime Politics Approval Average:
Lunchtime Politics DisapprovalAverage:
Mueller Report Publicly Released April 18th, 2019
Volume of news stories discussing the public release of Robert Mueller’s investigative report into internarial interference in the 2016 presidential election from April 15th, 2019 to May 14th, 2019.
Coverage of Impeachment Inquiry
Impeachment Inquiry Announced September 25th, 2019
Volume of news stories discussing Trump and impeachment from September 22nd , 2019 to October 21st, 2019.
Coverage of the impeachment in news media shows widespread interest. The charts below compare the volume of news stories discussing the public release of the Mueller report from earlier this year to the volume of news stories discussing the announcement of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump by the House of Representatives. Each chart begins three-days before each event and spans a month. The Mueller report was released to the public on April 18th, 2019. The total volume of stories discussing the Mueller report and investigation over that period totals 177,649 news stories. Nancy Pelosi announced the impeachment inquiry on September 25th, leading to 308,188 news stories within the month period. While initially having a similar spike in coverage of the announcements, the impeachment inquiry has generated over 130,539 more stories, with more consistent follow-up coverage.
Total Volume of Stories: 308,188 Total Volume of Stories: 177,649
Trump Impeachment Conversation Public Release of Mueller Report
Leading Sources of Impeachment News
0M 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M 13M 14M 15M 16M 17M
Fox News
The Washington
Post
The Hill
NBCNEWS.com
CNN.comInternational
Breitbart
PoliticusUSA.com
Yahoo! News
MSN.com
The Daily Caller
14,852,140
11,858,406
10,145,896
7,794,998
6,062,537
6,022,558
5,530,405
4,907,068
4,065,493
3,828,709
Impeachment Inquiry Announced September 25th, 2019
Volume of news stories discussing Trump and impeachment from September 22nd , 2019 to October 21st, 2019.
Total Volume of Engagements: 170,283,689
Engagement on Trump Impeachment Conversation
With the widespread news coverage of the impeachment, certain news sources have been more successful in generating social media engagement from their coverage – likes, shares, retweets, etc. Fox News and The Washington Post are driving the highest levels of engagement. Other sources generating widespread social media engagement for their coverage include The Hill, NBC News, CNN, Breitbart, PoliticusUSA, Yahoo News, MSN.com, and the Daily Caller.
The most engaging sources include a mix of left, right, and "mainstream" news publications. However, right-leaning publications generate more engagements than the left-leaning ones. Fox News, Breitbart, and Daily Caller have collectively produced 24.7 million social engagements.
The most engaging sources are similar between the public release of the Mueller and the impeachment investigation. However, the impeachment investigation has generated over 100 million additional social engagements than the public release of the Mueller report among all news sources – 170.2 million vs. 77.7 million. The top news sources are having a larger impact on the coverage surrounding the impeachment, generating substantially more engagements than the Mueller Report.
Mueller Report Publicly Released April 18th, 2019
Top sources discussing the public release of the Mueller Report by volume of social media engagements from April 15th, 2019 to May 14th, 2019.
Impeachment Inquiry Top Sources by Engagement
Top sources discussing the impeachment inquiry by volume of social media engagements from September 22nd, 2019 to October 21st, 2019.
Total Volume of Engagements: 170,283,689Total Volume of Engagements: 77,781,579
Engagement on Trump Impeachment Conversation Engagement on Public Release of Mueller Report Conversation
Leading News Sources: Mueller Report vs. Impeachment
Top News Articles by Source Below are three articles that produced high engagement from the news coverage of the impeachment from September 22nd to October 21st. The articles provide a window into what has most resonated with news consumers. The top engaging story by Politicus USA focuses on how House Democrats have enough support to impeach Trump. The second most engaging story focuses on Pelosi's announcement of the impeachment inquiry. Several articles, including this Washington Post article, illustrate the initial spike in interest around the beginning of the impeachment inquiry. Another top engaging article is an obituary of Congressman Elijah Cummings. The impeachment inquiry has permeated all facets of political commentary, pulling even the Congressman's death into the narrative.
House Democrats Now Have Enough Votes to Impeach Donald Trump
From: Politicus USA Total Engagements: 1,783,607
Pelosi Announces Impeachment Inquiry, Says Trump’s Courting of Foreign Political Help is a ‘Betrayal of National Security’
From: The Washington PostTotal Engagements: 1,072,005
Elijah Cummings, A Maryland Democrat and House Oversight
Chairman, Dies at 68From: NBC News Total Engagements: 828,771
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