ices advice for 2012 · 2009 2010 2011 msy (b trigger) above trigger precautionary approach (b pa,b...

ICES advice for 2012cod-haddock-whiting-plaice-sole

hake-anglerfish-megrims-Nephrops

North Western Waters RAC

Manuela Azevedo

ACOM Vice-chair

5 July 2011 – Dublin

Celtic Sea &

West, Southwest Ireland• Cod (VIIe-k)

• Haddock (VIIb-k)

• Whiting (VIIe-k)

• Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)

• Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)

• Northern hake

• Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIab)

• Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd)

• Pollack (VI,VII)

• Nephrops FUs 16-17-20-22)

English Channel• Cod (IV, VIId, Skagerrak)

• Plaice (VIId)

• Plaice (VIIe)

• Sole (VIId)

• Sole (VIIe)

West of Scotland &

Rockall (VIab)• Cod (VIa; VIb)

• Haddock (VIa; VIb)

• Whiting (VIa; VIb)

• Anglerfish (IIa,IIIa,IV,VI)

• Megrim (IVa-VIa; VIb)

• Saithe (IV, IIIa, VI)

• Nephrops (FUs11-12-13)

Irish Sea (VIIa)• Cod

• Haddock

• Whiting

• Plaice

• Sole

• Nephrops

(FUs 14-15-19)

Stocks

Expert Group (EG)Assessment of the status of

the fish stocks (scientists)

Review Group (RG)Review the work carried out by the EG;

quality assurance & peer review

(scientists independent of the EG)

Advisory Drafting Group (ADG)Draft the advice, based on the peer

reviewed assessments

(scientists & reviewers)

Advisory Committee (ACOM)Approve draft advice; consistency assurance

(1 scientist from each of the 20 ICES

member countries + chair & 4 vice-chair)

WGCSE

WGHMM

RGCS

RGBBI

ADGCS

ADGBBI

WCCS

WCBBIAdviceRelease29 June 2011

Advisory Process Advisory Process

4

Basis for ICES Advice for 2012

Management PlanConsistent PA & recognised

as potential basis for advice by interested parties

ICES MSY frameworkTransition

No

ICES PA framework

No

All options in Outlook Table for 2012

Same principles, concept & framework:

� Maximize long term average yield

� Safeguard against low SSB

� Stepwise transition to ICES MSY Harvest Control

Rule by 2015

ICES MSY frameworkICES MSY frameworkRevisited in 2011: http://www.ices.dk/advice/icesadvice.asp

6

ICES MSY Transition

FMSY-HCR transition 2012 =

“Minimum { 0.6 F(2010) + 0.4 FMSY-HCR(2012); Fpa}”

Moving from Current F2010 to FMSY in 2015 in 5 steps

FMSY-HCR transition 2013 = “Min{0.4 F(2010) + 0.6 FMSY-HCR(2013); Fpa}”



FMSY-HCR

7

ICES MSY Transition does not apply

when:i) F2011 below FMSY & SSB2012 above MSY Btrigger

F at FMSY

more rapid transition

or

FMSY-HCR asap

ii) SSB is small, further decline predicted (low R)

Stocks without population size estimates

No Overfishing Overfishing or

Unknown Exploitation

Status

Decreasing stock trend Reduce catch Reduce catch

Stable stock trend or

No trend information

Do not allow catches to

increase

Reduce catch

Increasing stock trend Do not allow catches to

increase

Do not allow catches to

increase

Do not allow catches

to increase

• Catches are already very low:

• New stocks:

Intended to move in the direction of MSY

• Catches are already very low:

• New stocks:

• Catches are already very low: No increase in catch until there is

evidence that this will be sustainable

• New stocks: catches should not be allowed to increase

Overview by species/stocks

Stock FMSY MSY Btrigger Catch/Land 2012

Cod West Scotland 0.19 22 000 t lowest possible

Cod Rockall nd nd no increase

Cod Celtic Sea 0.40 8 800 < 10 000 t

Cod Irish Sea 0.40 10 000 0


Haddock WScotland 0.30 30 000 t < 10 200 t

Haddock Rockall 0.30 9 000 < 3 300

Haddock VIIb-k nd nd no increase; technical

measures

Haddock Irish Sea nd nd reduce; technical

measures


Whiting WScotland nd nd reduce; improve selection pattern

in Nephrops fleet

Whiting Rockall nd nd no increase

Whiting Celtic Sea nd nd no increase; technical measures

to reduce discard rates

Whiting Irish Sea nd nd Reduce to lowest possible;

