ibn khaldun and today’s pakistan imran khan post

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11/23/2015 Ibn Khaldun and today’s Pakistan

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Ibn Khaldun and today’s Pakistan

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Ibn Khaldun’s The Muqaddimah is often cited as the first work of historiography

and the forerunner to the social sciences. However, he is best known for his

theory of cyclical patterns of power – of the rise and fall of civilisations. Arnold

Toynbee, the western historian, declared Muqaddimah to be “the greatest work of

its kind that has ever yet been created by the human mind.”

According to Ibn Khaldun, what brought the ruin of a civilisation was not lack of

military, political or economic power but injustice – when society lost its

commitment to justice, ethics and fair play, and when powerful members of

society put their own interests above those of the community.

Ibn Khaldun went on to list the human rights contained in Islam that needed to

be protected: the right to life, religion, education, family and property. His

conclusion was that the ultimate purpose of the Islamic community was toestablish justice by protecting people’s fundamental rights. The greater the

commitment to justice, the stronger the community.

A glance at history shows that civilisations with a better justice system prospered.

Roman laws were superior to those of the ‘barbarians’. Later, the State of Madina

was based on ‘Adl and Insaf’ and created one of the most egalitarian societies

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based on rule of law and economic justice – setting up the first welfare state in the

history of mankind. The rapid spread of Islam was due to its vastly superior

system of justice. For instance, in the 9th Century Muslim scholars were debating

the rights of the child.

Unlike the Mongolian conquest, no rivers of blood flowed when Islam spread

from Morocco to Indonesia, armed with a superior value and justice system.

When the Ottomans moved into Eastern Europe, they liberated the peasantry

from the oppressive feudal system that prevailed there. And, just as Ibn Khaldun

had predicted, when the Muslims’ commitment to justice declined so did theircivilisation. While Muslims began moving towards absolute kingship, European

attempts to bring their rulers under rule of law started with the Magna Carta in

the 13th Century. Even the British administered their empire in India through

rule of law.

Today the Muslim world has hit rock bottom. No Muslim country can compete

with the Europeans in the way the latter protect the human rights of their

citizens. In Europe free quality education is provided to people; there is free legal

aid to those citizens who cannot afford lawyers, free medical care to the poor, and

the state looks after the welfare of the unemployed, the old and the handicapped.

The Scandinavian countries stand out with their commitment to justice; even


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accounts abroad.

The right to quality education is reserved only for a tiny elite. There are 800,000

children getting English-medium education, two million going to madressahs and

30 million who go to Urdu-medium schools. And the most shameful statistic is

that we have 25 million children out of school. Similarly, health facilities only

cater to the rich. The majority of the citizens end up in poor quality hospitals,

getting substandard care and having to buy medicines they cannot afford. About a

quarter of a million children die annually because of water-borne preventable

diseases.

The bulk of the population has no access to justice, not being able to hire lawyers

to face the lengthy and cumbersome criminal justice system. An ex-IG of prisons

made a startling disclosure in a seminar a few years back that half the prison

population is innocent – their only crime being their poverty. Meanwhile our

ustice system is incapable of bringing the powerful elite under the rule of law.

The rich can get away with almost every crime starting from land grabbing,

money laundering, and stealing taxpayers’ money to murder. While the average

citizen’s life, property and family face daily threats, a large proportion of the

police force protects the VIPs.


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Ibn Khaldun’s greatest contempt was reserved for those citizens who passively

accepted injustice in the society. Almost 2000 years earlier, Aristotle had stated

that those citizens who do not stand up against injustice are either cowards or

selfish being a part of the vested interest. Islam makes it a sacred duty (jihad) to

stand up against oppression and injustice.

How far we have sunk to depths of accepting injustice could be gauged after the

2013 general elections when the leaders of almost all political parties claimed the

election was rigged. Yet the entire ruling elite accepted this enormous crime

where the basic human right of a citizen, the sanctity of his vote, was violated. Alldictators have held elections but because they are neither fair nor free, citizens do

not matter. If the citizens’ votes become irrelevant, rulers don’t have to worry

about their welfare, nor be held accountable to the taxpayers. So funds can be

diverted to questionable mega projects rather than human development.

