Charles, C.N., Kishore, M.S., B.K. Naik

UAS- Dharwad

Can India sustain its pulses growth trajectory?

Harnessing successes and reshaping the future

1

Presentation at the IFPRI conference on ‘Pulses for sustainable agriculture and human health’, May 31-June 1, 2016

Layout of presentation

Introduction

Data and analytical approaches

Findings

Conclusion and implications

2

Introduction and motivation

India is largest producer (18.2mn tons) and consumer

(>22mn tons)

Target production of 23.4mn tons by 2020 to 27.5 mn

tons by 2025

Target yield of 900kg/ha by 2020 to 1000kg/ha by

2025

Target area of 26mn ha by 2020 to 27.5 mn ha by

2025

Examined the dynamics in supply, demand, area,

production & yield at national level

3

Data and analytical approaches

Secondary data, 1949-50 to 2014-15

Area, production, productivity, yield, availability, imports etc

Indian agricultural statistics, Directorate of Economics and

Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation and

published research papers.

National level analysis

Growth rate analysis

Descriptive statistics

Modified agricultural supply response function

4

Findings

5

Production (supply) and imports of all pulses by India

6

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2014-15

Total

Production

(mn ton) 10.63 14.26 11.08 18.24 17.38

Imports

(mn ton) 0.17 1.27 0.35 2.70 4.55

Imports as

% of

Production 1.63 8.93 3.16 14.80 26.17

Projected gap between domestic demand and supply of

pulses in India

7

Net per capita availability of pulses in India

8

Dynamic growth in area, production and yield of all pulses in

India

1980-2015 1980-90 1990-00 2000-15

Growth in

area (CAGR,

%)

-0.10 -0.60 1.31 0.12*

Growth in

yield

(CAGR, %)

1.59* 1.27* 2.43* 1.04*

Growth in

production

(CAGR, %)

1.49* 0.66 3.48 1.10*

9

Trend in pulses production and area under irrigation in India

10

Trends in production of major pulses in India

11

Growth in area, yield and production of gram in India

1980-2013 1980-90 1990-00 2000-13

Growth in

area (%) 0.55* -1.42 1.32 4.08*

Growth in

yield (%) 1.15* 0.64 1.69* 2.07*

Growth in

production

(%)a

1.71* -0.84 2.92 5.30*

12

Estimates of pulses acreage response

13

Estimates of gram production response

14

CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION

Can India sustain its pulses growth trajectory?

Area, yield and coverage (%) under irrigation significant drivers

Area has contributed more than yield

In recent years, irrigation seem to be another key factor (Rabi),

Probably due to climatic changes

Policy to strengthen technology generation and dissemination,

irrigation system, price incentives and market access

If farmers cannot sell what they produce, they may not continue to

produce it

15

Thank you!!!!!!!!

16