technical measures to reduce

discard rates



Plaice SW Ireland 0.24 nd reduce

Plaice W Ireland nd nd no increase

Plaice Celtic Sea nd nd reduce; technical measures

Plaice Irish Sea nd nd no increase; tech measures

Plaice W Channel 0.19 2 400 t < 1440 t

Plaice E Channel nd nd no increase


Sole SW Ireland 0.31 nd no increase

Sole W Ireland nd nd no increase

Sole Celtic Sea 0.31 2 200 t < 1 060 t

Sole Irish Sea 0.16 3 100 < 200

Sole W Channel 0.27 2 800 < 740

Sole E Channel 0.29 8 800 < 5 600


Stock FMSY MSY Btrigger Catch/Land

2012

Hake – Northern 0.24 nd < 51 900 t

Angler VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd reduce

Angler IIa,IIIa, IV, VI nd nd reduce

Megrim IVa, VIa nd nd no increase

Megrim Rockall nd nd no increase

Megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd reduce

Pollack VI, VII nd nd no increase


FU HR (FMSY) MSY Btrigger Catch/Land

2012

VI: 11 North Minch 12.5% 465 million < 3 200 t

12 Sout Minch 12.3 1 016 < 5 500

13 Firth Clyde 16.4 579 < 4 200

13 Sound of Jura 14.5 nd < 900

VII: 14 Irish Sea E 9.8 nd < 960

15 Irish Sea W 17.1 3 billion < 9 800

16 Porcupine nd nd no increase

17 Aran Grounds 10.5 nd < 1 100

19 Ireland nd nd reduce

22 Celtic Sea 10.9 nd < 2 300

20-21 Celtic Sea nd nd reduce


• Cod

• Haddock

• Whiting

• Anglerfish

• Megrim

• Saithe

• Pollack

• Nephrops (FUs 11-12-13)

West of Scotland & Rockall (VIa & VIb)

Blim=14 & MSY Btrigger= 22 th t

Advice for 2012: catches in 2012 should be reduced to the

lowest possible

FMSY=0.19

Cod in Division VIa (West of Scotland)

Total mortality is high

SSB increased since 2006 (lowest) but remains well below Blim

Recruitment low for many years

Cod in Division VIa (West of Scotland)

Haddock in Division VIa (West of Scotland)

F (Fishing Mortality)

2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY) At target

Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim) Harvested sustainably

SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)

2009 2010 2011

MSY (Btrigger) Below trigger

Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim) Reduced reproductive

capacity

0

10

20

30

40

50

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Lan

din

gs

in 1

00

0 t

Landings

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

F(a

ge

s 2

-6)

Fishing Mortality Fpa

FMSY

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Re

cru

itm

en

t in

mill

ion

s

Recruitment (age 1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

SS

B in

10

00

t

Spawning Stock Biomass Blim

Bpa

MSYBtrigger

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.5 1.0

SS

B i

n 1

00

0 t

Fishing Mortality (ages 2-6)

2010

MSY: Landings in 2012 no more than 10 200 t. The selection pattern

should be improved in the Nephrops (TR2) fleet to reduce discards

2009 YC

strong

rel terms

MP under

development

MSY Btrigger= 30 th t

FMSY=0.30

Haddock in Division VIa (West of Scotland)

Discards 2010 – 51% (catch of 5 830 t)

Splitting discards by fleet shows that Nephrops vessels (TR2) are

responsible for ~88% of all discards while landing only 21 tonnes, less

than 1% of the total landings (2882 tonnes).