It took two years of relentless campaigning, including 126 days of dharna, to

finally force the ruling political mafia to form a judicial commission to investigate

the crime. In any western democracy the process of probing electoral fraud would

have been over within a matter of weeks.

Pakistan stands at a critical crossroads in its history today. We can keep going as


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Written by

we are, where a ruling elite keeps plundering the country and stashing its loot

abroad, while the citizens sink into a sea of inflation (to pay the ruling elite’s

debts through higher prices) and poverty.

The sense of injustice and deprivation amongst the smaller provinces will

continue to weaken the federation with an East Pakistan/Bangladesh situation

waiting to happen. Or we can stand up for our rights and fight for a just society –

the reason Pakistan was created.

This article was published in The News on Sunday, May 24, 2015.

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Usman Younis, FS (TÜV) Ma shaa Allah ( اش ما (هللا

Assalam o Alaikum to all,

Very nice post by Imran Khan (the leader chosen by many including myself), Ilove it, especially when some great Muslim scholar is given respect who

teaches the people to do good (significance of such Islamic Scholars is given

in my posts-6).Imran Khan's post has a Lot of likes (120) (I am sure the original post in

newspaper would of had a huge number of views), comments (37) and views(1149).

It provides some nice statistics, and ideas, most of which are agreeable.

As I would like to see Imran Khan's Posts getting Hundreds of thousands of

views and/ or likes like Barak Obama or other Linkedin Influencer

personalities)

So I have some constructive feedback, I hope nobody will not mind

As there is always room for improvement and Continuous improvement is the

Japanese way of doing things called Kaizen.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaizen

An America variant is 6 Sigma

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma

there may be other such techniques to improve processes slowly, gradually,

continual steps rather than giant leaps.

I would like to add some advice related to Linkedin Post that

- Kindly start with "Bismillahir Rahmanir Raheem"- Add some pictures or graphs to show statistics graphically, improves the

overall look of your post

- Highlight key points with quotes option in Linkedin Post- Provides references (in the form of web links) should be provided for

YOU

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statistics from research reports

- and instead of just focusing on Scholars from Islamic History, we shouldalso actually open the Quran and Sunnah and provide reference (in the form

of click able web links pointing directly to one or more Verses or Hadiths)Implementing Quran and Hadith is a step by step process

http://quran.com

http://www.sunnah.com

https://darussalampublishers.com/

My Posts as a sample

Kindly do review my post-1,(1352 views, >90% international view outside

Pakistan)https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/words-praise-allah-reward-unknown-why-one-

explanation-usman-younis-?trk=mp-reader-card

My Post 2 is just a job advertisement I posting so I am not counting that

Kindly do review my post-3 (256 views)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/very-powerful-zikar-fs-tüv-ma-shaa-allah--ام

شا -هللا -?trk=mp-reader-card

Kindly do review my post-4 (137 Views)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/islamic-dua-calender-fs-tüv-ma-shaa-allah--امشا -هللا -?trk=mp-reader-card

Kindly do review my post-5 (166 Views)https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/islamic-calendar-from-darussalam-arabic-

english-urdu-usman-younis-?trk=mp-reader-card

Kindly do review my post-6 (139 Views)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/significance-one-who-teaches-people-do-good-per-jami-usman-younis-?trk=mp-reader-card

More on the way (In Sha Allah)

2042 views in 9 months


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(almost every Quran Verse or Hadith quoted with complete reference),and I actually haven't got time yet to write about my International Experiences

over 11+ years, technical stuff or what I do professionally as an engineer.

Kindly add me on Linkedin If you wish, Thanks

Allah Hafiz

Like Reply 8 days ago

Muhammad Yousuf Khan

love you bro :)


2nd

Ansari Abdulaziz

And someone some day has to do it.For the sake of our children, our upcoming generations.

