iet clerk maxwell lecture 19 jan 2012
DESCRIPTION
"Smart Energy - now its personal". (Watch talk video at http://conferences.theiet.org/clerk-maxwell/about/index.cfm). A talk to the Institution of Engineering and Technology about how upcoming energy innovations will change how we consume energy in the home.TRANSCRIPT
Smart Energy – now it’s personal
Pilgrim Beart MIET
19th January 2012
pilgrimbeart
Who am I
• Computer Engineer• Serial Entrepreneur• Founded AlertMe
– Platform for the Smart Home– Focussed on Home Energy Management
• Tonight: How home energy is changing
Tonight
1
2 3
The national energy balance
Supplies Demands
UK Energy
National energy• “Sustainable” simply means “things you can keep doing”:
– Finite Source: 2bn years’ fossil fuel used in hundreds of years– Finite Destination too: CO2
• We take energy supplies for granted– Reliable, Affordable– A tribute to 20th-century engineers
• Exciting things happening on supply side– Wind, Nuclear, and one day Fusion
• …but need much more change, faster– 2010 emissions flat, not falling (despite recession)– Deeper cuts needed to meet carbon budgets:¶
• 34% reduction by 2020• 80% reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990 levels)
• Can do more– By addressing the demand side– At low cost (even at negative cost)¶ According to the independent Committee on Climate Change, in their 3rd Progress Report to Parliament - 30 June 2011
Source:House of Commons Library
IMPO
RTEX
PORT
UK consumes ~200GW30% in homes
Electricity supply becoming variableand undispatchable
Source: Pöyry
Wind is variable on many different timescales
Source: van der Hoven
Result: No longer can Supply just follow Demand Demand must start to adapt to Supply
Home Comforts today
How much energy do we use?Where does it come from?
Where does it go to?
Average UK home consumes 2.7kW
Today: Energy source and CO2UK annual average
Source: USWITCH JUNE 2008
Electric 0.38
Gas 2.34
Energy Source (kW average)
UK grid 500gCO2/kWhe
Natural Gas 200gCO2/kWh
Electric 1650
Gas 4100
Emissions (kgCO2)
Today: Annual energy cost: £1,036Typical UK home 2011
Source: AlertMe ADELE tool, based on UK govt stats
Lighting
SpaceHeating
HotWater
(inc. shower)Cooker
Appliances
Gas bill £508
Elec bill £528
Today: Electricity use by appliance
Source: DECC
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
ktoe
COOKING
WET
COLD
LIGHT
CONSUMERELECTRONICS
HOMECOMPUTING
Today: UK Heating
• 10m homes have neither modern controls nor thermostatic radiator valves1
• 47% can’t program their controls2
• Interaction:– If cold, increase thermostat/timings until not cold– No visibility into cost consequences– So nothing driving you to turn it down again
Sources:1 BERR Heat and Energy consultation 20082 YouGov research of 2,085 people in GB conducted on behalf of PassivSystems, April 2010
UK home average temperature
Source: BRE domestic energy fact file 2008
… but we haven’t increased our thermostats from 12°C to 18°C! We’re heating more rooms, for longer.
Today: Daily domestic profileUK 2011
Solar PV generation (summer)
Sources: EA TechnologyEU PV GIS
Heat demand (winter)
Electrical Load
00:00 08:00 16:00 00:00
Today: Home energy visibility
Q: How much am I using?
Q: Where is it going?
Q: What can I do to reduce it?
Recap: Home Energy Today
• Consumption: Invisible!• Controls: Incomprehensible!
