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China RisingChina Rising

A Personal PerspectiveA Personal Perspective

FromFrom

Frank O’HaraFrank O’Hara

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Where I volunteeredWhere I volunteeredClick to continue

5000 km wide

Comparison:Halifax to Vancouver6119 km

Volunteered in Xi’an 1999, 2001, 2003

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DynastiesDynastiesANCIENTANCIENT• Earliest Earliest c 2652-2000 BCc 2652-2000 BC• Xia KingdomXia Kingdom 2000-1520 BC 2000-1520 BC• Shang KingdomShang Kingdom 1520-1027 BC 1520-1027 BC• Western ZhouWestern Zhou 1027-771 BC 1027-771 BC• Eastern ZhouEastern Zhou 771-221 BC 771-221 BC

IMPERIALIMPERIAL• Qin DynastyQin Dynasty 221–206 BC 221–206 BC• Han DynastyHan Dynasty 206 BC–220 AD  206 BC–220 AD  • Western HanWestern Han    XinXin Dynasty Dynasty    Eastern HanEastern Han Three KingdomsThree Kingdoms 220–280  220–280  • WeiWei, , ShuShu & & WuWuJinJin Dynasty Dynasty 265–420  265–420  • Western JinWestern Jin    Eastern JinEastern Jin16 Kingdoms16 Kingdoms 304–439304–439 • Southern & Northern DynastiesSouthern & Northern Dynasties 420–589 420–589• Sui DynastySui Dynasty 581–619 581–619• Tang DynastyTang Dynasty 618–690 618–690• Second ZhouSecond Zhou 690–705 690–705• Tang DynastyTang Dynasty 705–907 (resumed) 705–907 (resumed)• 5 Dynasties & 10 Kingdoms 5 Dynasties & 10 Kingdoms 907–960907–960 • Liao DynastyLiao Dynasty 907–1125907–1125 • Song DynastySong Dynasty 960–1279960–1279 • Northern SongNorthern Song W. Xia W. Xia DynDyn..    Southern Song Jin Dyn.Yuan DynastySouthern Song Jin Dyn.Yuan Dynasty 1271–1368 1271–1368• Ming DynastyMing Dynasty 1368–1644 1368–1644• Qing DynastyQing Dynasty 1644–1911 1644–1911

MODERNMODERN• Republic of ChinaRepublic of China 1912–1949 1912–1949• People's Republic of ChinaPeople's Republic of China 1949–present 1949–present

      

Early inventionsEarly inventions

• Silk spinning - 2850Silk spinning - 2850• High temperature clay firing - 2High temperature clay firing - 2ndnd millennium millennium• Decimal place value - 13Decimal place value - 13thth century century• Embroidery – 10Embroidery – 10thth century century• Mouth organ - 9Mouth organ - 9thth century century• Fumigation - 7Fumigation - 7thth century century• Cast iron - 5Cast iron - 5thth century century• Cross bow - 5Cross bow - 5thth century century• Metal plough – 5Metal plough – 5thth century century• Acupuncture - 580Acupuncture - 580• Kites - 4Kites - 4thth century century• Blast furnace - 3Blast furnace - 3rdrd century century• Maps, topographical - 3Maps, topographical - 3rdrd century century• Anti-malarial drugs - 3Anti-malarial drugs - 3rdrd century century• Harness, horse breast - 250 Harness, horse breast - 250 • Tea as a drink - 2Tea as a drink - 2ndnd century century• Steel - 2Steel - 2ndnd century century• Ball bearings - 2Ball bearings - 2ndnd century century• Wheel barrow - 30Wheel barrow - 30

• Seawalls - 80Seawalls - 80• Axial rudder - 1Axial rudder - 1stst century century• Paper - 105Paper - 105• Noodles - 100Noodles - 100• Coal as fuel - 1Coal as fuel - 1stst century century• Abacus - 190Abacus - 190• Stirrup - 300Stirrup - 300• Wheel barrow - 200Wheel barrow - 200• Fishing reel - 3Fishing reel - 3rdrd century century• Porcelain - 550Porcelain - 550• Suspension bridge - 6Suspension bridge - 6thth century century• Printing, wood blocks - 7Printing, wood blocks - 7thth century century• Stars, proper motion of - 725Stars, proper motion of - 725• Leeboards & Centreboards - 751Leeboards & Centreboards - 751• Grafting - 806Grafting - 806• Printed book - 868Printed book - 868• Chinese chess - 900Chinese chess - 900• Coinage 9Coinage 9thth century century• Gunpowder – 9Gunpowder – 9thth century century• Playing cards – 1000Playing cards – 1000• Magnetic compass (navigation) - 1111Magnetic compass (navigation) - 1111• Small pox inoculation – 10th centurySmall pox inoculation – 10th century• Paper money - 9Paper money - 9thth century century• Pearls, artificial induction - 1086Pearls, artificial induction - 1086• Pasteurized wine - 1117Pasteurized wine - 1117• Printing, bronze type - 1403Printing, bronze type - 1403