Corrupts are fed by vested interest which always seems indomitable !But history show it (the corrupts and corruption) can be overcome. No

doubt,it is a difficult proposition today.But If people don't rise up today,

Tomorrow there ought to be bloodshed that will take us to more chaos and

confusion.If Imran Khan is just a small window displaying a beam of light lets take a

chance and strengthen him with hope of achieving some desirable result.Not only the judicial system but the entire state infrastructure has been

corrupted by vested interest. Corrupt politicians are just their available fooltools."


2nd

mazahirul I. 2nd

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it is nt only for pakistan this ibn khaldoun justice system is valid for alltheworld system.see un practises only protecting the interest of powerful

countries.


Raja Ali Raza

well said Ibnay Khaldoon

Like Reply 1 month ago

Imran Saleem

Wonderful post.

Like Reply 1 month ago

2nd

Arslan Rabbani

u are our Hero

Like Reply 2 months ago

Mohammed shafiq

pakistan needs a leadership that can take it into the 21st century i have

thought long and hard about it and have come to a conclusion that if youhad the right network of intelligent committed and loyal people that have the

2nd

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same goal which is make pakistan an independent self sustainable country

insha allah we will achieve our goalI also believe ik is the man for the job he has the capabilities vision and

commitment


Asad Ullah Hunain

Impressive but when we start implement this in our lives ?


2nd

Azfar Iqbal

it's good to read but .......


2nd

Muhammad Ammad Husain

But today Innocent Khan sack Retd Justice Wajijh, same guy which wasnominated by his party, in 2013 for President of Pakistan.


Mustafa baloch

I Love IK


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Faraz Latif

Khan Love You


Affan K.

Khan Sb You are the only one which can change this system ὠ


Mujtaba Bhatti

Though I am an IK liker (not to be mistaken by follower) and what he says

in relation to Prophet (PBUH) and Ibn Kaldun are right, but this selectivechoice based on subjective nature would be the downfall of IK.

We had the josh-e-khitabat politicians, we did not needed more.

Islam tells us to not lay accusations without proof, but there has been a lot

of accusations by IK without much substance.

Islam tells us of humility and not to make false promises, but both have notbeen been IK's forte.

If IK likes to quote and follow the life of Prophet (PBUH), then he would bewise to remember the Hijarah from Makkah to Madina and setting up a

system there without interfering in the politics of Makkah for a very longtime.

The proof of rigged elections eists for KPK LG elections too, though IK took

2nd

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a higher moral ground by offering re-elections (I admire him for that), at thesame time he should look into the report of Justice (Retd) Wajihuddin,

where he may have oversteppedd his mandate but what he is saying is

hitting quite close to home.

IK needs to get his mojo back and rethink his position, he needs to stick

with clean people. Welcome all but remember New is Silver but Old is Gold.

Like(1) Reply 4 months ago

Shahzad Latif

Munir Ahmed khawaja

True to the core


2nd

Aqsam Zaheer

We have a large number of competent ibn e khaldun . But they have noplace to sparkling theirselves. But we hope . One day allah will make

pakistan a economic leader . Insha allah


Aqsam Zaheer

Sir elite also include the prominent business icons. who feed their theemployees with low wages vs massive work. But so called employed people

are complled to do work. Due to increasing unemployment they can't skip

their jobs for better opportunity. So resulting brain drain. If we makesubstitute of 80 Billion worth of metro bus service ; we can established

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approx 80 no of public limited co. with 1 billion equity each. N thesecompanies will have a capacity to addopt nearly 1 lac skilled n un skilled

manpower. But why govt did not think on it. Alass

Unlike(1) Reply 4 months ago

You

Muhammad Nasir

Commitment to justice is indeed a key element for any sustainable society


2nd

Abdul Hameed

Muhammad Tariq Hameed. I think you better learn English first & then

comment on my leader. Lol


Asir Iqbal

There is only one hope and ray for bright future of PAKISTAN who is Imran

Khan....INSHAALLAH ONE day we will achieve our target and justice.


