Identity and Empathy: Identity and Empathy: How Narratives Connect Us To How Narratives Connect Us To

OthersOthers

LtCol (USAF) Bill Casebeer, PhDLtCol (USAF) Bill Casebeer, PhDSHAPE (NATO Military HQ, Belgium)SHAPE (NATO Military HQ, Belgium)

drenbill@earthlink.netdrenbill@earthlink.netApril 7, 2007 — Self and Other ConferenceApril 7, 2007 — Self and Other Conference

OverviewOverview

Violence as a systemViolence as a system What’s in a narrative?What’s in a narrative? Storytelling and cognitionStorytelling and cognition A simple Aristotelian rhetorical model: A simple Aristotelian rhetorical model:

ethos, logos, pathosethos, logos, pathos Examples: Peru, Polynesian Islands, MaliExamples: Peru, Polynesian Islands, Mali ARGI Index: Measuring vulnerability to ARGI Index: Measuring vulnerability to

political violencepolitical violence Hypotheses on ToM, empathy, and storiesHypotheses on ToM, empathy, and stories

Violence As A System: EnvironmentViolence As A System: Environment

Failures of GovernanceIdentity Mobilization

CONVERSIONS INPUTS OUTPUTS

Resource Scarcity

Demographic Pressures

Socio-economic Deprivation

Organized Crime & Corruption

Identity Cleavages

Religious Movements

Ethnopolitical Groups

Warlords w/ Militias

Crime Networks

Eco-warriors

Tribes /Clans

City-States

Ideological Groups

Private Security GroupsReinforcing Actions

OrganizationOrganization

ENVIRONMENT

OOUUTTPPUUTTSS

IINNPPUUTTSS

SUPPORTMAINTENANCE

COGNITIVECONVERSIONS

SUB-SYSTEM FUNCTIONSSUB-SYSTEM FUNCTIONS

SUPPORTResource Acquisition

Stakeholder AssociationsRecruitment

MAINTENANCESocialization to CultureRewards and Sanctions

COGNITIVELearningStrategy

Control / Communications

CONVERSIONSTraining

ProductionOperationsM

AT

UR

ITY

GR

OW

TH

GE

ST

AT

ION

MA

TU

RIT

Y

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WT

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Gustav Freytag Triangle Gustav Freytag Triangle (1863)(1863)

Stories, Cognition, and IdentityStories, Cognition, and Identity Narratives can:Narratives can:

• Motivate (Juarrera, Thomas/Kiser/Casebeer)Motivate (Juarrera, Thomas/Kiser/Casebeer)• Structure reasoning…cue heuristics and biases, Structure reasoning…cue heuristics and biases,

modulate choice behavior, change inferences modulate choice behavior, change inferences (Graesser & Nakamura…schema; Fisher…(Graesser & Nakamura…schema; Fisher…problem solving; Greene…activation of moral problem solving; Greene…activation of moral theory)theory)

• Affect memory/recall (Chau-ping)Affect memory/recall (Chau-ping)• Shape identity and meaning…“centers of Shape identity and meaning…“centers of

narrative gravity” (Dennett)narrative gravity” (Dennett)• Identity: cognitive, realistic interest, social Identity: cognitive, realistic interest, social

identity, social constructivism (Huddy)identity, social constructivism (Huddy) Proof of concept: moral reasoningProof of concept: moral reasoning

A Simple Evaluation Model: ELPA Simple Evaluation Model: ELP

EthosEthos…credibility of source (shallow …credibility of source (shallow and thick)and thick)

LogosLogos…logic of argument…logic of argument PathosPathos…appropriate appeals to …appropriate appeals to

emotionemotion

So: for a given source, story and target So: for a given source, story and target audience, how does the narrative audience, how does the narrative stack up?stack up?

Examples:Examples: Peru Peru

TanzaniaTanzania

Polynesian IslandsPolynesian Islands

““Surrogate Consciousness” in MaliSurrogate Consciousness” in Mali

““Credentialing” Credentialing” in Maliin Mali

Narrative RecruitmentNarrative Recruitment

Hizballah…roll filmHizballah…roll film

Counter-Narrative StrategiesCounter-Narrative Strategies

1) Target audience characteristics are critical, 1) Target audience characteristics are critical, 2) Darwinian competitiveness counts,2) Darwinian competitiveness counts,3) Aristotle is better than nothing, 3) Aristotle is better than nothing, 4) There are two important story sets: the 4) There are two important story sets: the ones our adversary is telling, and the ones our adversary is telling, and the

ones being told implicitly and explicitly by usones being told implicitly and explicitly by us,,5) Tactical success may require 5) Tactical success may require

overriding strategic story considerationsoverriding strategic story considerations, , 6) Stories with firewalls are better than stories without 6) Stories with firewalls are better than stories without

defensesdefenses,,7) Adaptability and flexibility are important7) Adaptability and flexibility are important8) Listening is a critical start8) Listening is a critical start9) Authenticity is king9) Authenticity is king

At-Risk Group Identity (ARGI) Index:At-Risk Group Identity (ARGI) Index:Measuring Vulnerability to VNSA GenesisMeasuring Vulnerability to VNSA Genesis

High/HeterogeneousGroup Identity

Low/HomogenousGroup Identity

LowAt-RiskStatus

HighAt-RiskStatus

AR = INV(PO) x MR x FR

SGI = HET x GI

0 1

0

1

U.S.PERU

IRAQ

ICELAND

CHINA

YEMEN

MALI

Parting ThoughtsParting Thoughts Narratives/stories important part of Narratives/stories important part of

ecosystem of violenceecosystem of violence E/L/P evaluation a good first hack…E/L/P evaluation a good first hack…

consider viral marketing measuresconsider viral marketing measures Relationship between physical action Relationship between physical action

and story reception needs further and story reception needs further analysisanalysis

Always ask: What is setup? Climax? Always ask: What is setup? Climax? Resolution? How are stakeholders Resolution? How are stakeholders shaping this dynamic?shaping this dynamic?

ReviewReview

Terrorism as a systemTerrorism as a system Drilling down: narrativesDrilling down: narratives Storytelling and cognitionStorytelling and cognition A simple Aristotelian rhetorical model: A simple Aristotelian rhetorical model:

ethos, logos, pathosethos, logos, pathos Examples: Peru, Polynesian Islands, MaliExamples: Peru, Polynesian Islands, Mali ARGI Index: Measuring vulnerabilityARGI Index: Measuring vulnerability Parting thoughtsParting thoughts

Thank you! drenbill@earthlink.netThank you! drenbill@earthlink.net

Spare SlidesSpare Slides

Further Proof of Concept:Further Proof of Concept:Greene’s Findings--Trolley ProblemGreene’s Findings--Trolley Problem

-Description of experimental setup (Greene et al ’01)-Findings: personal vs. impersonal setups activate different brain structures (MFC/PCG/AG)

Upshot: TerrorismUpshot: Terrorism Practical issues: terrorist recruitmentPractical issues: terrorist recruitment

• No consideration of how tactically effective No consideration of how tactically effective actions may fit into strategic narrative actions may fit into strategic narrative concernsconcerns

• Identity entrepreneurs…what stories are Identity entrepreneurs…what stories are they telling?they telling?

• Example: Abimael Guzman and the Example: Abimael Guzman and the Sendero Sendero LuminosoLuminoso

SenderoSendero’s growth’s growthMembers (militia & cadre)

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Members (militia & cadre)