ic22 extraterrestrial cascades search unblinding proposal joanna kiryluk, lbnl 05/06/2009
DESCRIPTION
IC22 extraterrestrial cascades search unblinding proposal Joanna Kiryluk, LBNL 05/06/2009. Filtering && Data and Monte Carlo comparisons Extraterrestrial Flux Sensitivities Summary + 4. Backup slides. 1. Event Selection (shown previously). Cascade Pole Filter: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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IC22 extraterrestrial cascades search-unblinding proposal
Joanna Kiryluk, LBNL
05/06/2009
1. Filtering && Data and Monte Carlo comparisons
2. Extraterrestrial Flux Sensitivities
3. Summary
+
4. Backup slides
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Cascade Pole Filter: LineFit Velocity < 0.25 and Tensor of Inertia Evalratio > 0.109
Level3:Zenith>1.27 && (TrackLlh logl - CscdLlhVertex negLlh) > -16.2Zenith>1.27 && (TrackLlh logl - CscdLlhVertex negLlh) > -16.2
Level4: Level4: Contained events filter: Contained events filter: Events must start inside a fiducial volumeEvents must start inside a fiducial volume
Level5+6Level5+6Cleaning tails ….Cleaning tails ….
Level2Level2
Data BurnData Burn
Event Selection (shown previously) Event Selection (shown previously)
Level 2-6 Cuts description && more details in backup slides pages: 25-45Level 2-6 Cuts description && more details in backup slides pages: 25-45 22
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Cut LevelCut Level
Bg/SignalBg/Signal
Background reduction vs cut level - SummaryBackground reduction vs cut level - Summary
11triggertrigger L2 L4 L6L2 L4 L6
After Level6:After Level6: N(Bg)/N(Signal) ~ 10 N(Bg)/N(Signal) ~ 1033
N(Signal) ~ 160 events in 240 days (EN(Signal) ~ 160 events in 240 days (E-2-2)) 33
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Level>=4: running out of bg MC statistics
Cascade Filter levels comparison: Data vs MC
Level 2 Level4 Level6Level 2 Level4 Level6
NChannelsNChannelsExcess in dataExcess in data
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Cascade Filter levels comparison: Data vs MC Level 2 Level4 Level6Level 2 Level4 Level6
CO
GX
Shapes (COGX and COGY) ~ consistent
Ra
tes
[Hz]
Cascade Pole Filter
CO
GY
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Data/MCData/MC
Rate problem: above AND below dust layerRate problem: above AND below dust layer
Cascade Filter : Data vs MC (1)
Level 2 Level4 Level6Level 2 Level4 Level6
Cascade Filter levels comparison: Data vs MC C
OG
Z
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Cut LevelCut Level
TriggerTriggerCascadeCascadePoleFilterPoleFilter
11
After Level6:After Level6: Factor of ~3 discrepancy between Factor of ~3 discrepancy betweenCorsika and experimental rates (bg rate ~10Corsika and experimental rates (bg rate ~10 -2-2 Hz) Hz)
Data/Corsika Rates Ratio vs cut levelData/Corsika Rates Ratio vs cut level
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fill-ratio= Nr of Hit Doms / Nr of All Doms within a sphere
MeanMeanxx
CscdLlhVertexCscdLlhVertex
Level7: Background reduction using hit topology: Fill-ratio (Doug Rutledge’s module)
distribution of distance between
hit DOM and reconstructed vertex
(for each event)MeanDistanceMeanDistance
xx R=R=22*MeanDistance*MeanDistance
Center= CscdLlhVertexCenter= CscdLlhVertexExample: Example: Fill-ratio=2/10 = 0.2Fill-ratio=2/10 = 0.2
Bad DOMs excludedBad DOMs excluded 88
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NuE Corsika Data 10% Level7 cutBelow dust layer
NuE Corsika Data 10% Level7 cutAbove dust layer
Fill-Ratio vs SphereRadius (Level7): Data vs MC
Agreement between data and bg MC in shape above dust layer,Agreement between data and bg MC in shape above dust layer, Different shape in data and corsika below dust layer:Different shape in data and corsika below dust layer: Depth dependent cuts based on Data! Depth dependent cuts based on Data!