Muhammad Tariq hanif

i thing better play cricket

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Asher Moin

Its a professional network don't use it as Facebook.


2nd

Zahid Khalid

Imran Khan needs to learn only one lesson from Mughal Emperor Jalal-ud-Din Mohammed the GREAT: Build a team (Nau Ratans: even he made

wrong choices) of "Uncompromising People of Spot-less Character" acrossthe country!" For that he needs at least 2500 to 5000 people at district,

provincial and federal levels. I don't see a dozen around him!!! He needs to

understand the difference between cricket, philanthropy and politics. It iseasy to bring outstanding professionals on board from across the globe. But

politicians???


2nd

Dr.Muhammad Arshad

A person having past full of immortality and even at present doubtful lifestyle , is desirous of being known as a person fitting in a character capable

of bringing the society to the standard of Ibn e Khuldun'Muqadma

A brief picture of his style and capacity we have seen under his command

during Baldiati Elections.


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S. Qaisar Shareef

This is a very well written assessment of the unfortunate situation in

Pakistan today. The reference to Ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah is very apt. By

the way, the original writings of Ibn Khaldun are preserved in a library inFes, Morocco.


2nd

Usman Zafar

Great Publication - We must Open our Eyes NOW-


2nd

Atiq Ahmed

... 25 million out of school... what a shame


2nd

Neha Wasim

Great piece of sb..may Allah bless you always..


Abdul Rahman Marwat

AssalamoAlykum

2nd

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18/68



A very happyRamzan ul kareem mubarik!

StayHappyStaysafe

StayBlessed :)

Have a nice day


Faraz Bin-Feroze

.........brought the ruin of a civilisation was not lack of military, political or

economic power but injustice – when society lost its commitment to justice,

ethics and fair play......


Asif Farooqui

Imran sb: walking back into the Islamabad, Punjab and Sindh assemblies is

not helping your cause, at all! I am sure, the vast majority is getting

disillusioned by political compromises being made at this very early stage of the social justice revolution you seemed at one time , to be leading!! Alas,

not anymore!


2nd

Naseem Ahmed

Days are counted for Zardari-Sharif consortium, Inshallah.

2nd

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19/68




Nadeem Aslam

The pivotal point in introducing the Ibn Khaldun's philosophy of history is the

miraculous part played by "Group Feeling", Ibn Khaldun's "Muqaddimah" was

certainly a great work not of its own times only. It was a great achievement inthe field of philosophy for all times to come. Yet it is also true that similar

esteemed jobs have been done by thinkers of different ages. We cannot

believe a certain theory to be true just because it was most imaginative,nicely treated, beautifully presented or that it came from one of our own clan.

We as Muslims would only believe that truth lies in whatever has beenrevealed to us by God Almighty and explained and presented by the Holy

Prophet (peace be upon him) or whatever can achieve testimony of these

two sources.

We believe that in his "Muqaddimah" Ibn Khaldun has not truly characterized

the meanings of group feeling, whereas the Holy Quran has distinctly spokenabout it. The Quran says that the prime most hurdle in the path of those who

have been presented the "Call" (ةوعد) to prostrate to the One Almighty andbelieve in the authority of the Prophet (peace be upon him), is a group feeling

based upon untrue and unhealthy norms. Thus the very idea of group feeling

has been stated to have more that one connotation. A group feeling whichleads to the right path is the only desired one. This type of group feeling can

also be named as . (Hamiyyah) a term that connotes much higher valuesحميۃ

The group feeling Ibn Khaldun has spoken of, is based "on lineage or place

and culminates in the establishment of royal authority". Now we as Muslimsknow that those group feelings which generate the ideas of (worshipآبا رستی

of kinship) are the abominable one. Again, a group feeling that persuades a

man to stick to the culture and ideology of his own tribe or sect (be it right or wrong) is the greatest hindrance in the evolution of moral values. No change

in the ideology of a people can take place if they are not willing to change

their cultural pattern.

