hypothetically coherent - liz keogh
TRANSCRIPT
Liz Keogh@lunivorehttp://lizkeogh.com
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“…a fundamental assumption……a certain level of
predictability and orderexists in the world.“
- Dave Snowden,“A Leader’s Frameworkfor Decision Making”,
Harvard Business Review
The Innovation Cycle
CommoditiesDifferentiators
Build on
Spoilers
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Cynefin
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
With thanks to
David Snowden and Cognitive Edge
sense,
categorize,
respond
sense,
analyze,
respond
probe,
sense,
respond
act,
sense,
respond
Estimating Complexity
5. Nobody has ever done it before
4. Someone outside the org has done it before (probably a competitor)
3. Someone in the company has done it before
2. Someone in the team has done it before
1. We all know how to do it.
A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…
A way of knowing it’s succeeding
A way of knowing it’s failing
A way of dampening it
A way of amplifying it
Coherence
Coherence
A realistic reasonfor thinking the probe
might have apositive impact
Can you give me an example?
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In high uncertainty…
…scenarios (and plans)provide
coherence,not
tests
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A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…
A way of knowing it’s succeedingA way of knowing it’s failing
A way of dampening itA way of amplifying it
Coherence A way of avoiding failure completely
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“That won’t work because…”
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Large Hospital : 45 babies a daySmall Hospital : 15 babies a day
Both hopsitals recordthe number of daysthey got more than 60% boys
Who recorded more days?A) The big hospitalB) the small hospitalC) both about the same (within 5%)
Correlated in Retrospectn
t
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Viagra photo by Tim Reckmann, CC SA 3.0Walkman by Esa SorjonenSpace invaders by Bago Games, CC BY 2.0Car Genie copyright AA
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With kind permission of Dr Lucy King (pictured)http://elephantsandbees.com
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