imigração e comércio internacional no contexto da integração
TRANSCRIPT
41
imigração e comércio internacional no contexto
da integração europeia – o caso português
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estudos regionais | nº 24
42
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2. Migração Internacional
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43
imigração e comércio internacional no contexto da integração europeia – o caso português
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estudos regionais | nº 24
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45
imigração e comércio internacional no contexto da integração europeia – o caso português
2.2 Consequências
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4 _&'!p+'B*(!a9QQ8b
estudos regionais | nº 24
46
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47
imigração e comércio internacional no contexto da integração europeia – o caso português
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&!)*!4$C'*EF+!&#-'&!+(!L3M!&!*!"39R!(&C1$1!)&()&!
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)&!A&#(!&!(&'%$E+(!&#-'&!*!"3 9R!&!+(!L3M!<+$!(&#)+!
2$A&'*2$Z*)+! )&()&! +! $#G0$+! )+(! *#+(! Q6H! (&#)+! *(!
&I=+'-*EN&(! =*'*! *!3"!='*-$0*4&#-&! 2$%'&! *#-&(! )*!
*)&(F+! =2&#*! )+(! L3MH! *(! 4&)$)*(! )&! -'*#($EF+!
0+4+! *(! '&(-'$EN&(! -&4=+'S'$*(! *+! 4&'0*)+! )&!
-'*A*2T+! )+(! =*G(&(! )*! 3" 9R! *$#)*! %$C+'*4! =*'*!
*2C1#(!)+(!#+%+(!4&4A'+(H!0+4+!(&!=+)&!%&'$]0*'!
#*!X*A&2*!9>
tabela 1
Restrições ao Mercado de Trabalho para os Cidadãos dos NEM-8 na UE-15
Acesso para os trabalhadores provenientes da Bulgária e Roménia2
Maio 2004 a Abril 2006 Maio 2006 a Abril 2009 2007 e 2008
Alemanha Limitado Limitado Limitado
Áustria Limitado Limitado Limitado
Bélgica Limitado Limitado Limitado
Dinamarca Limitado Limitado Limitado
Espanha Limitado Aberto Limitado
Finlândia Limitado Aberto Aberto
França Limitado Limitado3 Limitado 3
Grécia Limitado Aberto Limitado
Holanda Limitado Aberto4 Limitado
Irlanda Aberto Aberto Limitado
Itália Limitado Aberto5 Limitado 6
Luxemburgo Limitado Limitado Limitado
Portugal Limitado Aberto Limitado
Reino Unido Aberto Aberto Limitado
Suécia Aberto Aberto Aberto
Acesso para os trabalhadores dos NEM-81
Fonte:!?+4$((F+!31'+=&$*!&![[[>31'P0-$%>0+4!a-*A&2*!&I-'*G)*!)&!p'&$-&#<&22#&'!&-!*2>!aJ667bH!==>!96Qb
9!r&=1A2$0*!?T&0*H!3(-U#$*H!q1#C'$*H!d&-U#$*H!d$-1^#$*H!,+2+#$*H!3(2+%SO1$*!&!3(2+%D#$*2!@!*0&((+!)+(!-'*A*2T*)+'&(!)&(-&(!=*G(&(!D!-*4AD4!2$4$-*)+!#+(!4&'0*)+(!)&!-'*A*2T+!)&!M*2-*!&!q1#C'$*V!3I021$#)+!01$)*)+(!)&!(*k)&H!-'*#(=+'-&(H!0+#(-'1EF+!&!T+-&2*'$*4 P0&((+!$2$4$-*)+!#*!4*$+'$*!)*(!$#)1(-'$*(!*!=*'-$'!)&!PA'$2!)&!J66nW!P0&((+!$2$4$-*)+!&4!C&'*2!)&()&!M*$+!)&!J66:R!m&()&!{12T+!)&!J66nn!,'+0&((+!)&!*0&((+!($4=2$]0*)+!#*2C14*(!$#)1(-'$*(
estudos regionais | nº 24
48
3I$(-&4! )$%&'(+(! &(-1)+(! O1&! *#*2$(*4! +!
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)$%&'(*(! %*'$S%&$(H! =+'! &I&4=2+5! ,*=*Z+C2+1! et al.
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)+(!&<&$-+(!)*!$#-&C'*EF+!#*(!-&+'$*(!#&+02S(($0*!&!)*!
#+%*!&0+#+4$*!C&+C'S]0*!D!<&$-+!=+'!M*'O1&(!aJ667b>!