Haddock in Division VIb (Rockall)


2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY) Below target

Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim) Harvest sustainably


2009 2010 2011

MSY (Btrigger) Above trigger

Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim) Full reproductive capacity

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1991 1996 2001 2006

F(a

ge

s 2

-5)

Fishing Mortality Fpa

FMSY

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1991 1996 2001 2006

Re

cru

itm

en

t in

millio

ns

Recruitment (age 1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

SS

B in

10

00

t


Bpa

MSYBtrigger

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

Ca

tch

es in

10

00

t

CatchesLandings

Discards

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0.0 0.5 1.0

SS

B i

n 1

00

0 t


2010

MSY: Landings in 2012 should be no more than 3 300 t

MSY Btrigger= 9 th t

FMSY=0.30

MP under

development

Haddock in Division VIb (Rockall)

- Last years the discards are significantly reduced as a result of the small

number of young haddock in the population: discard ratio ~ 47% (1991–

2009) and 34% in the recent period (1999–2009); in 2010 ~8%

- Estimates of discards in the EU is a main uncertainty in the assessment

and forecasts

Whiting in Division VIa (West of Scotland)

MSY: Catches in 2012 should be

reduced. The selection pattern should

be improved in the Nephrops (TR2)

fleet.

Anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius & L. budegassa) in

Divisions IIa and IIIa, and Subareas IV and VI


2008 -2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim) Unknown


2008 - 2010

MSY (Btrigger) Unknown

Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim) Unknown

Qualitative evaluation Stable

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

10

20

30

40

Year

Abundance (millions)

Northern shelf (partial)

Area IV (partial)

Area VIa

AreaVIb

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Year

Biomass ('000 tonnes)

Northern shelf (partial)Area IV (partial)

Area VIa

AreaVIb

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Year

Official landings (thousand tonnes)

VIb

VIa

IVc

IVb

IVa

IIIa

IIa

Advice 2012: Catches should be reduced

Recent dedicated anglerfish surveys

(SCO-IV-VI-AMISS-Q2) in Division IVa

and Subarea VI indicate a decline in

trends of abundance in 2007–2009

and stable biomass in recent years.

Megrim (Lepidorhombus spp) in Rockall


2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary


SSB (Spawning Stock Biomass)

2010


Precautionary


Qualitative evaluation increasing

Advice 2012: No increase in catch

24

Celtic Sea, West & Southwest Ireland

• Cod (VIIe-k)

• Haddock (VIIb-k)

• Northern hake

• Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIab)

• Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd)

• Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)

• Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)

• Whiting (VIIe-k)

• Nephrops FUs 16-17-20-22

Cod in Divisions VIIe–k (Celtic Sea cod)


2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY) Above target

Precautionary



2009 2010 2011


Precautionary


0

5

10

15

20

25

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Lan

din

gs

in 1

00

0 t

Landings

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

F(a

ge

s 2

-5)

Fishing Mortality Flim

Fpa

FMSY

0

5

10

15

20

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Re

cru

itm

en

t in

millio

ns

Recruitment (age 1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

SS

B in

10

00

t


Bpa

MSYBtrigger

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

SS

B i

n 1

00

0 t


2010

MSY: F in 2012 be set at FMSY = 0.40, resulting in landings of

10 000 t in 2012.

MP under

development

by the

NWWRAC

Discard rates

have increased in

some fleets in

2010, and this

discard

information is

incomplete in the

assessment

2009 YC

Cod in Divisions VIIe–k (Celtic Sea cod)

Because of the large 2009 year class is now entering the fishery, which was not

anticipated in last year’s advice or TAC, there will be a large inconsistency

between the TAC set for 2011 (4023 t) and the predicted landings for that year,

assuming the current fishing mortality (10 500 t). Therefore, in the absence of

any effort limitation and/or TAC revision, high discarding will occur

Haddock in Divisions VIIb–k


2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary




2009 2010 2011


Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim)

Unknown

Qualitative evaluation Strong increase

Catch

5

10

15

20

25

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Discards

Landings

1993 1998 2003 2008

F(a

ge

s 2

-5)

Fishing Mortality

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Re

cru

itm

en

t

Recruitment (age 0)

1993 1998 2003 2008

SS

B

Spawning Stock Biomass

Advice 2012: No increase in catch and technical measures

to mitigate the increased discarding of recruiting YC

Discarding is a serious problem!

These fish become of marketable

size from age 2 onwards:

they are likely to be discarded

due to a restrictive TAC.

