impact of metop ascat ocean surface winds in the ncep …
TRANSCRIPT
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Impact of METOP ASCAT Ocean Surface Winds in the
NCEP GDAS/GFS and NRL NAVDAS COAMPS@
Li Bi 1,2
James Jung 3,4
Michael Morgan 5
John F. Le Marshall 6
Nancy Baker 2
Dave Santek 3
1University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Visiting Scientist
2Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA
3Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison
4Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, Camp Spring, MD
5Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison
6Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australian
26 February 2010
COAMPS@ and COAMPS-OS@ are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory
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Part I: Assimilating ASCAT surface wind
retrievals in the NCEP GDAS/GFS
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Part I: Outline
• ASCAT experiment design and work plan
• Results from ASCAT analysis
• Results from forecast verification
– Traditional stats diagnosis and anomaly
correlation results
– Geographic anomaly correlation results
– Forecast impact investigations
• Conclusions
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Work Plan
• Worked with the JCSDA (Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation) to evaluate the forecast impact of assimilating ASCAT data in the NCEP GDAS/GFS
• Conducted experiments during two seasons• December 2007 version of GDAS/GFS with
modifications for:
– Thinning routine for winds (Kistler, Su)• Used the low resolution ASCAT data
• Determined quality control procedures• Investigated analysis and forecast impacts of
assimilating ASCAT
– Anomaly Correlations– Geographic Anomaly Correlations results
– Forecast Impact
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ASCAT Assimilation Experimental Design
• Used GDAS/GFS operational resolution of T382L64
• Used July-August 2008 and December 2008 – January 2009 data
• All operational data types were used
• Data used at 6 hour synoptic time with +/- 3 hour window• Thinned instead of superobed ASCAT data
– Thinned to 100 km
• ASCAT quality control:
– Non-ocean observations rejected (GFS land, sea, ice flag)
– Observations that differ by more than 5 m/s from the background are rejected (U, V).
– Sea surface temperature of 273K was used as a criteria to remove sea ice contamination.
– Directional QC, ambiguity removal.
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(a) monthly mean RMS of Aug 2008 from various types of marine observation
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
QuikSCAT WindSat ASCAT Ships Buoys
RM
S d
iffe
ren
ce (m
/s)
RMS mean for O-B
RMS mean for O-A
(b) monthly mean RMS of Jan 2009 from various types of marine observation
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
QuikSCAT WindSat ASCAT Ships Buoys
RM
S d
iffe
ren
ce (
m/s
)
RMS mean for O-B
RMS mean for O-A
Monthly mean RMS for various types of marine observation
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ASCAT, WindSat, QuikSCAT orbit 20081205 00Z
ASCAT WindSat QuikSCAT
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ASCAT speed difference histogram 1 Jan - 31 Jan 2009
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-9.5 -8.5 -7.5 -6.5 -5.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5
ASCAT wind speed difference [m/s]
norm
alized c
ounts
obs-background
obs-analysis
normalized counts by bin for ASCAT 1 Jan - 31 Jan 2009
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ASCAT observed wind speed [m/s]
norm
alized c
ounts # of obs for each loop
bias by bin for ASCAT 1 Jan - 31 Jan 2009
-2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ASCAT observed wind speed [m/s]
bia
s [m
/s]
obs-background
obs-analysis
standard deviation by bin for ASCAT 1 Jan - 31 Jan 2009
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ASCAT observed wind speed [m/s]
sta
ndard
devia
tion [m
/s]
obs-background
obs-analysis
ASCAT speed difference histogram 1 Aug - 31 Aug 2008
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-9.5 -8.5 -7.5 -6.5 -5.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5
ASCAT wind speed difference [m/s]
norm
alized c
ounts
obs-background
obs-analysis
normalized counts by bin for ASCAT 1 Aug - 31 Aug 2008
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ASCAT observed wind speed [m/s]
norm
alized c
ounts # of obs for each loop
bias by bin for ASCAT 1 Aug - 31 Aug 2008
-2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ASCAT observed wind speed [m/s]
bia
s [m
/s]
obs-background
obs-analysis
standard deviation by bin for ASCAT 1 Aug - 31 Aug 2008
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ASCAT observed wind speed [m/s]