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Cut LevelCut Level
Bg/SignalBg/Signal
No data @Level 7No data @Level 7 2 corsika events@Level7 2 corsika events@Level7
Background reduction vs cut level - SummaryBackground reduction vs cut level - Summary
11
1010
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Example of surviving corsika eventExample of surviving corsika event
After Level7 && NCh>50 : After Level7 && NCh>50 : 56 signal events56 signal eventsFor 240 daysFor 240 days
2 events corsika2 events corsika(corresponds to (corresponds to 10+2.8=13 events in 10+2.8=13 events in 240 days)240 days)
No dataNo data
1111
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Energy Reconstruction: final cut (Level8) Energy Reconstruction: final cut (Level8) CscdLlh energy reconstruction settings: S. Lafebre && B. Fox (PSU)
Two distributions: depth dependence not build-in to pandel phit-Two distributions: depth dependence not build-in to pandel phit-nohit (uses Bulk ice). Thus cannot cut on RecoEnergy without nohit (uses Bulk ice). Thus cannot cut on RecoEnergy without making a depth dependent correction ~ +/-0.4making a depth dependent correction ~ +/-0.4
NuENuE
Log(TrueEn) - Log(RecoEn)Log(TrueEn) - Log(RecoEn)
TopTopBottomBottom
Log(RecoEn)Log(RecoEn)
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Ab
ove
du
st l
ayer
Ab
ove
du
st l
ayer
NuE RecoEnNuE RecoEnNuE TrueEnNuE TrueEn
Bel
ow
d
ust
lay
erB
elo
w
du
st l
ayer
After RecoEnergy CorrectionAfter RecoEnergy CorrectionBefore RecoEnergy CorrectionBefore RecoEnergy Correction
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Below dust layer:Below dust layer: Above dust layer:Above dust layer:
Signal Signal ee (True)Energy distribution after final (Level8) cuts (True)Energy distribution after final (Level8) cuts
Mean=5.26Mean=5.26Mean=5.23Mean=5.23
Log(TrueEnergy)Log(TrueEnergy)Log(TrueEnergy)Log(TrueEnergy)
Uniform energy range for top and bottom parts of the detectorUniform energy range for top and bottom parts of the detector
MC 182 TeV e
Level8 cut: Log(RecoEn_corrected)>4.2Level8 cut: Log(RecoEn_corrected)>4.2 - not optimized, due to limited bg MC statistics- not optimized, due to limited bg MC statisticsAfter final (Level8) cut, 0 events from the burn sample and corsika remainAfter final (Level8) cut, 0 events from the burn sample and corsika remain
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Position and Energy resolutions Position and Energy resolutions After Level8 cut on log(E_reco)After Level8 cut on log(E_reco)
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Below dust: Below dust:
Above dust: Above dust: Rms=0.26Rms=0.26
Rms=0.31Rms=0.31Lo
g(T
rueE
n) -
Log
(Rec
oEn)
Log(
Tru
eEn)
- L
og(R
ecoE
n)Lo
g(T
rueE
n) -
Log
(Rec
oEn)
Log(
Tru
eEn)
- L
og(R
ecoE
n)
Log(TrueEn) - Log(RecoEn)Log(TrueEn) - Log(RecoEn)
Log(TrueEn) -Log(RecoEn)Log(TrueEn) -Log(RecoEn)
Log(TrueEn) Log(TrueEn)
Log(TrueEn) Log(TrueEn)
Energy Resolution (Level8)Energy Resolution (Level8)
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Position resolutions at L8 (NuE MC) for CscdLlhVertex
diff CscdLlh Vertex
X Mean=0.1RMS=10.9
Y Mean=-0.9RMS=10.9
Z Mean=-12.RMS=26.