Before Common Era Common Era

Why did it stop at 1500?

Chinese explorations Chinese explorations …(please …(please click)click)

• The Yuan dynasty, 1271-1368, commissioned The Yuan dynasty, 1271-1368, commissioned a navy and founded trading posts in Sumatra, a navy and founded trading posts in Sumatra, Ceylon, India, and later in Arabia and AfricaCeylon, India, and later in Arabia and Africa

• In 1525 the emperor ordered the destruction In 1525 the emperor ordered the destruction of the navy, on the basis that the Middle of the navy, on the basis that the Middle Kingdom had everything it needed. Kingdom had everything it needed.

• http://http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sultan/explorers.htmlwww.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sultan/explorers.html

10% annual GDP growth 10% annual GDP growth How do they do it? How do they do it? …(please …(please click)click)

• Combination of autocracy & free enterpriseCombination of autocracy & free enterprise

• Planning, not laissez-faire (pre-build infrastructure)Planning, not laissez-faire (pre-build infrastructure)

• Industrious, business-like (punctual) peopleIndustrious, business-like (punctual) people

• A tradition of merit-based scholarship A tradition of merit-based scholarship

• Government actively supports entrepreneursGovernment actively supports entrepreneurs

• InnovationInnovation

Development zones Development zones …(please click)…(please click)

• Adjacent to the 17 largest citiesAdjacent to the 17 largest cities

• 3 kinds at each city – 3 kinds at each city – Hi-tech, Agriculture, ManufacturingHi-tech, Agriculture, Manufacturing

• Up-to-date facilities (e.g. broadband, foreign architects)Up-to-date facilities (e.g. broadband, foreign architects)

• Angel financing Angel financing

• Training for budding entrepreneursTraining for budding entrepreneurs

• Secondary financing (launching the enterprise)Secondary financing (launching the enterprise)

Development zone photoDevelopment zone photo

Some facts Some facts …(please click)…(please click)

• China graduates @ 600,000 engineers annually versus USA China graduates @ 600,000 engineers annually versus USA 70,00070,000

• 100,000 Chinese are studying abroad at their own expense, 100,000 Chinese are studying abroad at their own expense, (103 countries, primarily United States, Britain and Japan) (103 countries, primarily United States, Britain and Japan) 2,000/year sponsored by the Chinese government2,000/year sponsored by the Chinese government

• Annually 2,500 Chinese students earn their PhDs in the USAAnnually 2,500 Chinese students earn their PhDs in the USA• A Comparison: A Comparison:

U.S. National Debt $9.5 trillion and growingU.S. National Debt $9.5 trillion and growing Chinese reserves $1.3 trillion, also growing Chinese reserves $1.3 trillion, also growing

• The One-child PolicyThe One-child Policy– Fully imposed on 35.9% of the population - city dwellersFully imposed on 35.9% of the population - city dwellers– 52.9% (mostly rural) allowed 252.9% (mostly rural) allowed 2ndnd child if first is female child if first is female– 11% (ethnic minorities) have no limit 11% (ethnic minorities) have no limit – Enforced with fines and penalties (limited Enforced with fines and penalties (limited

advancement/schooling)advancement/schooling)– Marriage age delayed (25 for women, 26 for men) Marriage age delayed (25 for women, 26 for men) – Projected 30 million excess marriage-age men by 2020Projected 30 million excess marriage-age men by 2020

More facts More facts …(please click)…(please click)

• GDP: $3.42 trillionGDP: $3.42 trillion• GDP per capita: $2,631 (versus Canada’s GDP per capita: $2,631 (versus Canada’s