2nd

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Thus it is evident that "Asabiyyah" should have been dealt with by Ibnعصبيہ

Khaldun, just as it has been treated by the Quran. By ignoring the realsignificance of Quranic concept Ibn Khaldun made certain other

misjudgements as well He talks of religion as a dynamic force that makes the

group powerful. In fact Ibn Khaldun should have talked of Ideology and notReligion. He should have talked of Faith as the basic dynamic force yet

another and the basic fact that Ibn Khaldun ignores in the character of religion to nullify all the prevalent groups and evolve a unique group of itsown.

Like(1) Reply 5 months ago

Babar Khan Javed

Ubaid Ur Rehman

Sir, it’s truly inspirational, but the thing is that the Pakistani society even lost

or forgets the real definition of justice. Believe me I witness commoners

argument each other on something that they consider “justified” because itsuits them, they eager to give every possible reasons (Even it is lame) in

fair of their argument, so there micro motives will be protected or get somesort of acceptance from other members of the society. And Why not they

behave like that, as they it form the proceedings of our legislative institutes

(National Assembly & Senate) that their representative gathers to debate,argue and develop consciences on 18 19 20 and 21 and may be so on

amendments in constitution, which suites every one of them (and only

them) in some manner, as some of them expected to take benefit fromthem and others are anticipating the relief in future from them.


2nd

Akber Iqbal, MBA, PMP 2nd

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21/68



we are unable to get out of this divide-and-conquer scheme, (upon their

demise) colonials were replaced by their loyalists and this viscous circle

continues; A free and fair justice system can help us get out of this, your movement for justice is a beacon of hope for us all.


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22/68



Holiday Shopping 2015: Naughty or Nice?

American consumers, start your engines! This weekend kicks off the holiday

shopping season and here is what you need to know. The always-dubiousNational Retail Federation (NRF), the industry cheerleader, is predicting a 3.7

percent increase in holiday spending. But as Barry Ritholtz has noted, “the

methodology employed by the NRF survey is defective, because it relies on asking

consumers how much they spent last year, and how much they plan on spending

this year.” Of course, people have “no idea what they spent last year. No clue

whatsoever,” which is why “the track records of these surveys are awful.”

So what’s really going on for consumers, as we head into Thanksgiving week?

Although wage gains have been slow to pick up overall, relatively low inflation has

amounted to extra money in the wallets of most Americans. They are spending

some of that money on long lasting goods, like cars, as well as services; and also

saving at a decent 4.8 percent rate. But it is anyone's guess as whether they will be

naughty or nice this holiday season.

And bad third quarter earnings reports from Macy's and Nordstrom

notwithstanding, the death of brick and mortar retailers has been overstated.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-26/retailings-black-friday-hoaxhttps://nrf.com/resources/holiday-headquartershttps://twitter.com/intent/tweet?&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fpulse%2Fholiday-shopping-2015-naughty-nice-jill-schlesinger&text=%22Holiday%20Shopping%202015%3A%20Naughty%20or%20Nice%3F%22%20by%20%40jillonmoney%20on%20%40LinkedInhttps://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fpulse%2Fholiday-shopping-2015-naughty-nice-jill-schlesinger&t=Holiday%20Shopping%202015%3A%20Naughty%20or%20Nice%3Fhttps://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fpulse%2Fholiday-shopping-2015-naughty-nice-jill-schlesingerhttp://-/?-


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Despite the rapid growth of digital sales (the government said that overall E-

commerce jumped 15.1 percent in the third quarter from a year ago), most

shopping occurs in physical stores. In fact, last quarter, E-commerce accounted

for just 7.4 percent of overall retail sales.

But these numbers are somewhat misleading, because overall retail sales include

the big-ticket automobile category, as well as gas and groceries. According to

consultancy Strategy&, these groups are responsible for almost half of total retail

sales. Without them, online’s penetration of its “addressable market” is closer to

16 percent.

But that’s not the whole story: Deloitte found that nearly two-thirds of in-store

retail sales will be influenced by digital interactions this holiday season, as

consumers smarten up and conduct research on their desktops, tablets and

phones and consult shopping apps to land the best deals.