sta
ndard
devia
tion [m
/s]
obs-background
obs-analysis
(a)
(b)
(e)
(c)
(d)
(f)
(g)
(h)
ASCAT statistics results of Aug 2008 and Jan 2009 – by observation wind speed bins
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ASCAT wind speed bias O-B [m/s] Aug 08 ASCAT wind speed bias O-A [m/s] Aug 08(a)
(b) (e)
(d)
WindSat wind speed bias O-A [m/s] Aug 08WindSat wind speed bias O-B [m/s] Aug 08
QuikSCAT wind speed bias O-B [m/s] Aug 08(c) QuikSCAT wind speed bias O-A [m/s] Aug 08(f)
Geographic statistics results – by lon/lat bins wind speed bias
O-B O-A
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ASCAT wind speed RMS O-B [m/s] Aug 08 ASCAT wind speed RMS O-A [m/s] Aug 08(a)
(b) (e)
(d)
WindSat wind speed RMS O-A [m/s] Aug 08WindSat wind speed RMS O-B [m/s] Aug 08
QuikSCAT wind speed RMS O-B [m/s] Aug 08(c) QuikSCAT wind speed RMS O-A [m/s] Aug 08(f)
Geographic statistics results – by lon/lat bins wind speed RMS
O-B O-A
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Day 5 Average AC Waves 1 - 20
1 Jan - 31 Jan 2009
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
nh 500 sh 500 nh 1000 sh 1000
Control ASCAT
Day 5 Average AC Waves 1 - 20
1 Aug - 31 Aug 2008
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
nh 500 sh 500 nh 1000 sh 1000
Control ASCAT
(a)
(b)
Anomaly Correlation (AC) results
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500 hPa AC fraction Z SH 5 Day Forecast 7 July - 30 August 2008
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
Day
AC
F
racti
on
Control ASCAT
500 hPa AC fraction Z NH 5 Day Forecast 7 July - 30 August 2008
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
Day
AC
F
racti
on
Control ASCAT
(a)
(b)
Fraction of daily AC time series
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500hPa AC Z day 5 control 1 Aug – 31 Aug 2008
500hPa AC Z day 5 ASCAT experiment 1 Aug – 31 Aug 2008
500hPa AC Z day 5 ASCAT – control 1 Aug – 31 Aug 2008(a)
(d)
(c)
(b)
S. H. 500 hPa AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20
1 Aug - 31 Aug 2008
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Forecast [day]
An
om
aly
Co
rrela
tio
n
Control ASCAT
Geographic AC results for 500hPa geopotential heights
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1000hPa AC Z day 5 control 1 Aug – 31 Aug 2008
1000hPa AC Z day 5 ASCAT experiment 1 Aug – 31 Aug 2008
1000hPa AC Z day 5 ASCAT – control 1 Aug – 31 Aug 2008(a)
(d)
(c)
(b)
S. H. 1000 hPa AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20
1 Aug - 31 Aug 2008
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Forecast [day]
An
om
aly
Co
rrela
tio
n
Control ASCAT
Geographic AC results for 1000hPa geopotential heights
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Conclusions of ASCAT experiment
• Improvements of O-A standard deviations are noted in the ASCAT analysis.
• Anomaly correlations show neutral to modest improvements.
• Improvements are realized as small improvements each day rather than large discrete improvements associated with particular weather events.
• Positive Forecast Impacts occurred for the wind and temperature fields and these impacts decay over time.
• Greatest Forecast Impacts occurred for the wind and temperature fields in the first 6 hour of the forecast.
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Part II: Satellite Surface Wind Assimilations in
the NRL Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS@)
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Motivation
• Evaluate the impact of different horizontal resolutions for different types of satellite surface observations on the NAVDAS/COAMPS@ TC track.
• Determine best horizontal resolutions for satellite surface wind observations assimilation.
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What is new to COAMPS@-Beta?
• Operation – QuikSCAT
• 1.5 degree superob
– SSM/I wind speed• 2.0 degree superob
– Scat winds• 1.5 degree superob
• Operation – QuikSCAT
• 1.5 degree superob
– SSM/I wind speed• 2.0 degree superob
– Scat winds• 1.5 degree superob
• Test – ASCAT
• ? degree superob/thinning
– WindSat• ? degree superob/thinning
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Experiment setup
• Control – Reject QuikSCAT,
WindSat, ASCAT ocean surface winds
– Reject SSM/I wind speed
– Reject Scat winds
• Experiment 3
– Assimilate QuikSCAT, WindSat, ASCAT ocean surface winds, SSM/I wind speed, Scat winds
– 1.0 degree thinning box
• Experiment 2
– Assimilate QuikSCAT, WindSat, ASCAT ocean surface winds, SSM/I wind speed, Scat winds
– 1.0 degree super-ob
• Experiment 1
– Assimilate QuikSCAT, WindSat, ASCAT ocean surface winds, SSM/I wind speed, Scat winds
– 0.5 degree thinning box
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Case study
• 1 August – 30 August, 2009.
• Results from east pacific hurricane Felicia
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Control background inno vector
Exp 2 (1.0 superob) background inno vector Exp 3 (1.0 thinning) background inno vector
Exp 1 (0.5 thinning) background inno vector
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Control analysis inno vector
Exp 2 (1.0 superob) analysis inno vector Exp 3 (1.0 thinning) analysis inno vector
Exp 1 (0.5 thinning) analysis inno vector
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Comparison of intensity track and position track
2009080612 72hr forecast
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Verification again surface observations
2009080612 72hr forecast
10m wind speed RMS 10m wind speed bias
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exp_1.0_superob
O-B bias
O-A RMS
O-B RMS
O-A bias
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exp_1.0_thinning
O-B bias
O-A RMS
O-B RMS
O-A bias
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Summary
• Scatterometer winds on the TC position track were slightly positive through forecast length 72 hr.
• There were no significant improvement/degradations on the TC intensity track.
• Too early to draw conclusion on horizontal resolution.
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Back Up Slides
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ASCAT Overview
• The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) is one of the new-generation European instruments carried on Meteorological Operational Polar Satellite (MetOp)
• Measures ocean surface wind speed and direction
• Launched aboard MetOp in October 2006
ASCAT scanning principle
http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEMBWEG23IE_LPmetop_0.html
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ASCAT Overview
• ASCAT uses radar to measure the electromagnetic backscatter from the wind-roughened ocean surface.
• The ASCAT mission employs two sets of three antennas to make observations in two 550 km wide
swaths
• ASCAT products will provide two swaths of wind
vectors at a resolution of 50 and 25 km.
• Two wind vector solutions instead of four (QuikSCAT and WindSat).
http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEMBWEG23IE_LPmetop_0.html
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Results from forecast verification Cont.
• Geographic forecast impact (FI) investigations
(Bi et al. 2010) for ASCAT retrieval data:
Error in control Error in experiment Error in experiment
}
)(
/]
)()(
{[100),( 1
2
1
2
1
2
N
AE
N
AE
N
AC
yxFI
N
i
ii
N
i
ii
N
i
ii ∑∑∑===
−−
−
−
×=
� A positive FI means the forecast is better with the
data type included than the control
� A useful tool to evaluate short term forecast skill
� Assumption is that analyses with more data are
closer to the truth
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6 hour Forecast Impact on 1000hPa Temperature Aug 2008 12 hour Forecast Impact on 1000hPa Temperature Aug 2008
24 hour Forecast Impact on 1000hPa Temperature Aug 2008 48 hour Forecast Impact on 1000hPa Temperature Aug 2008
(a)
(d)(c)
(b)
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12 hour Forecast Impact on 10 m u component of winds Aug 2008 12 hour Forecast Impact on 10 m v component of winds Aug 2008
24 hour Forecast Impact on 10 m u component of winds Aug 2008 24 hour Forecast Impact on 10 m v component of winds Aug 2008
(a)
(d)
(b)
(c)
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exp_0.5_thin
O-B bias
O-A RMS
O-B RMS
O-A bias
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Work plan
• Test assimilation with NRL’s latest algorithm.
• Continue to work on the ‘optimal’ horizontal
resolution for satellite surface winds assimilation.
• Evaluate impact of different horizontal
resolutions for feature track winds on TC track
forecasts.
• Impact of SSMI TPPW and WindSat TPPW on
TC track forecasts.
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Comparison of intensity track and position track
2009080612 72hr forecast
Initial results on impact of different horizontal resolutions
for feature track winds on TC track forecasts
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Future work
• Continue working on the quality control
procedures:
– Investigate, in greater detail, regions of high
bias and standard deviations for possible
improvements.
• Conduct a series of denial experiment
– Turn off all the other surface wind vectors
(Windsat)