L+! -'*A*2T+! )&! M*'O1&(! aJ667bH! (F+! ($#-&-$Z*)+(!
%S'$+(! &(-1)+(! (+A'&! -D0#$0*(! )&! 4+)&2*EF+! =*'*!
4&)$'!+!$4=*0-+!)+(!&<&$-+(!)+!0+4D'0$+!#*!"3>
L+! &#-*#-+H! =+10*! &%$)e#0$*! &I$(-&! (+A'&! *!
'&2*EF+! &#-'&! 4$C'*EF+! &! 0+4D'0$+! O1&! *)%e4! )+!
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14!0+#-'$A1-+!&!*#*2$(*!*!'&2*EF+!&#-'&! $4$C'*EF+!&!
0+4D'0$+!L+!0+#-&I-+!)*!$#-&C'*EF+!&0+#U4$0*!)+(!
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4&)$)*H! #+! 0+#-&I-+! )+! *2*'C*4&#-+! )*(! <'+#-&$'*(!
)*!"3!&4!J668H!*!*01412*EF+!)+!(-+0K!)&!$4$C'*#-&(!
+'$1#)+(!)+(!L+%+(!3(-*)+(!M&4A'+(!-&4!$4=*0-+H!
+1! #F+H! (+A'&! *(! &I=+'-*EN&(! ,+'-1C1&(*(! =*'*!
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L14*!='$4&$'*!*#S2$(&!f! -*I*!)&!0'&(0$4&#-+!)+!
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)*! "3 JR! &#-'&! J668! &! J66:H! =+)&4+(! +A(&'%*'!
=&2*! X*A&2*! JH! O1&! C&#&'$0*4&#-&! &4! ,+'-1C*2! +!
(-+0K! )&! $4$C'*#-&(! +'$1#)+(! )+(! L3M! 0'&(0&1!
(1A(-*#0$*24&#-&! *0$4*! )*!4D)$*! '&C$(-*)*! =*'*! *!
"3 JR>
tabela 2
Crescimento do stock de imigrantes oriundos da UE-25 em Portugal, 2004-2007
Origem Taxa de Crescimento do Stock de Imigrantes
Alemanha 4.21%
Áustria 3.71%
Belux 3.93%
Chipre 0.00%
Dinamarca 2.48%
Eslováquia 44.00%
Eslovénia 21.34%
Espanha 3.18%
Estónia 28.96%
Finlândia 3.16%
França 3.31%
Grécia 5.40%
Holanda 5.22%
Hungria 15.97%
Irlanda 7.81%
Itália 6.75%
Letónia 39.59%
Lituânia 50.90%
Malta 13.99%
Polónia 21.47%
Reino Unido 6.81%
Republica Checa 27.88%
Suécia 3.11%
UE-25 5.16%
Fonte:!gL3!&!0S2012+(!)+(!*1-+'&(
49
imigração e comércio internacional no contexto da integração europeia – o caso português
4. Modelização do Problema
4.1 O modelo gravitacional
m&()&! *! (1*! ='$4&$'*! 1-$2$Z*EF+! =+'! X$#A&'C&#!
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estudos regionais | nº 24
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4.2 Aplicação empírica
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51
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tabela 3
Resultados da estimação do impacto do stock de imigrantes nas exportações Portuguesas para a UE-25
Variável Exportações Portuguesas para a UE-25 Sinal Esperado
-7.53***
(-2.68)
0.43***
(9.14)
0.41***
(7.69)
0.48***
(8.15)
1.32***
(7.71)
-0.27***
(-2.65)
0.01
(0.11)
0.49***
(2.69)
R2 ajustado 0.95
Distância -
Moeda única +
Novo Estado Membro +
Stock de Imigrantes . NEM +
PIB +
PIB per capita +
Constante
Stock de Imigrantes . EU15 +
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#%)&" &" +!7+!""P!":
estudos regionais | nº 24
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anexo a
dados
Variável Origem dos Dados
Tijt – exportações f.o.b. (em dólares) IMF – Direction of Trade Statistics
Mijt – stock de imigrantes (em pessoas) Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE)
PIBjt – PIB (PPP, em dólares de 2005)
PIBPCjt – PIB per capita (PPP, em dólares de 2005)
Distij – distância entre capitais (em quilómetros) www.indo.com/distance
Curr ij – moeda oficial CIA World Factbook 2008
Base de Dados Chelem INT