Speaking of those bargains, shopping early can pay off. According to Adobe

Digital research, online prices should hit rock bottom on Thanksgiving Day,

where consumers will snag an average discount of 27 percent. So if you are one of

the 45 percent of consumers who can sneak away in between football games and

family time to click away, you’ll be rewarded.

11/23/201 Ib Kh ld d d ’ P ki

https://about.americanexpress.com/news/pr/2015/consumers-find-steals-deals-holiday-shopping.aspxhttps://blogs.adobe.com/conversations/2015/10/retailers-rejoice-online-sales-to-hit-new-record-this-holiday-season.htmlhttp://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/press-releases/deloitte-forecast-retail-holiday-sales-to-increase-three-and-half-to-four-percent.htmlhttp://www.strategyand.pwc.com/perspectives/2015-retail-trendshttps://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf


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If shopping on Thanksgiving -- even from the privacy of your home -- doesn’t sit

well with you, try the Monday before Thanksgiving, which has been a good option

to beat the rush and still get deals. Adobe also found that the best time to buy

depends on both discounts and product availability, especially for hot-selling

gifts. In fact, this weekend is the best time to shop for toys and Monday is good

for electronics, though the entire week leading up to Thanksgiving will deliver

bargains.

And a quick word about security…after a number of data breaches at some of the

nation's top retailers, many are worried about protecting their identities from

thieves. Experts say that when shopping in a store, the safest choice is cash at the

checkout counter, but that too has risk, because who really wants to shop with

wads of cash? For convenience, credit cards are the safest option because issuers

usually provide protection against stolen, damaged or lost items. Additionally, if

credit card information is stolen or compromised, your liability is minimized,

whereas a debit card thief could drain your bank account before you notice.

Finally during this time (and always), carefully review your credit card statements

as soon as you receive them to make sure there aren’t any unauthorized charges.

If there is a discrepancy, call your bank and report it immediately. If you think

that your information has been compromised or that you have been a victim of

11/23/2015 Ib Kh ld d t d ’ P ki t


25/68



Written by

identity theft, go to the FTC website for step-by-step instructions about what you

need to do.

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26/68



How Silicon Valley Made Big City Housing TheCause of and Solution To Inequality (In 9 Visuals)

San Francisco is a living crystal ball of what happens when a city refuses to build

enough housing to accommodate the dense clustering of high-tech and service

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11/23/2015 Ibn Khaldun and today s Pakistan


workers natural to modern industries.

The median rent of a 2-bedroom apartment has skyrocketed above $3,500-a-

month and over 12,000 residents have been evicted from their homes. All the

while, the Mayor’s office has dangled pricey carrots for tech companies to keep

their headquarters in San Francisco, after the industry’s massive profits helped

residents weather the recession with an envious employment rate of 4.8% and a

2% increase in wages.

One of the technology industry’s most significant transformations of modern life

snuck up so slowly that it was hardly noticeable: the migration of jobs to big cities

and the corresponding need to transform suburban neighborhoods into high-rise

metropolises.

Indeed, a 26-year-old MIT economist recently turned heads with analysis

showing that almost all income inequality growth over the last half-century can

be blamed on the rising share of wages spent on housing (climbing an astounding

20% in 15 years, from 25% to 30% of income).


http://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-rents-outpace-wages-in-wide-swaths-of-the-u-s-1438117026https://medium.com/the-ferenstein-wire/a-26-year-old-mit-graduate-is-turning-heads-over-his-theory-that-income-inequality-is-actually-2a3b423e0chttp://nation.time.com/2014/02/28/twitter-tax-break-san-francisco/https://www.zumper.com/blog/2015/10/zumper-national-rent-report-october-2015/


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Source: Brookings Institute

Of course, not every city suffers from high-tech growth. Berkeley Economist

Enrico Moretti credits Seattle for blunting the forces of inequality by supporting

their tech hub with a surge in new apartments.



