illinois governor rod r. blagojevich climate change advisory group (iccag) energy 2020 reference...

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Illinois Governor Rod R. Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Climate Change Advisory Group Group (ICCAG) (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision revision

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Page 1: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

Illinois Governor Rod R. BlagojevichIllinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich

Climate Change Advisory GroupClimate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG)(ICCAG)

ENERGY 2020 Reference Case ENERGY 2020 Reference Case

July 10, 2007July 10, 2007DRAFT – Numbers subject to DRAFT – Numbers subject to

revisionrevision

Page 2: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Data Sources - EconomicData Sources - Economic

Economic output and employment forecast Economic output and employment forecast from REMI model from REMI model (Provided by IDECO)(Provided by IDECO)

Energy prices from U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Energy prices from U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2007 to 2030 Outlook (AEO) for 2007 to 2030

Moderate population growth (<1% annually) Moderate population growth (<1% annually) Real personal income expected to grow more Real personal income expected to grow more

rapidly - raising income/capitarapidly - raising income/capita

Page 3: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Data Sources - EconomicData Sources - Economic

Population and Income: 1990 2005 2020 2035

AverageAnnual Growth

1990-2005 2005-2025

Population (Thousands) 10,825 12,770 13,816 15,356 1.1% 0.6%

Personal Income (Billions 2000$) 352 467 908 1,636 1.8% 4.1%

Income per Capita ($/Capita) 32,515 36,604 65,713 106,532 0.8% 3.5%

Page 4: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Data Sources - EconomicData Sources - Economic

Employment patterns have shifted over Employment patterns have shifted over the past 15 yearsthe past 15 years

Service economy growth has offset Service economy growth has offset decreased industrial/agricultural decreased industrial/agricultural employment.employment.

Pattern is expected to continue over the Pattern is expected to continue over the forecast period.forecast period.

Page 5: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Data Sources - EconomicData Sources - Economic

Employment 1990 2005 2020 2035

AverageAnnual Growth

Industrial 1,335 1,169 1,130 1,158 -0.3%

Commercial 4,824 5,173 5,893 6,308 0.6%

Government 670 735 776 823 0.5%

Agriculture & Forestry 123 103 93 81 -0.9%

Total - 6,951 7,181 7,892 8,371 0.4%

Page 6: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Historic Energy Use DataHistoric Energy Use DataDescription of Data Sources Household Data - including number of housing units by structure type.

US Census Bureau

Residential Data - Household income by housing type - No. of people per household - End use data including primary fuel type for space and water heating, air conditioning saturations, etc..

EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey - by Census Region and Division http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/contents.html

Commercial Data - Floor area by sub-sector - End use data including primary fuel for space and water heating, and energy intensities.

EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) - by Census Region and Division http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/contents.html

Page 7: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Historic Energy Use DataHistoric Energy Use DataDescription of Data Sources Commercial Data - Floor area by sub-sector - End use data including primary fuel for space and water heating, and energy intensities.

EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) - by Census Region and Division http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/contents.html

Industrial/Manufacturing Data - Energy use by sub-sector and end use

EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey - by Census Region http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/contents.html

State Energy Data: - Overall energy consumption and expenditures by sector and energy source.

EIA State Energy Data System (SEDS) http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html Illinois Commerce Commission Annual Comparison of Sales Statistics for Electricity and Natural Gas http://www.icc.illinois.gov/industry/publicutility/energy/salesstatistics.aspx

Page 8: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Data Sources - PricesData Sources - Prices

Oil prices from AEO (figure follows) Oil prices from AEO (figure follows) Wellhead price of natural gas based on AEOWellhead price of natural gas based on AEO Coal price based on the AEO (both mine mouth Coal price based on the AEO (both mine mouth

and delivered prices for electric power plant)and delivered prices for electric power plant) Historic electricity prices from Energy Historic electricity prices from Energy

Information Administration (EIA) (Information Administration (EIA) (Federal Electricity Federal Electricity Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 1). Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 1).

Model calculates power prices based on Model calculates power prices based on generation costs. generation costs. (Actual prices may differ as a result (Actual prices may differ as a result

of political, regulatory or market influences).of political, regulatory or market influences).

Page 9: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Data Sources - PricesData Sources - Prices

Page 10: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Data Sources - PricesData Sources - Prices

Page 11: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Data Sources – Power SectorData Sources – Power Sector Generation from EPA’s National Electric Energy Generation from EPA’s National Electric Energy

Data System (NEEDS) 2006 databaseData System (NEEDS) 2006 database Reviewed additional sources regarding planned Reviewed additional sources regarding planned

generation and for calibration:generation and for calibration:

Implementation of EGU1 and EGU2 Policies Using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) in the Midwest RPO Region Prepared for Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO)

Study of Emissions Impact by the Illinois Sustainable Energy Plan Based on Optimal Power Flow Modeling, PowerWorld

Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Coal’s Resurgence in Electric Power Generation, DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory.

Page 12: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Points of ComparisonPoints of Comparison

Power SectorPower Sector LADCO and PowerWorld reportsLADCO and PowerWorld reports NETL re planned generationNETL re planned generation September 2006 Illinois Auction Post-Auction

Public Report of the Staff, Illinois Commerce Commission re prices

GHG Emissions – US EPA Inventory and WRI GHG Emissions – US EPA Inventory and WRI report for Illinois.report for Illinois.

Transportation - Illinois EPA and DOTTransportation - Illinois EPA and DOT

Page 13: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Built EnvironmentBuilt Environment

Housing Splits by Type

2005 2015 2025

Single Family 65% 65% 66%

Multi Family 33% 33% 32%

Other Residential 2% 2% 2%

The Reference Case assumes no significant change in the mix of the housing stock over the forecast period.