TrueY-RecoYTrueX-RecoX
TrueZ-RecoZ
1717
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ExpectedExpected event upper limit event upper limit And flux limit after unblindingAnd flux limit after unblinding
For unblinding we propose to use For unblinding we propose to use all the cuts ( Level <=8 )all the cuts ( Level <=8 )
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<mu90> for bg=0.0
Event upper limit
<mu90> for bg=10
If much better bg MC statistics were available then we could estimate bg precisely and If much better bg MC statistics were available then we could estimate bg precisely and do bg subtraction to get a better limit (Fieldman-Cousins) do bg subtraction to get a better limit (Fieldman-Cousins) Since we don’t have enough MC, we can assume all observed events (after Since we don’t have enough MC, we can assume all observed events (after unblinding) are signal and set an upper limit for the mean of Poisson variable given unblinding) are signal and set an upper limit for the mean of Poisson variable given N_observed events in the absence of background [1-CL=Sum_0^Nobs PN_observed events in the absence of background [1-CL=Sum_0^Nobs Pxx(n) ](n) ]
240 days of livetime and CL=90%
Conservative limit!Conservative limit![ Used e.g. in HEP experiments [ Used e.g. in HEP experiments to set limits on rare decays to set limits on rare decays branching ratios ] branching ratios ]
1919
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E2xlimit =MRFx10-6 [GeV s-1 sr-1 cm-2]E2xlimit range: 7 x (10-8 - 10-7) [GeV s-1 sr-1 cm-2] (conservative limit )assuming n_observed events < 20 after unblinding range depends on n_observed after unblinding If much better MC statistics were available then we could do bg subtraction to get If much better MC statistics were available then we could do bg subtraction to get a better limit - but we don’t. Use limit assuming no bg.a better limit - but we don’t. Use limit assuming no bg. “problem” if significantly more events observed after unblinding
MRF to estimate flux limit expectations after unblinding
<mu90>/nsignal for bg=0.0
<mu90>/nsignal for bg=10
2020
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Summary1. Data and MC rate discrepancy: increases with cut level. Shapes agree better than rates, bigger discrepancy below dust level
(e.g. fill-ratio) 2. Final cuts based on data (burn sample), but also on (a few) bg MC
events with long-er effective lifetime than data (insufficient bg Monte Carlo statistics)
3. Will use a conservative method to estimate flux limit assuming no background contribution (no precise estimate of background contribution thus no background subtraction method)
3. Final energy range: ~20 TeV to ~1PeV (Mean ~ 160 TeV)4. Expected results after unblinding: E2xlimit range: 7 x (10-8 - 10-7) [GeV s-1 sr-1 cm-2] if n_observed < 20 after unblinding
[ Flux limit will depend on number of observed events after all cuts after unblinding. Problem if “large” number of events observed]
• ICRC writeup (analysis description) available on the wiki page:
http://wiki.icecube.wisc.edu/index.php/Papers_for_ICRC-2009
Ready to unblind 2121
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BACKUP SLIDESBACKUP SLIDES
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1. Data - burn sample (24 days)
2. Monte Carlo samples:a) Signal: electron neutrino: - dataset 1736 and 1739 NuGen E
-2 spectrum, log10(E)= 1.6 - 10.0 Total = 3.5 M IC22 triggered eventsb) Background MC - Corsika (single muon) dataset 1540 (unweighted) dataset 1541 (weighted)
Total= 280 M IC22 triggered events
- Corsika (coincident muon) dataset 1567 (unweighted) - Corsika (tri-coincident muon) dataset 1569 (unweighted) much smaller samples: 1.8M IC22 triggered events / set
Data and MC Samples
100k files generated100k files generatedHuge effort, production @multiple sitesHuge effort, production @multiple sites
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InIce SMT trigger
Rat
e [H
z]R
ate
[Hz]
Time [Mjd]
PoleCascade filter
Trigger rate: temperature variationData: 515 Hz to 615 Hz MC: 565 HzData/MC AgreementData/MC Agreement
CascadeFilter rate:Data: 18 Hz to 22 HzMC: 14 HzData/MC ~ 1.3 -1.6Data/MC ~ 1.3 -1.6
CascadeFilter/Trigger rate ratio: Data: 0.032-0.036 (stable)MC: 0.025
07/01/07 03/16/08
Experimental rates taken from the Monitoring page
Trigger and PoleCascadeFilter rates