Over last 10 years: 70% discarded

< MLS

Whiting in Divisions VIIe–k


2008 - 2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary



2008 - 2010


Precautionary


Qualitative evaluation Increasing

0

5

10

15

20

25

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

La

nd

ing

s in

10

00

t

Landings

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

F(a

ge

s 2

-5)

Fishing Mortality

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Re

cru

itm

en

t in

millio

ns

Recruitment (age 0)

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

SS

B in

10

00

t

Spawning Stock Biomass

Advice 2012: No increase in catch and technical measures

to reduce discard rates

29

Advice 2012: Catches should be reduced. Discards exceed landings and

technical measures should be introduced to reduce discard rates

Plaice Celtic Sea (VIIf,g)

Discards are substantial and have ranged from 30% to 70% in number

(mainly below the minimum landing size);

In 2011 discards were included in the assessment for the first time,

although the time series of discard data available is short

62%

discards in 2010

(700 t)

Sole in Celtic Sea (VIIf,g)


2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY) Appropriate

Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim) Harvest sustainably


2009 2010 2011


Precautionary


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Lan

din

gs

in 1

00

0 t

Landings

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

F(a

ge

s 4

-8)


Fpa

FMSY

0

5

10

15

20

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Re

cru

itm

en

t in

mill

ion

s

Recruitment (age 1)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

SS

B in

10

00

t

Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa

MSYBtrigger

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

SSB

in

10

00

t


2010

MSY: Landings in 2012 should be no more than 1060 t

Above

since 2001

Sole in Celtic Sea (VIIf,g)

Anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius and L. budegassa)

Divisions VIIb–k and VIIIa,b,d


2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary



2008 2009 2010


Precautionary


Qualitative evaluation Decreasing


2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary



2008 2009 2010


Precautionary


Qualitative evaluation Decreasing

Lophius piscatorius

Lophius budegassa

Advice 2012: Catches should be reduced

Ageing; lack of discard data

Hake – Northern stock

MSY: landings in 2012 should be no more than 51 900 t

34

English Channel (VIId & VIIe)

• Cod (IV, VIId, Skagerrak)

• Plaice (VIId)

• Plaice (VIIe)

• Sole (VIId)

• Sole (VIIe)

35

Cod NS (EU/Norway MP):

Landings in 2012 shoud be no more than 31800 t

36

Plaice VIId: no increase Plaice VIIe: < 1 440 t

Sole VIId: < 5 600 t Sole VIIe: < 740 t

Plaice VIIe– Western Channel

MSY: landings in 2012 should be no more than 1440 tabove avg

Discards are not

included in the assessment.

Discard rates of plaice in Division VIIe

are much lower compared

to other plaice stocks

Plaice – Western Channel

Sole VIId – Eastern Channel

MSY: landings in 2012 should be no more than 5600 t

YC 2001, 2004, 2005: above avg

highest

Sole – Eastern Channel

41

Irish Sea (VIIa)

• Cod

• Haddock

• Whiting

• Plaice

• Sole

• Nephrops

Cod in Division VIIa (Irish Sea)


2008 2009 2010


Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim) Harvested unsustainably


2009 2010 2011


Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim) Reduce reproductive capacity

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

SS

B i

n 1

00

0 t


2010

SSB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

SSB ( t)

Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger

Recruitment

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Nos at age 0 ('000)

Fishing mortality (age 2-4)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

F

Flim Fpa Fmsy

Landings

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Landings (t)

MSY: Zero catch in 2012

F in recent years is

uncertain (due to

unaccounted mortality)

but total mortality remains

very high;

ten-fold

decrease

Haddock in Division VIIa (Irish Sea)


2008 -2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary



2009 - 2011


Precautionary


Qualitative evaluation Below poss. reference points

Recruitment (Age1)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

mean standardised rec (Age 1)

SSB

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Relative SSB

Landings

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Landings (tonnes)

Z

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Relative Mean Z (2-3)

SURBA value

empirical value NIGFS-WIBTS-Q1

Whiting in Division VIIa (Irish Sea)


2008 - 2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Unknown

Qualitative evaluation Above poss. reference points


2009 - 2011


Precautionary


Qualitative evaluation Below poss. reference points

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Year class

RecruitmentNIGFS-WIBTS-Q4NIGFS-WIBTS-Q1

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.501991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Year

SSBNIGFS-WIBTS-Q4NIGFS-WIBTS-Q1

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Year

Total Mortality Z (1-3)NIGFS-WIBTS-Q4NIGFS-WIBTS-Q1

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Landings ('000t)