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(Data here )

To be sure, this trend isn’t new. For 5000 years of recorded history , cities have

formed precisely to accommodate densely clustered high skilled labor pools that

thrive on innovative ideas, from the merchants of ancient Athens to the printing

industry of the Renaissance in Paris.

Many of the most advanced capitals in each epoch of human history likewise had

to invent new ways to house the flood of citizens seeking employment. Rome’s

famous multi-story insula apartments are not so dissimilar to modern condos.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insula_%28building%29http://www.researchgate.net/publication/273610578_The_Origin_and_Growth_of_Urbanization_in_the_Worldhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TNHo1oEY-KVFZ745FdPJp6cVvK3yvIUOznvH3Qagd_Y/edit?usp=sharing


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Source: Wikipedia

Now that the technology industry is a dominant economic force; dense cities have

become both a major cause of and a solution to growing inequality. Density is

popping up all over the world, often in unwelcome places. Suburban enclaves,



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y


blindsided by tech booms have resisted transforming their quaint neighborhoods

into big cities.



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y




34/68


But, Austin, Denver, and Brooklyn’s older suburban counterpart, San Francisco

may show that the twin forces of economic equality and density are too difficult to

resist.

No city has experienced the rollercoaster highs of tech wealth and lows of housing

scarcity like San Francisco. As the city reaches a breaking point, it is seeking

radical measures to allow more housing.

To simulate how suburbs around the country may eventually acquiesce to city life,

I attained the first economic and visual simulation of how many apartment buildings San Francisco might need to construct in order to be affordable to

median income households*.

“A 1% increase in housing stock results in a 10% reduction in price, all else being

equal,” concludes Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at the influential financial



35/68


institution, Moody’s (parent company of the rating group). He estimates that the

entire Bay Area may need to at least 130,000 more units in order to both remain

affordable and house all of the tech jobs.

After constructing a simulation based on this model, I asked long-time San

Francisco residents a simple question: would they rather San Francisco be a

Manhattan-like city with affordable rents or should Silicon Valley house their

employees elsewhere and build their own city somewhere far away.

Reactions of the long-time San Francisco residents to these images (below) tell a

story of those who have lived through the benefits of a tech boom and worry what

might happen if tech money leaves the city.



36/68


Credit: Alfred Twu

Here’s what the famous Mission neighborhood will look like at street-level view.



37/68


lfred Twu



38/68


“I like tall San Francisco with a mix of socioeconomic classes… it’s healthy for

everyone; we don’t want ghetto areas.” ~ San Franciscan of 15 years, Mission

District resident, Colombian migrant.

One of the most comprehensive studies ever done on inequality and economicmobility found out that suburban sprawl is a key factor in financial disparity.

Harvard’s Raj Chetty and his team discovered that the average child growing up

in San Francisco will make $1,760 more as adult than if they lived in the nearby

commuting zone of Alameda County.

Even with sky-high inequality, San Francisco boasts of the nation’s highest social

mobility for children born into the poorest income bracket. When the rich and the

poor use the same schools, police, hospitals and streets, ghettos are held at bay.


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/03/upshot/the-best-and-worst-places-to-grow-up-how-your-area-compares.html?_r=0


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40/68


Rich Residents Make For High Employment And Wages

“I love the changes. Why? More people… more business.” says a Hispanic

resident, who has been selling clothes on the streets of the Mission District for 20

years. She estimates that tech migration has boosted profits by 20%. “Of course,

taller buildings.”

Cities may seem expensive, but suburban areas are far more costly. Eschewing the

ob opportunities of a city means giving up between 10–40% of one’s income.

Economists find that housing prices drop proportionately with wages, the farther

one lives from a large metro. Since the average American spends about 30% of

his/her income on rent, an apartment in rural Wisconsin could cost hundreds (or

thousands) of dollars more when factoring in wages.



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“Our analysis suggests that the tech sector is responsible for the vast majority of

the economic growth in San Francisco since 2010,” said San Francisco’s Chief

Economist, Ted Egan. “In 2010–2012, the latest year we have complete data; local

inflation has been 2.6%, while the wages for all workers have increased by 4.5%.”