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Cascade Pole Filter: data vs MC
LineFit velocityLineFit velocity ToI evalratioToI evalratio
P. Toale && M. D’Agostino filter proposal: LineFit Velocity < 0.25 and Tensor of Inertia Evalratio > 0.109
L2/Trigger Bg reduction = 0.025L2/Trigger Bg reduction = 0.025 Signal fraction = 0.71 Signal fraction = 0.71
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Cascade Filter (Level3 FINAL): Data vs MC Common cut for atmospheric and extraterrestrial analyseCommon cut for atmospheric and extraterrestrial analyseModule Module CscdL2Filter (Michelangelo D’Agostino UCB) (Michelangelo D’Agostino UCB) Zenith>1.27 && (TrackLlh logl - CscdLlhVertex negLlh) > -16.2 Zenith>1.27 && (TrackLlh logl - CscdLlhVertex negLlh) > -16.2
This is a This is a loose cut for extraterrestrial analysisloose cut for extraterrestrial analysis
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Level3 optimalization for Level3 optimalization for Extraterrestrial analysis Extraterrestrial analysis
Later it was decided to use looser cuts Later it was decided to use looser cuts And keep the same i3 files for atmospheric And keep the same i3 files for atmospheric And extraterrestrial analyses And extraterrestrial analyses
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Zenith [rad]
Data: Excess of ‘cascade-like’ events with small values of reconstructed Zenith angle and small values of RllhTrack/RllhCscd are for COGZ at the bottom of IC22
Cascade Filter Level2: Data vs MC (5)
RllhTrack / RllhCscd
Corsika (single muons): Events with Zenith>1.4 rad are misreconstructed downgoing “leading” muons
Reconstruction results from TrackLlh and CscdLlh algorithms
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Zen
ith
RllhTrack / RllhCscd
Signal eCorsika backgroundData (run=109831)
Level3 Cuts: Reconstruction Results at Level2
TrackLlh Zenith vs RllhTrack/RllhCscd
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Zenith Cut [rad]
Sqrt(N_bg) / N_Signal vs Zenith Cut in RllhRatio bins:
RllhRatio=0.8
RllhRatio=0.9
RllhRatio=1.0
RllhRatio=1.025
1.4 1.70.8
N_Signal / sqrt(N_bg) maximum for: Zenith> 1.4 rad and RllhRatio > 1.0
(proposed cuts for this analysis at level3)
Level3 cuts optimalisation
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Find the best combination of cuts on Zenith and
RllhTrack/RllhCscd by minimizing sqrt(N_bg)/N_sig (using Monte Carlo only)
assuming 240 days of livetime and signal flux(es) = 1.0 x 10-6(7) E-2 .
Extraterrestrial e: Level3 Cuts Optimalisation
Result: Level3 cut = Zenith> 1.4 rad && RllhTrack/RllhCscd > 1.0
4 TeV
1.0x10^6 E-2 flux N_sig(Level3) N_sig(Level2)
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Event display: Level2 Cascade Filter events
NCh= 293 Nstrings= 19Reco: TrackLlh Zenith= 0.59 rad Rllh-track/Rllh-cscd ratio= 0.71
2 example events from run=109831(real data)
NCh= 57 Nstrings= 8Reco: TrackLlh Zenith= 0.62 rad Rllh-track/Rllh-cscd ratio= 0.83
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Cascade Pole Filter
Improvement in Rate vs COGZ (Corsika and Data)
After Level3 cuts
Cascade Filter Level3 proposed cut: Data vs MC
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Cascade Pole Filter After Level3 cuts
Improvement in #channels distribution (Corsika and Data)
Cascade Filter Level3 proposed cut: Data vs MC
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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Level2Level2
Data BurnData Burn
Events must start inside Fiducial volume
Cascade Filter (Level4):contained event filter (data)
ContainedFilterModule (Steve Movit PSU)ContainedFilterModule (Steve Movit PSU)
+ 8 DOMs top layer of the detector + 8 DOMs top layer of the detector
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Geometrical effect:For cascades inside fiductial volume filter efficiency is 100%
Before (Level3) and After (Level4) contained Filter
Filter most efficient at lowest energies
Log10(MCPrimaryEnergy) Log10(MCPrimaryEnergy)TruePosX
Cascade Filter (Level4):contained event filter (signal MC)
L4/L2 Bg reduction = 0.012L4/L2 Bg reduction = 0.012 Signal fraction = 0.13Signal fraction = 0.13
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PosX distributions in PosY bins PosX distributions in PosY bins
Sum Sum
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Extraterrestrial e: Summary of Statistics (MC)