Year

Landings

45

Haddock: reduce;

tech measures

Whiting: reduce;

tech measures

Plaice: no increase;

tech measures

Irish Sea

46

Haddock: reduce;

tech measures

Whiting: reduce;

tech measures

Measures:

• spatial and temporal changes in fishing practises;

• technical measures such as increased codend

mesh size, square mesh panels, separator trawls, and

increased top sheet mesh in towed gears

Discarding is a serious problem for this stock. The

discard rates for all fleets in 2010 were 92-100%

for one-year-olds; 22–96% for two-year-olds and

3–68% for three-year-olds by number

Measures:

In order to minimise discards, a square mesh panel of

at least 120 mm should be introduced for all fleets or

selectivity devices that achieve equivalent or better

improvements

Irish Sea

Sole in Division VIIa (Irish Sea)


2008 2009 2010


Precautionary



2009 2010 2011


Precautionary


capacity

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Lan

din

gs

in 1

00

0 t

Landings

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

F(a

ge

s 4

-7)


Fpa

FMSY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Re

cru

itm

en

t in

mill

ion

s

Recruitment (age 2)

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

SS

B in

10

00

t


Bpa

MSYBtrigger

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

SS

B i

n 1

00

0 t


2010

MSY: Landings should be no more than 200 t



2008 2009 2010


Precautionary



2009 2010 2011


Precautionary


capacity

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

La

nd

ing

s in

10

00

t

Landings

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

F(a

ge

s 4

-7)


Fpa

FMSY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010R

ecru

itm

en

t in

millio

ns

Recruitment (age 2)

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

SS

B in

10

00

t


Bpa

MSYBtrigger

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

SS

B i

n 1

00

0 t


2010

50

and the Nephrops ...

51

FU 11 – North Minch

FU 12 – South Minch

FU 13 – Firth of Clyde

&

Sound of Jura

VIa

52

FU 11 – North Minch 2012: < 3 200 t

FU 12 – South Minch 2012: < 5 500 t

FU 13 – Firth of Clyde

2012: < 4 200 t


2008 2009 2010


Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim) Not defined


2009 2010 2011


Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim) Not defined


2008 2009 2010


Precautionary



2009 2010 2011


Precautionary



2008 2009 2010


Precautionary



2009 2010 2011


Precautionary



2008 2009 2010


Precautionary



2009 2010 2011

MSY (Btrigger) Not defined

Precautionary


FU 13 – Sound of Jura

2012: < 900 t

Nephrops in North Minch (FU 11)F (Fishing Mortality)

2008 2009 2010


Precautionary



2009 2010 2011


Precautionary


1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

FU 11 : International Landings

01000

2000

3000

4000

1995 2000 2005 2010

0500

1000

1500

FU 11 : TV abundance

Year


1995 2000 2005 2010

010

20

30

FU 11 : Harvest rate

Year

Reported Harvest Rate %

Nephrops in South Minch (FU 12)


2008 2009 2010


Precautionary



2009 2010 2011


Precautionary


1995 2000 2005 2010

05

10

15

20

25


Year


1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007


01000

3000

5000

1995 2000 2005 20100

500

1500

2500


Year


Nephrops in the Firth of Clyde + Sound of

Jura (FU 13)

1995 2000 2005 2010

010

20

30

40

50

FU 13 - Firth of Clyde : Harvest rate

Year


1995 2000 2005 2010

0500

1000150020002500

FU 13 - Firth of Clyde : TV abundance

Year


1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

FU 13 - Firth of Clyde : International Landings

01000

3000

5000

Nephrops in the Firth of Clyde + Sound of

Jura (FU 13)

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

FU 13 - Sound of Jura : International Landings

0100200300400500

1995 2000 2005 2010

0100200300400500600

FU 13 - Sound of Jura : TV abundance

Year


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

05

10

15

FU 13 - Sound of Jura : Harvest rate

Year


57

FU 16 – Porcupine Bank (VIIbcjk)

VII

FU 17 – Aran Grounds (VIIb)

FU 20-22 – Celtic Sea (VIIgh)-18.00 -16.00 -14.00 -12.00 -10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.0048.00

