ice® technology conference ted demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007 the future of technology ted...
TRANSCRIPT
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
The Future of Technology Ted Demopoulos
ICE® Technology Conference 2007
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
We are a lot further along than we think
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
We’ll Look At:
•Where we are today•Two major issues today -- and very much into the future•Where we are going
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Technology Pervades Society(more deeply than we think)
• My “special” friend Ralphie, email junkie
• My 102 year old father (or so he claims) just got online
• People check their email when they get up at night to go to the bathroom
• When my plane landed in Edmonton, what did “everyone” immediately do?
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Spaceship Demopoulos
– Sonar– GPS/Maps/Gives you directions out loud– DVD Player– Microprocessor in keys – anti-theft – Rearview camera– etc.
The Six Million Dollar Van?
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
•Technological advances allow the production of more output from existing resources
-more efficient ways of producing existing output-production of new (or substantially improved) items
• We gain both from more output/cheaper prices and from improved items and innovations
Let’s Take a Step Back:Technology – the basic idea:
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
“Killer Applications” of Technology
• Email• Online Shopping and Retailing• Information Access• Cell Phones
Many more, e.g. medical and industrial examples quickly come to mind
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
“Less than Killer Applications” of Technology
-Non disruptive applications of technology-Small incremental improvements to our lives
• DVD players, ball point pens, antilock brakes, central heat, air conditioning, etc.
Their net sum is extremely significant
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
. . . ape-descended life forms are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea...
-Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
We think Technology is pretty neat
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
This Leads To Problem #1
• “Technology for Technology’s Sake”
- unnecessary complexity– Examples:
• Complexity in MS Word
• The need to reboot anything
• Microprocessors in car keys
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Unnecessary Unreliability
• Unnecessary complexity leads to unnecessary unreliability
• Complexity increases attack surface
• Simply more that can go wrong!
• Often no backup plans
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Do most people or organizations have workable backup plans for when technology fails?
Ted’s Backup Plan for This Trip
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
My Not Particularly Smart House
Sometimes has a mind of it’s ownCalls the policeCalls the fire department
What could a “Smart House” do?
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
SIMPLE is Good
“Make everything as simple as possible”
-Albert Einstein
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
The Full Quote
“Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler”
-Albert Einstein
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Reliability?• Technology has been evolving so rapidly,
the emphasis has been on functionality, not reliability
• This will (need) to change!
• If Microsoft had focused more on reliability, would Windows own the desktop?
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Problem #2Too Much Information
• The “Information Overload” Age
• Endless interruptions: cellphones, IM, pagers, email
• More productive or less so?
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Privacy
• Distant past – villages – little privacy. Reasonable in context
• Recent past – cities/industrial age. Reasonable privacy
• Today – who has your data? Is it yours? Is it correct?
• I fear Big Brothers – e.g. Google, Microsoft, Verizon, Marketing Agencies, everyone who stores personal data
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Beware Big Brother MSN Virtual Earth?
Does your insurance company know about the trampoline Ted? Why is Bob’s car there alone?
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Ted’s Hobbies
• You got building permits for those antennas Ted?
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
As told to a new client
• I see Joe Schmoe just spent a week with your organization. He’s very positive on the experience. . . . . . He’s sitting in the Phoenix airport waiting to go home and his flight is delayed . . . .
• From the Technorati.com search engine, a multi page posting on a blog
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Where We Are Going
1) Integration of technology into our world
2) Reliability – will be assumed – in the future
3) Ease of use – enormous work on the Human-Computer interface
4) Technology only where it makes sense
5) Health Care/Life Extension/Alleged Immortality (at least for the very rich!)
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Two Final Thoughts
The Small Non-Disruptive “Less Than Killer Applications” of Technology add up to a lot
(Imagine a small audio recorder that records, and indexes, your whole life – so you don’t forget anything)
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
There Is One Future
The Future of Technology is The Future
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ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Thank You
Ted Demopoulos, [email protected]