@Trigger Level , Cascade Filter Level and Analysis-Level4 Assumed: Livetime= 240 days and signal flux = 1.0 x 10-6 E-2
(A) InIce SMT trigger
(B)
Cascade Pole Filter (L2)
B/A (C)L3+L4
L3+Contained Filter
C/B
Nsig (MC) 2.7x103 1.8x103 0.71 240 0.13
Nbg (MC)
(data)
1.2x1010
1.3x1010
2.7x108
4.6x108
0.025
0.035
3.2x106
6.3x106
0.012
0.014
Nbg (MC)
Nsig (data)
4.1x106
4.8x106
1.5x105
2.5x105
1.3x104
2.6x104
Nbg(data)
Nbg(mc)
1.1 1.7 2.0
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Run=109930 3-muon event
T1-T2[ns]
Cut=5 s
First hit from the earliest muon starts in the middle of the detector, thus passing contained filter cut
long tailUp to 60 s
T2
T1
NChannel =152T1-T2=13 s
Cascade Filter (Level5): Data vs MC (1)
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Zenith>1.2rad Bg: Misreconstructed downgoing muon
32-iteration track reconstruction
Zenith>1.2rad downgoing muons
Nchannels NCh>=20Nchannels NCh>=20 (loose cut) (loose cut)
Cascade Filter (Level5): Data vs MC (2)
running out of MC statisticsrunning out of MC statistics
L5/L4 Bg reduction = 0.07L5/L4 Bg reduction = 0.07 Signal fraction = 0.69Signal fraction = 0.69
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Zenith>1.2rad for (Single) Corsika: Misreconstructed downgoing muons(96% of L5a NuE events survive)
32-iteration track reconstruction
Level 5b) downgoing muons Zenith angle cut
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Examples of ‘Cascade’ like events with highest Nchannel multiplicity at Level5
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After Level5After Level5
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Reconstructed Cascade vertex and COGX (COGY) less than 60 m apart:
Cascade Filter (Level6): Data vs MC (1)
XX YY
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Cascade Filter (Level6): Data vs MC (2)
Time(FirstTrack)-Track(Secondtrack) > -1000ns Time(FirstTrack)-Track(Secondtrack) > -1000ns (Double muon reconstruction)(Double muon reconstruction)
Reduced Llh Track/Cascade > 0.95Reduced Llh Track/Cascade > 0.95
L6/L5 Bg reduction = 0.37L6/L5 Bg reduction = 0.37 Signal fraction = 0.98Signal fraction = 0.98
CscdReducedLlh=(negLlh/(nHits + unHitContribution - freeParams));
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ToI evalratioToI evalratio LineFit velocityLineFit velocity
Variables not usable for further cutsVariables not usable for further cuts
COGXCOGX COGYCOGY
COGZCOGZ
After Level7&&NCh>50: tightening the cutsAfter Level7&&NCh>50: tightening the cuts
56 signal events56 signal eventsFor 240 daysFor 240 days 2 events corsika2 events corsika(corresponds to (corresponds to 10+2.8 evts 240d )10+2.8 evts 240d ) No dataNo data
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After Level7 - tightening the cutsAfter Level7 - tightening the cuts
56 signal events56 signal eventsFor 240 daysFor 240 days 2 events corsika2 events corsika(corresponds to (corresponds to 10+2.8 evts 240d )10+2.8 evts 240d ) No dataNo data
Variables not usable for futher cutsVariables not usable for futher cuts
After Level7&&NCh>50: tightening the cutsAfter Level7&&NCh>50: tightening the cuts
NChNCh
NStringsNStrings
Llh DiffLlh Diff
EventLengthEventLength
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Extraterrestrial e: Summary of Statistics (MC)@ L4,L5 and L6
Assumed: Livetime= 240 days and signal flux = 1.0 x 10-6 E-2
MC (C) L4
L3+Contained filter
(D) L5
T<5s &&
Zenith>=1.2 &&
NCh>=20
(E) L6= L5 &&dT(double )< -1000ns &&
RllhTrack/Cscd <0.9 &&
|CscdPosX-COGX|<60m&&
|CscdPosY-COGY|<60m
(F) L7
Fill ratio
+Nch>50
L8
Nsig (MC) 240 165 161 56 43
Nbg (MC)
data
3.2x106
6.3x106
2.3x105
4.9x105
8.6x104
27.7x104
13 (2 evts)
0
0
0
Nbg
Nsig
1.3x104
2.6x104
1.4x103
3.0x103
5.3x102
17 x102
0.23
0
0
0
Nbg(data)
Nbg(mc)
2.0 2.1 3.2 No data
Low mc
MC underestimate rates: Factor of 2 (3) at L4 (6)L7&&L8 Insufficient MC Large uncertaintiesL7&&L8 Insufficient MC Large uncertainties
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‘‘Baloon’ events (at Level2) Baloon’ events (at Level2)
-small fraction observed mostly at the top part small fraction observed mostly at the top part of the detector (not x-y symmetric!) of the detector (not x-y symmetric!) - removed by fiducial volume cuts - removed by fiducial volume cuts
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Dom#
Dom#
Dom# 6 Dom# 7
Dom# 6 Dom# 7
String 73
String 39
Depth dependence!