• Electricity: Big increase in Gadget consumption• Gas: Big increase in Average heating temperature
• Energy prices rising (unsteadily)– Increasing pressure to act
• So… what?• First: insulate
Coming to a home near you
Coming to a home near you
• New energy technologies:– for Electricity & Heat– Creating and Managing them– How we’ll interact with them
• Negawatts • Consumer Gateway
Electricity from Solar Photo-Voltaic (PV)
• As Subsidy falls …. and Grid prices rise(therefore less relevant) (therefore more painful to import electricity)
…it increasingly pays to use your own electricity
21pper unit generated
(from Dec 2011)
13p (and rising)per unit imported
3p per unit exported
Heat: capture & pump
• Capture with Solar Thermal– Engineers care about efficiency– Consumers care about up-front cost!
• Heat Pump– Theoretical COP of 4+– UK trial results not nearly so good:
Source: Energy Saving Trust
Thermal stores
Drake Landing Solar Community, Alberta
Daily Annual
Credit: Natural Resources Canada
microCHP
• Generating electricity creates “waste” heat– Do it at home and it’s no-longer waste
• Combined Heat & Power for the home• Natural Gas Electricity + Heat
Stirling Engine Fuel cell
BaxiecoGen
e.g.
Intelligent Heating
User instructionsStep 1: Ignore itStep 2: Press one of 3 buttons (exceptionally)
MoreHot Water
Less Heat More Heat
Image: WattBox
Intelligent Heating
• Occupancy• Physiology• Psychology N
IGHT
LUNCH
EVENING
GET
UP
NIGHT
SAVINGS
Nest thermostatby Tony Fadell
iPod music playerby Tony Fadell
improvesall three
Modern programmable thermostat (fixed time & temp pattern)
Intelligent Heating learns and reacts to occupancy and occupants’ physiological and psychological needs
5°C
10°C
15°C
20°C
Time of Day
SIMPLICITY
NegaWatts“The cheapest Watt is the one you don’t have
to generate in the first place” (Amory Lovins)
Supplies Demands
Onshore wind generationCost: €50/MWh generated
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Research Note“Closing the gap: grid parity for onshore wind”
2011 Global average levelised cost.
Intelligent HeatingCost: €8/MWh saved
Assumptions: 10% household energy saved over 10 year lifetime.i.e. saves 1 year which is 23MWh. Costs €200 to fit.
Watts NegaWatts
Energy Efficiency Feed-in Tariff?
• “Savings Aggregator” paid to get us to save– Works on large groups– Might be utility, community, company etc.
• SA free to use whatever means they like:– Giving advice– Installing hardware– Rewards, competitions….
• Rapid and cheap to deploy• Consumers have a rational incentive anyway
– (lower bills)– But we aren’t rational, so we don’t!
Co-ordinating it all• Imagine a scenario: Bob’s day.
– Smart Meter (with Time of Use tariff)– Solar PV generation on his roof– Washing-machine has a load ready to wash– When should wash start? Who decides?
• Early visions of Smart Grid were Soviet-style– Demand Response: pulling a big lever centrally– But Utilities don’t want to manage consumer appliances– And Consumers don’t want that either
• Smart Grid may emerge bottom-up– LCNF & TSB trials exploring feasibilities– Price-driven? Define a set of policies for your home, e.g.
• Wash my clothes for no more than £0.20/wash• Ensure my EV is charged by 8:00am every morning
• Challenge will be to make all this truly “plug and play”
How will consumer react to all this?
• We are an integral “component” of the system• Bakersfield CA, Victoria Australia, Netherlands
– SM rollout issues: Unhappy with privacy/pricing• What do we need to do to shift
consumption?– Engineering + Policy
• Behavioural Psychology– Are we individuals or social?– Habits are hard to break
Behavioural Change
Source: BEN Energy AG
Savings Target
Actual Savings?
UK Smart Meter rollout
• Cost £10bn, Benefit: £15bn (?)• 5m installs/year = 19,000 per working day!
Source: Impact study, DECC 2011
Managed by the Consumer
Managed by t
he Utilities
UK Smart Meter architectureSmart Electricity MeterSmart Gas Meter In Home Display (IHD)
Comms Hub
DCC
Drives sustainedsavings of 8%*
*2011 Empower Demand study by VaasaETT
Consumer Gateway
• Appliances• Services• Internet• Future stuff!