Why? Berkeley Economist Enrico Moretti finds that Silicon Valley employment is

an economic super-multiplier: every tech employee creates 5 new jobs in the area

(compared to manufacturing industries which only create two). Tech industries

not only cluster high skill workers, but the legal and service workers that keep

their employees coding all night long.

The alternative (California’s current solution) is commuting, as tech companies

and their tens of thousands of employees are scattered throughout the peninsula,

forced to find shelter anywhere they can.



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The Bay Area suffers from one of the worst commutes in the country. For

decades, Silicon Valley’s suburbs have refused to accommodate high-rise

apartments for tech workers and their massive campuses, which have slowly been

pushed up north, from San Jose to San Francisco.


https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1314&dat=19840716&id=XlhWAAAAIBAJ&sjid=--4DAAAAIBAJ&pg=6574,70793&hl=en


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It is difficult to overstate the nasty impacts of commuting on the mind, body, and

family: residents with over an hour of commuting suffer dramatic drops in sleep,

exercise, and relationships.


http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2011/05/your_commute_is_killing_you.html


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Commuting hurts the poor and minorities most, who have been pushed away

from jobs as the rate tripled the national average [PDF]. In California, one

Stanford dining employee describes waking up at 3am for his 80 mile to commute

each day.


http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2015/03/24-job-proximity/srvy_jobsproximity.pdf


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Both California and the Obama administration have come under fire for policies

that punish restrictive suburban zoning as a solution to racial and economic

inequality.

“It’s time the federal government stopped encouraging sprawl… we learned from

the housing crisis that home ownership is not for everyone,” said Former Housing

and Urban Development Secretary, Shaun Donovan, whose administration

supported the controversial Bay Area plan, which called for upwards of 68% of

new development to be condo-style density.


“C lif i D l W O S b bi ” W ll S J l H dli B

http://planbayarea.org/regional-initiatives/Bay-Area-Prosperity-Plan.htmlhttp://www.fastcompany.com/1650533/hud-announces-end-urban-sprawl-we-know-it-new-urbanists-feel-finehttp://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303302504577323353434618474


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“California Declares War On Suburbia,” went a Wall Street Journal Headline. But,

California may be charging ahead with a new, more urbanized path anyways.

“All options need to be on the table. If a taller, denser San Francisco will make the

city more affordable, then it’s time we study how to make that happen,” SaysMission District Supervisor David Campos, who has, in the past, supported some

of the most restrictive zoning laws in San Francisco history. For Campos, density

may be the only way his residents can keep their homes.

Campos may be reading the political tea leaves correctly: I ran a small zip-code

targeted public opinion poll showing simulations of a taller San Francisco to

respondents and found that a slight (statistically insignificant) majority of

residents support a Manhattan-like city landscape if it meant affordability (data

here).

As America reaches a crisis point, it portends a future where, for the sake of

equality, humanity will become a more urbanized species.

Indeed, one demi-billionaire, Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh, has spent his personal

fortune figuring out how to design a city for optimal density, allocating $350M to

transform downtown Las Vegas into a model for the world.


Cit h i th t ill l k b k b b l b ti

http://fortune.com/2012/01/23/tony-hsiehs-new-350-million-startup/https://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=tb6vhhnntuoj6&question=1&filter=&rw=1http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303302504577323353434618474


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Written by

City champions argue that we will look back on suburban sprawl as an aberration

in human history. As Harvard Economist Edward Glaeser predicts:

This post is part of a series on Silicon Valley’s political endgame from the

Ferenstein Wire. See all available chapters here. For more stories on this series

click here to be notified as soon as chapters become available.

I suspect that in the long run, the twentieth-century fling

with suburban living will look, just like the brief age of the

industrial city, more like an aberration than a trend… our

culture, our prosperity, and our freedom are all ultimately

gifts of people living, working, and thinking together—the

ultimate triumph of the city.

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ibn khaldun and today’s pakistan imran khan post

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