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InternationalTelecommunicationUnion
ICT Market TrendsICT Market Trends
Vanessa GrayMarket Information and Statistics DivisionTelecommunication Development BureauInternational Telecommunication Union
Symposium on Telecommunicationsto Commemorate the 10th Anniversary of the
Fourth Protocol to the GATS20-21 February 2008, Geneva, Switzerland
InternationalTelecommunicationUnion
Market characteristics post BTA
On the business/public sector sideCompetition and privatizationNew market opportunitiesHigher levels of investments and revenuesNew business models and technological innovations
On the consumer sideLower prices for businesses and consumers More consumer choices through new products, services and applicationsHigher ICT levels and new ICTs
Open trade in telecommunication services has contributed to:
InternationalTelecommunicationUnion
Global total telephone subscribers, billion
0
1
2
3
4
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
10 years before and after the BTA
It took over a century to reach 1 billion telephone subscribers
4 years for the second billion
(A little over)3 years for the third billion
97
2 years for the fourth billion
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database
February 2008
Competition and growth in the mobile sector
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database
0
5
1015
20
25
30
3540
45
50
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 070%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Fixed lines
Mobile subscribers
Mobile subscriber and fixed lines per 100 population, World
Mobile penetration: annual growth rate
1997-2007 CAGR: 29%
Growth of competition in mobile, 1995-2006
61%66% 67% 70% 71%
76% 78%
25%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95 97 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Competition Monopoly
February 2008
Secrets of successAffordability
Although rebalancing initially increased local call prices, international calls and mobile and Internet tariffs have decreased substantially over the last decade
AccessibilityIn 2006, global mobile population coverage was 79%
Innovation in applications, services & devices
Prepaid (flexibility & control, low-income groups)SMS (affordable, easy to use)Ultra-low-cost handsets Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database
Prepaid subscribers as a % of mobile cellular subscribers, 2006
0 20 40 60 80 100
Africa
Europe
World
Americas
Oceania
Asia
February 2008
Mobile sector…still room for growth?Majority of new subscribers during 2007 come from BRIC economies
Brazil: 15 million Russia: 20 million India: 45 million (18%)China: 80 million (40%)
From 2G to 3G and +Despite 3G auction rollercoaster and delays in rollout, more and more countries today are licensing commercial 3G networks 3G subscriber numbers on the rise
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database
Worldwide mobile subscribers
0
1
2
3
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Billion
August 2007: the number of worldwide mobile subscribers surpassed 3 billion!
48%
12%16%
19% 23%28%
34%41%
Mobile penetration
rates
At current growth rates, global mobile penetration is expected to reach 50% by early 2008 (Now!)
February 2008
IMT worldwide, 2007
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database
February 2008
Globalization of the Internet…
From 117 million Internet users in 1997 to over 1.2 billion todayMove from low to high speed
Rep. of Korea is already 100% broadbandMajor differences in fixed broadband penetration levels between countries and regions Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database
Internet subscribers by region and access type, 2006
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Asia-Pacif ic Europe Americas Africa
Million
Internet subscribersBroadband subscribersDSL subscribers
58
7281
10
Percentage of Internet subscribers that are fixed broadband subscribers
February 2008
The changing face of the sector
Wireless technologiesNGN and services
VoIPBundled and triple play packagesIPTV, VoD
Source: iDate.
Worldwide VoIP Subscribers
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Millions
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%VoIP subscribers(millions)
VoIP % share of totalmainline subscribers
February 2008
Revenues
517
1'472
0
500
1000
1500
1994 96 98 2000 02 2004 2'006
Telecommunication service revenues, in US$ billion, 1994-2006
By 2006, mobile revenues represented close to 50% of
total telecom service revenue
Telecommunication service revenue as a % of GDP
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006
Africa AmericasAsia EuropeOceania World
Telecom services sector is estimated to represent over
3.2% of global GDP
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database
February 2008
Business is ‘mobile’Global Telecommunication/ICT sector is characterized by cross-border competition and strategic investorsVodafone: active in some 30 countries across Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific and the US (total of 252 million customers)Take Africa: Top ten MNO (in terms of subscribers) include strategic investors and companies from Africa and abroad
MTN, Orascom Algeria, Glo Mobile, VodacomVodafone, STC, Maroc Telecom/Vivendi, Mobilnil/Orange
Although focus has been on mobile sector, fixed line market is increasingly open to competition and FDIFierce competition has led operators to adopt new business models and target previously unconnected/rural areas and low-income groups to increase their subscriber base February 2008: Vodafone
announces plans to add another 100 million (mainly
rural) customers in India over the next three years
February 2008
The broader impact of ICTsGrowth and developments in telecommunications and ICT have led not only to higher ICT access levels and growing revenues in the sector itselfAlthough more difficult to measure, there is clear evidence for the indirect positive impact of ICTs on
Productivity - TransparencyDevelopment (MDGs/WSIS)
January 2008 study on: Measuring the Impacts of ICT
Using Official Statistics
InternationalTelecommunicationUnion
Thank You
For further information, contact: [email protected]
and visitwww.itu.int/ict