…
The Consumer Gateway
Source: http://www.onlinemarketing-trends.com/2011/03/mobile-to-overtake-desktop-in-eu-by.html
• Co-ordinates the home• Puts Home Energy Management where your attention already is, i.e. Online• Opens the door to future energy services
Top Tip
Gateway enables Data Analytics
Top TipTop Tip
£31.95
Summary
• Sustainability isn’t optional– In a Finite world, we’re living beyond our means
• Need to (and can):– Reduce demand. NegaWatts can be cheaper & faster.– Adapt demand to supply
• 2020’s lifestyle with 1970’s consumption• Efficiency is addictive
– As a consumer• “What’s good for me is good for everyone else too”
– As an engineer• Beyond just Efficiency to Parsimony
Engineering is about people
• Consumers’ choices determine success/failure– Put consumers at the centre of our thinking– Simplicity is vital
• Explain to consumers– And learn from them
• Ensure they really benefit– Design, implement, measure – repeat
ReferencesThree must-read books:• Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air by David MacKay http://www.withouthotair.com/• Sustainable Materials – with both eyes open by Julian Allwood et al http://www.uit.co.uk/sustainable-materials• How Bad are Bananas by Mike Berners Lee http://howbadarebananas.posterous.com/
Other references:• Deeper cuts needed: Third progress report 2011 by Committee on Climate Change http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/3rd-progress-report• Energy Imports and Exports, House of Commons Library http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN04046.pdf• Energy Flow Chart 2010 by DECC http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/flow/flow.aspx• Impact of Intermittency - How Wind Variability could change the shape of the British and Irish electricity markets, July 2009 by Pöyry Energy
Consulting http://www.poyry.com/linked/group/study• Home temperature rise BRE domestic fact file 2008 http://www.bre.co.uk/filelibrary/pdf/rpts/Fact_File_2008.pdf• Home temperature rise (a contrasting view) http://www.esrc.ac.uk/_images/Shipworth_26_Jan_09_tcm8-2390.pdf• Framework for evaluation of Smart Grids, consultation document for Ofgem by Frontier Economics and EA Technology
http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Networks/SGF/Documents1/RPT-STC-%20SGCBA%20final1%20-181111.pdf• Photovoltaic Geographical Information System daily output for a 2.8kW system located around Leeds, UK, available at European Commission PV GIS
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/• 47% of consumers do not know how to program their Heating systems http://www.passivsystems.com/productPdfs/HomesOnly/Field_Trial.pdf• 10m homes do not have modern boiler controls or TRVs http://hes.decc.gov.uk/consultation/download/index-5469.pdf• Getting Warmer, a field trial of heat pumps, by the Energy Saving Trust
http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/Publications2/Generate-your-own-energy/Getting-warmer-a-field-trial-of-heat-pumps• Electricity use by appliance http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Statistics/publications/ecuk/269-ecuk-domestic-2010.xls• Rise in consumer electronics energy consumption: London-Loughborough Centre for Doctoral Research in Energy Demand
http://www.lolo.ac.uk/project/view/project/54• EE FiT: Decarbonisation on the Cheap, Dustin Benton, Green Alliance
http://www.green-alliance.org.uk/uploadedFiles/Publications/reports/Decarbonisation_on_the_cheap_dble.pdf• IHD’s drive 8% savings, Empower Demand by VaasaETT http://www.esmig.eu/press/filestor/empower-demand-report.pdf• UK Smart Meter Impact Study, DECC 2011
http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Consultations/smart-meter-imp-prospectus/1485-impact-assessment-smart-metering-implementation-p.pdf
Smart Energy – now it’s personal
Pilgrim Beart MIET
19th January 2012
pilgrimbeart
BACKUP
“We basically have 3 choices:1) Mitigation2) Adaptation3) SufferingWe’re going to do some of each.The question is what the mix will be.”