$36,000)$36,000)• Poverty (defined as less than $1/day) Poverty (defined as less than $1/day)

declined from 64% to 10% over the past 25 years.declined from 64% to 10% over the past 25 years.• Famine of 1959, 60, 61 – as many as 30 million Famine of 1959, 60, 61 – as many as 30 million

died died Approximately 5% of the population of @ 660 Approximately 5% of the population of @ 660 millionmillion

• 1976 Tangshan earthquake – of 1 million 1976 Tangshan earthquake – of 1 million population 250,000 diedpopulation 250,000 died

• Only 14.86% of the land is arableOnly 14.86% of the land is arable

Yet more facts Yet more facts …(please click)…(please click)

• The world’s 3The world’s 3rdrd largest country largest country • 4 time zones but treated as one (Beijing)4 time zones but treated as one (Beijing)• Surpassed S. Africa as the world’s largest gold Surpassed S. Africa as the world’s largest gold

producerproducer• Military service: Military service:

Two years selective compulsory 18-22 years of ageTwo years selective compulsory 18-22 years of age• 30 million people migrate to the cities each year30 million people migrate to the cities each year• Population 1.3 billion (20% of the world)Population 1.3 billion (20% of the world)

– 540 million in 1950; doubled by 1980s, when 1-child 540 million in 1950; doubled by 1980s, when 1-child policy institutedpolicy instituted

– Stable fertility rate is 2.1 – actually only 1.7 for Stable fertility rate is 2.1 – actually only 1.7 for ChinaChina

– Population expected to peak at 1.45 billion in 2030 Population expected to peak at 1.45 billion in 2030 before reducing to 1.28 billion by 2050before reducing to 1.28 billion by 2050

China’s population: 1950 to China’s population: 1950 to 20502050

Male

Female

China1950 - 540 million2050 – 1.28 billion

India1950 - 357.5 million 2050 - 1.6 billion

Something to ponder…Something to ponder…

World’s population growth (millions)World’s population growth (millions) 17501750      18001800      18501850      19001900      19501950      19991999      20502050      21502150      791 978 1262 1650 2521 5978 8909 791 978 1262 1650 2521 5978 8909 97469746

3 Gorges Dam3 Gorges Dam

• 12 times the power output of Niagara 12 times the power output of Niagara FallsFalls

• Designed to provide 10% of China’s Designed to provide 10% of China’s needs needs

• But increased demand – actually only But increased demand – actually only 3%.3%.

Concerns? Concerns? …(please click)…(please click)

• Will China try to buy control of the West?Will China try to buy control of the West?

• Will they control Greenhouse Gases?Will they control Greenhouse Gases?

• Falun GongFalun Gong

• 87,000 civil disturbances in 200587,000 civil disturbances in 2005

• Each week China opens 34 gas stations and Each week China opens 34 gas stations and puts 1000 more cars on the roadputs 1000 more cars on the road

• 570 more coal plants to be added by 2012 570 more coal plants to be added by 2012

• Army – Active: 2,250,000, Reserve: 800,000Army – Active: 2,250,000, Reserve: 800,000

Canada: $18 billion

Canadian Canadian advantages/opportunitiesadvantages/opportunities• Dr. Norman Bethune - a heroDr. Norman Bethune - a hero• Dr. Macklin - 1Dr. Macklin - 1stst Western hospital, 1886 Western hospital, 1886• 1970, Canada led the world to recognize 1970, Canada led the world to recognize

China, 2 years ahead of President Nixon's China, 2 years ahead of President Nixon's visit visit

• Our secular society (with 1.5 million Chinese)Our secular society (with 1.5 million Chinese)• Our natural resourcesOur natural resources• Canadian investments (Bombardier, Nortel, Canadian investments (Bombardier, Nortel,

mining companies)mining companies)• Wheat for famine victims 1959, 60, 61Wheat for famine victims 1959, 60, 61

ShanghaiShanghai

ShangaiShangai

Frank

Ou FulaiFortune Comes

Marion

Lei MoliJasmine Blossom

Photos from the 2008 Olympics

A co-incidence!?A co-incidence!?

Buddha: @ 563-483 BC Buddha: @ 563-483 BC

Confucius: 551-479 BC Confucius: 551-479 BC

Socrates: 469-399 BCSocrates: 469-399 BC

The EndThe End

Ou FulaiOu FulaiFortune ComesFortune Comes

For more on Frank O’Hara’s adventures go to www.ohara.com

but not for China… only the but not for China… only the beginningbeginning

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