String 73
String 39
Q [p.e.]
Q [p.e.]
<Q
> [p
.e.]
<Q
> [p
.e.]
Cascade Filter Level2: Total charge per Dom vs depth Shown at the Spring 2008 Collaboration meeting
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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
<Q
tot>
String Position Y[m]
<Q
tot>
String Position X[m]
Mean total charge per Dom versus String Position X(Y) e.g. for DOM# 3 (i.e. at fixed depth)
string73
Discrepancy between data and MC Problem caused by small fraction of events with large charge. Effect more pronounced at the top of IC22
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<Q
tot>
String Position X[m]
Good agreement between data and MC
StringPosition Y[m]
Cascade Filter Level2: Data vs MC (4a)
Mean total charge per Dom versus String Position X(Y), e.g. for DOM# 55 (i.e. at fixed depth)
<Q
tot>
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NCh=32 Nstrings=6
<Q
tot>
DOM#
Example of (rare) event (run=109831) with large charge
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(73,3)
(73,4)
Calibrated ATWD Calibrated FADC
(73,5)
(73,6)
(73,7)
CascadeFilter Level2: Example of (rare) event (data)with large charge
NCh=32 Nstrings=6
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Dom#
Dom#
Dom# 6 Dom# 7
Dom# 6 Dom# 7
String 73
String 39
Depth dependence!
String 73
String 39
Q [p.e.]
Q [p.e.]
<Q
> [p
.e.]
<Q
> [p
.e.]
Cascade Filter Level3+4: Total charge per Dom vs depthEvents with large charge got removed - agreement between data and MC
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Large charge eventsLarge charge events
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Energy Reconstruction: final cut (Level8)Energy Reconstruction: final cut (Level8) CscdLlh energy reconstruction settings: S. Lafebre && B. Fox (PSU)
NuENuE
Log(TrueEn) - Log(RecoEn)Log(TrueEn) - Log(RecoEn) vs log(TrueEn) :vs log(TrueEn) :
Log(RecoEn)Log(RecoEn)
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Depth dependent cut on RecoEnergyDepth dependent cut on RecoEnergy
Bel
ow
du
st l
ayer
:B
elo
w d
ust
lay
er:
Ab
ove
du
st l
ayer
:A
bo
ve d
ust
lay
er:
Below dust layer: Below dust layer: Log(RecoEn)Cut =4.8 Log(RecoEn)Cut =4.8 25 NuE events (240 days)25 NuE events (240 days)
Above dust layer: Above dust layer: Log(RecoEn)Cut=4.2 Log(RecoEn)Cut=4.2 18 NuE events (240 days)18 NuE events (240 days)
Log10(Energy) for TrueLeadingCascade (NuE) at Level7: Log10(Energy) for TrueLeadingCascade (NuE) at Level7:
Log(RecoEn)>4.8Log(RecoEn)>4.8
… … OR Depth dependent Energy correction?OR Depth dependent Energy correction?
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Energy resolutions at L8 (NuE MC) for CscdLlhVertex
At Level2 the problem visible, but not as serve as at Level8At Level2 the problem visible, but not as serve as at Level8
Level8Level8 Level2 Level2 (for a comparison)(for a comparison)
COGZ>0COGZ>0
COGZ<0COGZ<0