identifying global economic opportunities ….. the next steps prof. jamaluddin husain purdue...
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Identifying Global Economic Opportunities
….. the next steps
Prof. Jamaluddin HusainPurdue University Calumet, USA
Symposium on: EMERGING TRENDS, THREATS & OPPORTUNITIES
June-18-2011 @ Houston, TX
ASSUMPTIONS:
1. We wish to identify investment & business opportunities in “countries of opportunities”
2. Most of us would be interested in “active investment” possibilities, i.e., where we have personal involvement & control over our investment/business
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IDENTIFYING “COUNTRIES OF OPPORTUNITY”
PERSONAL CRITERIA could be:a. Language preferencesb. Country of origin; presence of familyc. Religious factors, like JKs, etc.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS could be:d. Political stabilitye. Linguistic ease, flexibilityf. Economic Stage of the country, etc.
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COUNTRIES WITH “AKDN” PRESENCE
1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Burkina Faso 5. Canada 6. Congo (Dem Rep of) 7. Ivory Coast 8. Egypt 9. India 10. Kazakhstan 11. Kenya 12. Kyrgyz Republic
13. Madagascar 14. Mali 15. Mozambique 16. Pakistan 17. Portugal 18. Switzerland 19. Syria 20. Tajikistan 21. Tanzania (& Zanzibar) 22. Uganda 23. United Kingdom 24. United States
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(*) DEVELOPED COUNTRIES(**) POLITICALLY UNSTABLE COUNTRIES
1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Burkina Faso 5. Canada (*)6. Congo (Dem Rep of) 7. Ivory Coast 8. Egypt (**) 9. India 10. Kazakhstan 11. Kenya 12. Kyrgyz Republic
13. Madagascar 14. Mali 15. Mozambique 16. Pakistan 17. Portugal 18. Switzerland (*) 19. Syria (**)20. Tajikistan 21. Tanzania (& Zanzibar) 22. Uganda 23. United Kingdom (*) 24. United States (*)
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POLITICALLY STABLE “DEVELOPING” COUNTRIES
1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Burkina Faso 5. Congo (Dem Rep of) 6. Ivory Coast 7. India 8. Kazakhstan 9. Kenya
10. Kyrgyz Republic11. Madagascar 12. Mali 13. Mozambique 14. Pakistan 15. Portugal 16. Tajikistan 17. Tanzania (& Zanzibar) 18. Uganda
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COUNTRIES with no JKs
1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Burkina Faso 5. Congo (Dem Rep of) 6. Ivory Coast 7. India 8. Kazakhstan 9. Kenya
10.Kyrgyz Republic11. Madagascar 12. Mali 13. Mozambique 14. Pakistan 15. Portugal 16. Tajikistan 17. Tanzania18. Uganda
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“AKDN” COUNTRIES + JK
1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. India 4. Kenya 5. Madagascar 6. Mozambique
7. Pakistan 8. Portugal 9. Tajikistan 10. Tanzania11. Uganda
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COUNTRIES WITH “LANGUAGE” ISSUES
1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. India 4. Kenya 5. Madagascar 6. Mozambique
7. Pakistan 8. Portugal 9. Tajikistan 10. Tanzania11. Uganda
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The LANGUAGE FACTOROFFICIAL LANGUAGES
1. Afghanistan … … PUSHTO & DARRI2. Bangladesh … … BENGALI & ENGLISH
3. India … … HINDI & ENGLISH 4. Kenya … … SWAHILI & ENGLISH
5. Pakistan … … URDU & ENGLISH6. Tajikistan … … TAJIKI 7. Tanzania … … SWAHILI & ENGLISH8. Uganda … … ENGLISH
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“PREFERRED” COUNTRIES LIST
1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. India 4. Kenya
5. Pakistan 6. Tajikistan 7. Tanzania8. Uganda
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ECONOMIC SCREENS
A. ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES x 3
B. Gross Domestic Product (GDP);GDP per Capita; growth patterns/trends
C. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)
D. EASE OF DOING BUSINESS rankings (*)“www.doingbusiness.org”
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3 x ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES
1. FACTOR DRIVEN – primarily extractive in nature; unexploited natural resources
2. EFFICIENCY DRIVEN – exhibit scale-intensity as a major driver of development
3. INNOVATION DRIVEN – characterized by their production of new &
unique goods & services that are created via sophisticated & often pioneering methods
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“ECONOMIC STAGES” BASED ON??
