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Event-Driven Time-Series Based Event-Driven Time-Series Based Dynamic Model of Decision Making Dynamic Model of Decision Making

ProcessesProcesses

Conceptual FrameworkConceptual FrameworkAgenda FormationAgenda FormationM. Litwin and E. MillerM. Litwin and E. Miller

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Presentation outline Deficiencies of existing modeling frameworks Conceptual framework Agenda Formation Research direction

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Typical approach

WORK SHOPPING NIGHT SLEEPHH DUTIES

WORK SHOPPING NIGHT SLEEPJOINT

SOCIAL EVENT

WORK SHOPPING NIGHT SLEEP

JOINT SOCIAL EVENT

HH DUTIES

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Deficiencies of existing frameworks Lack of coherent theoretical foundation Crude conceptualization of time Insufficient representation of dynamics Lack of dynamic interface with network performance

models Limited communication with other model components Lack of explicit agenda formation Sequential activity and destination / mode choice

processes Crude representation of joint activities at the household

level and lack of provisions for interactions between households

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John McTaggart, 1866-1925 A series – series of positions

from past to present to future B series – series of positions

from earlier to later C series – series of events

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Sir James Jeans, 1877-1946 Conceptual time – exists only

in the mind of an individual, multidimensional

Perceptual time – acts of perception come one after another, one-dimensional

Physical time – time of physics and astronomy

Absolute time – counterpart of Newton’s absolute space

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A-SPACE

Buy a carAt home

Time Horizon

Framework

Work

C-SPACE of EVENTS

Got a job

Left home

Called spouse

Pick-up child

Shopping

Dentist

OBSERVED SCHEDULE PROVISIONAL SCHEDULE

WORK GROCERY

PICK-UP

AT HOME

Physical Time

Traffic Jam

Left work

B-SPACE

MENTAL

SIMULATION

NOW

ILUTEModify A-Space

Link NOW with Time Horizon and project activities / projects from

A-Space into B-Space

Modify provisional schedule (activity and travel characteristics)

Generate EVENTS in C-Space

Move NOW to the next Event

Build observed schedule

End of modeled interval reached?NO

STOP

YES

Location Choice

Auto Ownership

Dynamic Traffic Assignment

Regional Economics

Flows & TT’s

Land Use

Government Policies

Transportation System

Demographics

External Impacts

Figure ONE

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Where to go from there? Need to change conceptual approach

Intervals in physical time scale vs. events, time series and relations

Need to look at social sciences and psychology Social context of decision making Social networks Functions of activities The role of the actor and its orientation

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Talcott Parsons, 1902-1979Crucial feature of societies, as of biological organisms, is homeostasis (maintaining a stable state), and that their parts can be understood only in terms of the whole.Ref. "The Social System" 1951

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Functionalism in sociologyPERSON

ACTOR (role)

Socialization

Orientation

Rat

iona

l

Afe

ctiv

e

Cat

etic

ACTIVITY

SYSTEM

PATTERNS

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Weekly household activity scheduling process model

Doherty, S. T. and Axhausen, K. W. 1999. The development of a unified modelling framework for the household activity-travel scheduling process. In W. Brilon, F. Huber, M. Schreckengerg, and H. Wallentowitz (eds.) Traffic and Mobility: Simulation-Economics-Environment, pp. 35-56. Berlin: Springer.

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Functionalism and ILUTEPERSON

ACTOR (role)

Socialization

Orientation

Rat

iona

l

Afe

ctiv

e

Cat

etic

ACTIVITY

SYSTEM

PATTERNS

HH Member

Discriminant functionPl

anne

d

Pre-

plan

ned

Impu

lsiv

e

Statistics, Econometrics,

Maslow, Hägerstrand,

Cognitive processes

PATTERNS

Socio-demographic

characteristics

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The Box

Doherty, S. T. et al. (2000) A conceptual model of the weekly household activity-travel scheduling process

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Action systemthe Four-Function Paradigm

ADAPTATION

(ECONOMY)

GOAL ATTAINMENT

(POLITY)

LATENCY

(CULTURE)

INTEGRATION

(SOCIETY)

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Action systemthe Four-Function Paradigm

AT HOME

WORK

PERSONAL BUSINESS

SPORT

SCHOOL

SOCIAL & RELIGIOUS

SOCIAL & RELIGIOUS

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Research directions Implementation of the framework Agenda formation with provisional sequence Development of the B-space using CHASE Replacing activity classification approach with functional

approach

ILUTE

Event-Driven Time-Series Based Event-Driven Time-Series Based Dynamic Model of Decision Making Dynamic Model of Decision Making

ProcessesProcesses

Conceptual FrameworkConceptual FrameworkAgenda FormationAgenda FormationM. Litwin and E. MillerM. Litwin and E. Miller

Thank youThank you