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Janusz Cofala, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Emission Projections for 2020

Results from a study for the European Environment Agency

(Air Pollution Outlooks and Evaluation: Integrated Assessment Methodologies

and Tools Applied to Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases.

Report for the European Environment Agency, December 2000)

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Assumptions for 2010 and 2020

Activity levels:• “Shared Analysis” energy scenario of DG Energy

for EU-15 and accession countries for 2010 and 2020

Emission controls:• For 2010: Gothenburg Protocol• For 2020: Measures implied by the emission ceilings of the

Gothenburg Protocol applied to all new capital stock

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SO2 Emissions in Europe

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe

Mill

ion

to

ns

1990 2010 2020

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NOx Emissions in Europe

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe

Mill

ion

to

ns

1990 2010 2020

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VOC Emissions in Europe

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe

Mill

ion

to

ns

1990 2010 2020

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NH3 Emissions in Europe

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe

Mill

ion

to

ns

1990 2010 2020

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AcidificationArea of Unprotected Ecosystems

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe

Mill

ion

he

cta

res

1990 2010 2020

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EutrophicationArea of Unprotected Ecosystems

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe

Mill

ion

he

cta

res

1990 2010 2020

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Unprotected Ecosystems 2020 % of ecosystems area

Acidification Eutrophication

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Excess Ozone Exposure (Health)above WHO Guidelines

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe

Mill

ion

pe

rso

n p

pm

.ho

urs

1990 2010 2020

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Excess Ozone Exposure (Vegetation)above Critical Levels

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe

Mill

ion

km

2 exc

ess

pp

m.h

ou

rs

1990 2010 2020

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Ozone Exposure in 2020ppm.hours

AOT60 Excess AOT40

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Conclusions

• Emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol in 2010 imply certain emission control measures/legislation

• The same measures/legislation, if applied to the capital stock renewed after 2010, will lead in many cases to even lower national emissions in 2020

• These ‘autonomous’ improvements will not be sufficient to reach the environmental long-term targets by 2020

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Slides of this presentation

in Powerpoint format

are available at

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains

On the Internet