i'm an expert. don't trust me
TRANSCRIPT
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I’M EXPERT.DON’T TRUST ME.
Phil SimonV2V
July 15, 2014
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Hi. I’m Phil.
@philsimon 2
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WHO AM I?
• Award-winning author of six books that don’t suck, most recently The Visual Organization
• Huge Breaking Bad fan (more on that later)
• Often called an expert of some kind @philsimon # 3
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ˈekˌspərtNounA person who is very knowledgeable about or skillful in a particular area.
@philsimon # 4
EXPERT
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You’d think that experts would be pretty good at predicting the future.
And you’d be spectacularly wrong.
@philsimon # 5
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@philsimon # 6
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”–Yogi Berra
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• 284 experts • 28,000 predictions about the
future over the course of 20 years
• Expert predictions were wrong nearly 50 percent of the time
@philsimon # 7
LET’S ASK PHILIP TETLOCK
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@philsimon # 8
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@philsimon # 9
“We don’t like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out.”—Decca Recording Company executive, 1962
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@philsimon # 10
“We are not interested in science fiction which deals with negative utopias. They do not sell.” –Anonymous publisher
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@philsimon # 11
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@philsimon # 12
“An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing.”―Nicholas Murray Butler
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@philsimon # 13
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@philsimon # 14
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@philsimon # 15
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@philsimon # 16
“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
–Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995
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@philsimon # 17
“An expert is a man who has stopped thinking–he knows!”–Frank Lloyd Wright
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• Experts are terrible at predicting the future.
• Keep that in mind when one tells you that your idea/book/movie/startup will fail.
@philsimon # 18
SO WHAT?
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ABOUT ME
www.philsimon.com
@philsimon
@philsimon # 19