Page 14: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Reference Case - Power SectorReference Case - Power Sector

Assumed 2,400 MW of coal capacity now in Assumed 2,400 MW of coal capacity now in planning stage will come oplanning stage will come on-line in 2009 – 2011 n-line in 2009 – 2011 (reflects additions already in play). (reflects additions already in play).

1,460 MW of Coal capacity assumed to be 1,460 MW of Coal capacity assumed to be retired prior to 2009 when mercury emissions retired prior to 2009 when mercury emissions requirements come into effect.requirements come into effect.

For modeling purposes only – no assumptions re For modeling purposes only – no assumptions re specific plants.specific plants.

Transmission interconnections modeled based Transmission interconnections modeled based on existing capacities as obtained from NERC.on existing capacities as obtained from NERC.

Page 15: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Reference Case - Power SectorReference Case - Power Sector

Illinois Electricity Sales

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sa

les

(G

Wh

/ye

ar)

Street/Misc

Transportation

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Page 16: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Illinois Power GenerationIllinois Power Generation

Power Generation by Source

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ge

ner

ati

on

(G

Wh

) Other

Wind

LandfillGas/EFWHydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas/Oil

Page 17: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Power Sector – Generation by SourcePower Sector – Generation by SourceGeneration Summary (GWh/year) 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020

Gas/Oil 2,720 11,178 22,087 32,352 36,068

Coal 79,936 83,023 88,479 99,674 99,674

Nuclear 89,186 91,844 92,264 92,264 92,264

Hydro 522 522 338 338 338

Landfill Gas/EFW 3 3 941 1,308 1,664

Wind - - 311 1,626 2,779

Other (0) (0) 277 277 693

Total 172,367 186,570 204,698 227,840 233,479

Illinois Generation by Type - 2020Share of Generation (GWh) Output

Gas/Oil15.4%

Coal42.7%

Nuclear39.5%

Hydro0.1%

Wind1.2%

Other0.3%

Landfill Gas/EFW0.7%

Illinois Generation by Type - 2004Share of Generation (GWh) Output

Gas/Oil6.0%

Coal44.5%

Nuclear49.2%

Hydro0.3%

Page 18: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Power SectorPower Sector

Nuclear and coal contribution declines 2005-Nuclear and coal contribution declines 2005-2020 (as share of total) as alternative sources 2020 (as share of total) as alternative sources increase. Oil/Gas share more than doubles.increase. Oil/Gas share more than doubles.

Wind, LFG and EFW reach almost 2% of supply Wind, LFG and EFW reach almost 2% of supply Growth in Illinois demand approximately 1.3% Growth in Illinois demand approximately 1.3%

per year. per year. Growth in line with previous forecasts (LADCO & Growth in line with previous forecasts (LADCO &

Shaw reports).Shaw reports).

Page 19: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Transportation Sector - DemandTransportation Sector - DemandAverage Annual Growth

1990to 2004

2005to 2030

Passenger 1.7% 1.9%

Freight 0.7% 0.9%

Growth in passenger energy use continues to exceed rate of growth in population. Freight energy use grows at a more moderate rate.

Bulk of passenger energy use for personal vehicles.

Passenger Transportation Energy Use

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 2005 2020

En

erg

y U

se

(TB

tu/y

ear

) Marine

Plane

Train

Bus

Motorcycle

Passengervehicle

Page 20: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

2020

Transportation SectorTransportation Sector

No major increase in vehicle efficiencies assumed in Reference Case.

Passenger Vehicle Efficiency (Average fleet efficiency by vehicle weight class)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0E

ffic

ien

cy (

mil

es/g

allo

n) Light Gasoline

Light Diesel

MediumGasoline

MediumDiesel

HeavyGasoline

Heavy Diesel

Page 21: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Industry SectorIndustry SectorGross Output by Sector

2005

Food & Tobacco15%

Fabricated Metals10%

Machines11%

Chemicals13%

Electric Equipment4%

Computers8%

Other Manufacturing17%

Petroleum Products5%

Non-ferrous/Smelting & Refining

4%

Mining1%

Paper4%

Transport Equipment8%

Energy Intensive Industries represent 27% of GO in 2005. Energy use per dollar output in these industries is typically an order of magnitude higher than in other/general manufacturing.

Page 22: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Industry SectorIndustry SectorGross Output by Sector - 2020

Food & Tobacco12%

Fabricated Metals8%

Machines9%

Chemicals11%

Electric Equipment3%

Computers21%

Other Manufacturing18%

Petroleum Products4%

Non-ferrous/Smelting & Refining

3%

Mining1%

Paper3%

Transport Equipment7%

Energy Intensive industries projected to fall from 27% of industrial gross output in 2005 to 22% by 2030.

Page 23: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Illinois GHG Emissions – Base CaseIllinois GHG Emissions – Base Case

Illinois GHG Emissions - Reference Case

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mt

CO

2e

Agriculture & Forestry

Sequestering

Waste & Wastewater

Power Sector

Freight Transport

Passenger Transport

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Page 24: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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GHG Emissions by SectorGHG Emissions by Sector

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2004 2020

Waste & Wastewater

Power Sector

Freight Transport

Passenger Transport

Residential

Industrial

Commercial

Agriculture/ Forestry

Page 25: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Illinois GHG Emissions – Base CaseIllinois GHG Emissions – Base CaseIllinois GHG Emissions in 2020

Base Case

Commercial 4%

Industrial14%

Power Sector38%

Freight Transport3%

Passenger Transport26%

Residential 7%

Agriculture/Forestry8%

Page 26: Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) ENERGY 2020 Reference Case July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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Questions?Questions?