HyMeX – activity report HyMeX – activity report Véronique Ducrocq (HyMeX EC-ISC chair, Météo-France)

THORPEX – ICSC-10, 3-5 October 2012

http://www.hymex.org

Presented by Philippe Bougeault (Météo-France)

General Context• During the last two years, HYMEX has

been integrated into a wider international programme called « MISTRALS », but retained its specific objectives and organization

• MISTRALS is about sustainable development in the Med Region

• This has brought high political visibility and decent funding

General Objectives of HYMEX• Quantify the water cycle in the Med

Region, and the impact of climate change on water cycle, with due account of possible changes in deep oceanic convection in the Med

• Improve prediction of intense precip events

• Improve assessment of drought frequency and severity in the coming decades

LOP/EOP/SOP agenda

SOP2: Intense air-sea exchanges (severe winds, dense water formation) - 1 Feb- 15

March 2013

SOP1: Heavy precipitation and flash-flooding

5 Sept-6 Nov 2012

Regional climate

simulations

2012-2013 : 2 field campaigns in Northwestern Mediterranean

SOP1 is on-going…

The SOP1 domain

~ 200 instruments deployed in France, Italy and Spain

On-alert and mobile instrumentsMobile platforms

4-6 gliders ~ 15 buoys and argo-floats 1 research vessel (1 month)

1 ship of opportunity (Algiers-Marseille)

1 radar (3 sites)

and on alert 3 aircraft: - F20- RASTA radar, microphysics and dropsondes - ATR42 – WV Lidar, aerosols, turbulent fluxes - DO128 – turbulent fluxes

1 ship (air-sea fluxes, radiosounding, sweller, CTD)

15 boundary layer balloons 200 radiosoundings

The CV hydrometeorological site

The CI hydrometeorological site

Field campaign coordination The HyMeX operation coordination center (HOC) is installed in Montpellier surroundings near the French aircraft airport and the near-upstream atmospheric supersite

- Daily Morning Briefing (7/7), with l’Aquila, Palma, San Guiliano and Mahon in visioconference

- a dedicated Météo-France forecaster at the HOC

-The Météo-France SYNERGIE forecaster workstation in addition to a well-furnished field campaign website (sop.hymex.org)

Field campaign coordination The HyMeX operation coordination center (HOC) is installed in Montpellier surroundings near the French aircraft airport and the near-upstream atmospheric supersite

Live monitoring and guiding of aircraft trajectory

HOC-aircraft chat during the flight

F20ATR42

IOP8- 28 Sep.@20 UTC

The operational observations Real-time access to the surface weather stations for France, Spain and Italy in real-time as well as to the radar composite

Hourly stationsAccumulated

rainfall 12-18 UTC, 28 Sept.

(IOP8)

mm

The forecasting systems More than 25 numerical weather models, hydrological models and ocean models, Incl. a dedicated version of the Météo-France AROME NWP system over Western Mediterranean:

AROME-WMED AROME-WMED

30-h range Forecast 6-h range Forecast

Radar composite

Reflectivity@850hPa Winds@925hPaat 6 UTC, 24 Sep (IOP6)

The forecasting systems More than 25 numerical weather models, hydrological models and ocean models, Incl. two convection-permitting EPS prototypes

COSMO-EPS-2 kmAROME-EPS-2.5 km

Probability – 24h rainfall > 10 mm 26 Sep (IOP7)

DTS- HyMeX EUCOS DTS-HyMeX experiment: ECMWF and Météo-France sensitive areas computation and extra-observation requests for operational radiosoundings and AMDAR

Radiosoundings targetable at 18 UTC

« Nadine»

MSLPValid time: 29 Sep.@18UTCVerif time: 30 Sep.@18 UTC

The first IOPs 8 IOPs during the first month.

The HPE IOPs:

IOP2 (12 Sep.): Heavy Precipitation event over North-east Italy Max 24h-rainfall: 160 mm in Northeast Italy, 220 mm in Croatia

IOP6 (23-24 Sep): Heavy Precipitation over Southeastern France Max 24h-rainfall: 100 mm in Cévennes-Vivarais region

IOP7 (26 Sep): Heavy Precipitation over Southeastern France Max 24h-rainfall: 100 mm in Cévennes-Vivarais region

IOP8 (28 Sep) : Heavy Precipitation event in Spain (South and Eastern Spain) Max 24h-rainfall: 115 mm in Valencia region, 211 mm in Murcia region

10 fatalities

+ CAL/VAL IOPs : WV and aerosol Lidars, radar microphysical retrievials

Some Quicklooks

IOP2 – ATR42 flightIn North Italy

A B

FD

Some Quicklooks

IOP6 - convective line

RASTA radar reflectivity (nadir/zenith)

F20 flight inside the convective system

IOP7 - quasi-stationary MCS

Some Quicklooks

IOP6 - convective line

10-min Lightning Mapping Array data

First Highlights

Weak predictability (large uncertainties of the long-range synoptic forecasts) due to Nadine Tropical cyclone over The Atlantic Ocean

but relevance of the AROME-WMED (2.5 km) forecast up to 48 hours. This is essential as timing and detailed flight plans have to be decided at least one day in advance.

The first SOP1 month is successful with 4 HPE IOPs covering France, Italy and Spain and different types of events:

A MCS ahead of a frontal system with embedded convection: IOP2 A propagating convective line (frontal line): IOP6 A quasi-stationary MCS ahead of a front: IOP7 HPE associated with a Mediterranen depression: IOP8

IOP7 particularly well documented: atmosphere, ocean and hydrological mobile platforms were activated simultaneously.

Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention