impact of federal regulation on the manufacturing sector september 2013
TRANSCRIPT
Impact of Federal Regulation on the Manufacturing Sector
September 2013
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Cumulative Number of Regulations
U.S. Manufacturing Industrial Production
In
dex
: 19
98=
100
Regulations Grow Faster Than Production in Manufacturing
Cumulative Number of Manufacturing-Related Regulations vs. Manufacturing Physical Production
*Actual data through July, annualized for year 2013 as a wholeSource(s): OIRA and Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics and NERA and MAPI
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Cumulative Number of Regulations Manufacturing Employment
In
dex
: 19
98=
100
Regulatory Growth a Factor in Manufacturing Job Losses
Cumulative Number of Manufacturing-Related Regulations vs. Manufacturing Employment
*Actual data through July, annualized for year 2013 as a wholeSource(s): OIRA and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and MAPI
Major Non-Major Total
(a) (b) (a)+(b)(c)
NAICS Sector 31 59 405 464
NAICS Sector 32 70 799 869
NAICS Sector 33 202 1,474 1,676
Total Unique Regulations 261 2,041 2,302
Major & Non-Major Manufacturing Rules, by NAICS Subsector, January 1981 to July 2013
Feds Have Issued More Than 2,300 Manufacturing Rules
Note: The count of regulations in 2013 is shown only through July 31Source(s): OIRA dataset and NERA analysis
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Major Rules Non-Major Rules
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g R
ule
sTotal Economic Burden Much Greater than Sum of Individual Rules
Cumulative Major & Non-Major Manufacturing Rules by Year, January 1981 to July 2013
Note: President Clinton issued Executive Order 12866 in September 1993, greatly reducing the scope of OIRA regulatory review*The count of regulations in 2013 is shown through July 31Source(s): OIRA dataset, NERA analysis
September 1993:Executive order 12866 issued
Manufacturing
Food
Other Mfg
Chemicals
Cement
Glass
Petroleum
Paper
Plastics
Wood
Aluminum
Electronics
Elec Equip
Metal
Iron/Steel
Machinery
Trans Equip
-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Percent Change in Industrial Output
Regulation Will Reduce Output by Up to 6% Over the Decade
Regulatory Impact on Physical Output by Industry 2012-2021
Source(s): OIRA dataset and NERA analysis
Food
Other Mfg
Chemicals
Cement
Glass
Petroleum
Paper
Plastics
Wood
Aluminum
Electronics
Elec Equip
Metal
Iron/Steel
Machinery
Trans Equip
-$100 -$90 -$80 -$70 -$60 -$50 -$40 -$30 -$20 -$10 $0
Change in Shipment Value (Billions of 2010 $)
Regulation Will Reduce Shipment Value by $500 Billion in 2013
Regulatory Impact on Shipment Value by Industry, 2013
Source(s): OIRA dataset and NERA analysis
Manufacturing
Food
Other Mfg
Chemicals
Cement
Glass
Petroleum
Paper
Plastics
Wood
Aluminum
Electronics
Elec Equip
Metal
Iron/Steel
Machinery
Trans Equip
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Percent Change in Exports
Regulation Will Reduce Exports by Up to 17% in 2013
Regulatory Impact on Exports by Industry, 2013
Source(s): OIRA dataset and NERA analysis
President Years in OfficeTotal Major Regulations
Average Major Regulations Per
Year
Clinton 1993-2000 290 36
Bush 2001-2008 360 45
Obama 2009-2013* 374* 75*
Major Regulations Promulgated by Presidential Administration, All Sectors
* Actual data through July, annualized for year 2013 as a wholeSource(s): NERA analysis
Surge in Regulation Under the Obama Administration
President Years in OfficeTotal Major Regulations
Average Major Regulations Per
Year
Clinton 1993-2000 69 9
Bush 2001-2008 55 7
Obama 2009-2013* 82* 16*
Major Regulations Promulgated by Presidential Administration, Manufacturing
• Actual data through July, annualized for year 2013 as a whole• Source(s): NERA analysis
Surge in Regulation Under the Obama Administration
Major Regulations Promulgated Between May 2012 and July 2013 Adoption of Operating Rules for Electronic Funds Transfer and Remittance AdviceCore principles and other requirements for designated contract marketsEffluent Limitations Guidelines/Standards for Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source CategoryElectronic Funds Transfers (Regulation E)Electronic Stability Control Systems for Heavy VehiclesFeedstock Flexibility ProgramForeign Supplier Verification ProgramIncreased Safety Measures for Oil and Gas Operations on the Outer Continental ShelfMajor Capital Investment ProjectsMandatory Country of Origin Labeling of Perishable Agricultural CommoditiesMigratory Bird Hunting; 2012-2013 Migratory Game Bird Hunting RegulationsMigratory Bird Hunting; 2013-2014 Migratory Game Bird Hunting RegulationsSchool Lunch and School Breakfast Programs: Nutrition Standards For Foods Sold in SchoolPassenger Car and Light Truck Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards MYs 2017 and BeyondPositive Train Control Systems AmendmentsEmission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion EnginesTesting and labeling pertaining to product certificationUnique Device Identification
Food, Beverage, Textile, Apparel
Source(s): NERA analysis
One Year of Major Regulations
Major Regulations Promulgated by Presidential Administration 1993-2013Customer clearing documentation, timing of acceptance, and clearing member risk managementIncreased Safety Measures for Oil and Gas Operations on the Outer Continental ShelfPetroleum Refineries--New Source Performance Standards (NSPS)--Subparts J and JaTesting and labeling pertaining to product certificationWage Methodology for the Temporary Non-agricultural Employment H-2B Program
Wood, Paper, Printing, Petroleum, Chemicals, Plastics, and Mineral Products
Source(s): NERA analysis
One Year of Major Regulations
Major Regulations Promulgated by Presidential Administration 1993-2013Adoption of Operating Rules for Electronic Funds Transfer /Remittance AdviceADA Accessibility Guidelines for Transportation Vehicles: Passenger VesselsControl of Air Pollution From Motor Vehicles: Tier 3 Motor Vehicle Emission and Fuel StandardsEffluent Limitations Guidelines/Standards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point SourceElectronic Funds Transfers (Regulation E)Electronic Stability Control Systems for Heavy VehiclesEnergy Efficiency Standards for Microwave Ovens (Standby and Off Mode)Increased Safety Measures for Oil and Gas Operations on the Outer Continental ShelfEstablish 2017 and Later Model Year Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE StandardsMajor Capital Investment ProjectsMigratory Bird Hunting; 2012-2013 Migratory Game Bird Hunting RegulationsMigratory Bird Hunting; 2013-2014 Migratory Game Bird Hunting RegulationsPassenger Car and Light Truck Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards MYs 2017 and BeyondPositive Train Control Systems AmendmentsPublic Transportation Emergency Relief ProgramEmission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion EnginesUnique Device Identification
Metals; Machinery; Electrical, Electronic, and Transportation Equipment
Source(s): NERA analysis
One Year of Major Regulations