49.00

50.00

51.00

52.00

53.00

54.00

55.00

15 14

20-22

19

17

18

16

FU 14 – Irish Sea East

FU 15 – Irish Sea West

FU 19 – Ireland SW and SE

58

FU 14 – Irish Sea East

2012: < 960 t

FU 15 – Irish Sea West

2012: < 9 800 t

FU 16 – Porcupine Bank

2012: no increase


2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY)

Below target

Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim)

Undefined


2008 2009 2010

MSY (Btrigger)

Undefined

Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim)

Undefined

FU 17 – Aran Grounds

2012: < 1 100 t

59

FU 22 – Celtic Sea

2012: < 2 300 t

FU 20-21 – Celtic Sea

2012: reduce

FU 19 – Ireland SW and SE

2012: reduce

Nephrops in Irish Sea East (FU14)F (Fishing Mortality)

2008 2009 2010


Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim) Undefined


2008 2009 2010

MSY (Btrigger) Undefined

Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim) Undefined

Abundance FU 14

Harvest rate FU 14

Nephrops in Irish Sea West (FU 15)F (Fishing Mortality)

2008 2009 2010


Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim) Undefined


2008 2009 2010


Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim) Undefined

1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004


02000

6000

10000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

01

23

45

6



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

05

10

15

20



Nephrops in Irish Sea West (FU 15)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

101994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Billions (UWTV)

UWTV Survey

NI-NEP-Trawl-Summer

Btrig

Nephrops on Porcupine Bank (FU 16)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Effort index

Effort '000hrs

Effort

France ('000 hrs trawling)

Rep. of Ireland ('000 hrs trawling)

Spain (effort index) (*)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

% Males in the Landings

Male Numbers

Male Weights

Survey Male

Numbers



2008-2010

MSY (FMSY)

Undefined

Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim)

Undefined

Qualitative evaluation

High exploitation rate


2008-2010

MSY (Btrigger)

Undefined

Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim)

Undefined

Qualitative evaluation

Increasing, from critically low

abundance

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-slope(lnCL,lnNos) (CLs 41-56)

Exp lo itatio n P ro xy


0

5 00

10 00

15 00

20 00

25 00

30 00

35 00

40 00

45 00

50 00

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Lansings (t)

L a n d in g s

0

0 .5

1

1 .5

2

2 .5

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Standardised LPUE

LP U E in d ic e s

S p a in

F ra n ce

I re la n d

0 .00

0 .20

0 .40

0 .60

0 .80

1 .00

1 .20

1 .40

1 .60

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Abundance in KG/haul

A b u n d a n ce K g / h a u l

0 .00

5 .00

10 .0 0

15 .0 0

20 .0 0

25 .0 0

30 .0 0

35 .0 0

40 .0 0

45 .0 0

50 .0 0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Abundance in Number/haul

A bu n d a n ce N u m b e rs / h a u l


28

32

36

40

44

48

52

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mean size (mm)

Males

28

32

36

40

44

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mean size (mm)

FemalesSpain

Ireland

France

Porcupine Survey

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

% numbers from LFDs

% >=50mm Recruit Proxy <32mm

Nephrops on Aran Grounds (FU 17)F (Fishing Mortality)

2008 2009 2010

MSY (FMSY)

Below target

Precautionary

approach (Fpa,Flim)

Undefined


2008 2009 2010

MSY (Btrigger)

Undefined

Precautionary

approach (Bpa,Blim)

Undefined

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009


0200

600

1000

1400

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

05

10

15

FU 17 : Harvest rateReported Harvest Rate %

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0200

400

600

800



Nephrops off the south-eastern and south-

western coasts of Ireland (FU 19) F (Fishing Mortality)

2008-2010

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary



2008-2010


Precautionary



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

LPUE (Kg/hrs)

LPUE All

LPUE >18m

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Effort ('000s Hrs)

Effort hrs All

Effort hrs >18m

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Lan

din

gs (

ton

ne

s)

Landings

Nephrops off the south-eastern and south-

western coasts of Ireland (FU 19)

Nephrops in the Celtic Sea (FU 20–22)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Landings (t)

Landings

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Mean-standardised LPUE

LPUE indices

France FU20-22

Ireland FU 22

Ireland FU 20-21

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Fishing effort ('000s Hrs)

Fishing ef fort Trend FU 20-22

France

Ireland

FRA+IRL

Nephrops in the Celtic Sea (FU 20–22)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

05

10

15

20



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


05001000

2000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0500

1000

1500



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