John Holdren, Science Advisor to President Obama
Estimated cost of FiTs in financial year 2011-2012 (£100m, according to Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion May 2012)
© Guardian News & Media Ltd 2011. Reproduced with permission.
War of the CurrentsEdison: DC
Tesla: AC
AC Base To Be AC To Be DC Saved0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
COOKING COOKING
WET WET
COLDCOLD
LIGHTING
LIGHTS
ELECTRONICS
ELECTRONICS
ICT
ICT
ICT/FUTURE GADGETS
ICT/High
ICT
Electronics
Lighting
Other
Cold
Wet
Cooking
To Be Savings View
Avg
KH
W p
er d
ay
Off peak
ReducedAC mains
Off bill
30%+
Ener
gy In
crea
sing
‘DC’
, Fas
t-m
ovin
g,‘A
lway
s on
’
Ener
gy ‘d
ecre
asin
g’Sl
ow m
ovin
g go
ods
AC, I
nter
mitt
ent u
se
Storing electricity as heat
Image courtesy of Isentropic Ltd.
-160°C
500°C
Round-trip efficiency ~80%(similar to pumped hydro)
Trouble in the neighbourhood
243VAC
216VAC
CHP HPEV EV
UK Smart Meter architecture
Smart DataEnergy data
In-home data
Customer-supplied dataGAS
ANALYTICS
THERMAL LOSS MODEL
OCCUPANCYMODEL
APPLIANCEMODEL
Smart Data Engine
Pre-smart meterand Smart meter
Customer Value
Taming Jevons
• Jevons Paradox:– Increased efficiency has increased consumption– (in a world of apparently inexhaustible supply)
• But now finite resource (and sink) enforces a ceiling on consumption
• Time to follow the principle of “Parsimony”?
What can we do before a Smart Grid?
• Lots!• RLTec• Interesting experiments
– Italy: 3kW or 6kW link changes behaviour
??
Reflections
Moore’s Law
http://www.singularity.com/charts/page67.html
The Learning Curveaka Experience Curve
• Moore’s Law is just a special case• The more we make, the cheaper it gets
Aircraft production
Source: C. Lanier Benkard, American Economic Review 2000
Japanese Beer Production(1951 – 1968)
1000 10000 100000
20%
Industry Accumulated Volume
Dec
reas
e in
Ret
ail P
rice
Source: William D Eggers, Deloittes, after Wally Rhines
Steam turbine generators
http://www.vectorstudy.com/management_theories/experience_curve.htm
Source: Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot Air, p19
The 1st Industrial Revolution
14%
Global
Denmark and
Germany
1984 1990 2000 2004 201110
50
100
500
1000
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
MW
LCOE from Onshore Wind Turbines
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExToolLCOE = Levelised Cost of Electricity
Solar PV Learning Curve
Ken Zweibel, GW Solar Institute, George Washington University
Moving from T1 to T2
1st Industrial Revolution
I = P x A x T1
I = Environmental ImpactP = PopulationA = AffluenceT = Technology
Paul & Anne Erhlich “the Population Bomb” 1968.
After Ray Anderson of Flor
2nd Industrial Revolution
I = P x AT2
References• FiTs costs per year by Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion May
2011 http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cp/CASEpaper145.pdf• Moore’s Law is just a special case of the Learning Curve: “Moore’s
Law is Unconstitutional” presentation by Wally Rhines of Mentor Graphics 2005 http://www.mentor.com/company/industry_keynotes/upload/INSTATSpringMicroPForum051705.pdf
• Learning Curve in Aircraft production: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~lanierb/research/Learning_and_Forgetting_AER.pdf
• Learning Curve in Solar PV http://solar.gwu.edu/index_files/Resources_files/CostCompKZ.pdf
• T1 and T2. Ray Anderson TED Talk http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_anderson_on_the_business_logic_of_sustainability.html