PRIMARILY BASED ON:
GDP per capita & share of exports of primary goods in total exports
of the country
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ECONOMIC SCREENS
A. ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES x 3
B. Gross Domestic Product (GDP);GDP per Capita; growth patterns/trends
C. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)
D. EASE OF DOING BUSINESS rankings“www.doingbusiness.org”
GDP Per Capita US$COUNTRY 2008 … 2002 2001Aghanistan 405 ... 175 102 Bangladesh 497 … 326 328 India 1,067 … 484 463 Kenya 738 … 397 402 Pakistan 955 ... 499 511 Tajikistan 716 ... 194 173 Tanzania 503 ... 309 305 Uganda 490 … 237 232 United States 45,989 … 36,797 35,898
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ECONOMIC SCREENS
A. ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES x 3
B. Gross Domestic Product (GDP);GDP per Capita; growth patterns/trends
C. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)
D. EASE OF DOING BUSINESS rankings“www.doingbusiness.org”
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FDI -- Net Inflows US$ Millions
COUNTRY 2008 2007 … 2002 2001
Aghanistan 300 243 ... 50 ~ 0Bangladesh 1,010 653 … 52 78 India 41,315 25,127 … 5,771 7,606Kenya 96 729 … 28 5Pakistan 5,438 5,590 ... 823 383Tajikistan 376 360 ... 36 9Tanzania 400 647 ... 388 388Uganda 729 792 ... 185 151
USA 328,334 271,211 … 84,370 167,020
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ECONOMIC SCREENS
A. ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES x 3
B. Gross Domestic Product (GDP);GDP per Capita; growth patterns/trends
C. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)
D. EASE OF DOING BUSINESS rankings“www.doingbusiness.org”
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EASE OF DOING BUSINESS10 x factors
1. Starting (Time, Cost, Procedures, etc.)
2. Dealing with Construction Permits
3. Employing workers4. Registering property5. Getting credit
6.Protecting Investors7. Paying Taxes8. Trading across
borders9. Enforcing Contracts10.Closing a business
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EASE OF STARTING & DOING BUSINESS
STARTING DOING
1. Afghanistan … 25 … 1672. Bangladesh … 79 … 107 …3. India … … 165 … 1344. Kenya .. … 125 … 985. Pakistan … 85 … 836. Tajikistan … 136 … 139 … 7. Tanzania … 122 … 1288. Uganda … 137 … 122
9. USA … 5 … 5
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THE NEXT STEPS
A. Other countries to think about?-- New Zealand; Australia;
Indonesia;B. Other people’s experiences
(C.A.S.E. method….. :)
C. Seek advice from professionalsD. Visits countries of choice
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COUNTRIES WITH GOOD LIFE-STYLES?
HOW ABOUT:
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAPAPUA NEW GUINEASOUTH AFRICAINDONESIA
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MY FAVORITES
»AFGHANISTAN»TAJIKISTAN»AFRICA
(K/T/U/R/B/M/M/SA)
»BANGLADESH
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C.A.S.E. studies
Russia TajikistanUSA PakistanPakistan BangladeshUSA/Dubai PakistanUSA Brazil USA Tanzania (FMCG)USA Bangladesh
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DO’s & DON’Ts
DON’TsDon’t be shocked by SURPRIZESDon’t RUSH - take your time Don’t burn your bridgesDon’t raise your expectationsDon’t think short-term
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OPICLARGER INVESTERS & THOSE LESS
INTERESTED IN ACTIVE INVOLVEMENT MAY WANT TO STUDY WHAT THE
“OVERSEAS PRIVATE INVESTMENT CORPORATION”
aka “OPIC” HAS TO OFFER(See handout)
