FLOODING , AN IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN JAMAICA

HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR RAINFALL – RUNOFF RELATIONSHIPS.

Dr ARPITA MANDAL

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGY,

UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES

MONA CAMPUS, JAMAICA

HYDROLOGICAL MODEL – HEC - HMS

(Hydrologic Engineering Center- Hydrologic Modeling

Systems)

FOR RUN-OFF COMPUTATION.

OUTLINE

FLOODING IN JAMAICA, CAUSES AND DAMAGES.

HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR RUNOFF COMPUTATION.

HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER- HYDROLOGIC

MODELING SYSTEMS (HEC – HMS ) OVERVIEW AND USE.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOODING.

CASE STUDY ON THE HOPE RIVER WATERSHED.

What is Flood?

Flood is an overflow of an expanse of water that

submerges land.

It is usually due to the volume of water within a body of

water, such as a river or lake, exceeding the total capacity

of the body, and as a result some of the water flows or sits

outside of the normal perimeter of the body.

Flooding in Jamaica

Flooding is one of the important natural disasters

affecting Jamaica causing loss of life and property.

MAIN CAUSES OF FLOODING

Rainfall – high intensity rainfall associated with or

without tropical storms or hurricane.

Topography, Lithology.

CLIMATE

Jamaica has a tropical maritime (marine)

climate. Mean daily temperature ranges

from a seasonal low of 26 º C in February

to a high of 28º C in August (33 º C in

recent years).

Islandwide long term mean annual rainfall

exhibits a characteristic pattern, with the

primary maximum in October and the

secondary in May. The main dry season

lasts from December to April.

Black RiverRio Cobre

Rio Minho

Rio Bueno - White River

Milk River

Martha Brae

Morant River

Rio Grande

Hope River

Lucea River

Gut - Alligator Hole

Montego River

Great River

Wagwater River

Cabarita River

Drivers River

Yallahs River

Rio Nuevo

Swift RiverSpanish RiverPencar - Buff Bay River

Plantain Garden River

Oracabessa - Pagee River

Deans Valley RiverNew Savannah River

Legend

30YEAR ANNUAL RAINFALL (MM)

WATERSHEDS

High : 6936.85

Low : 692.645

¯

0 10 20 30 405Km

WATERSHEDS IN JAMAICA AND THE 30YR MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL

Data: Mona Geoinformatics

Ltd. UWI Mona.

TOPOGRAPHY AND HYDROSTRATIGRAPHY OF JAMAICA

DEM of Jamaica showing

the rivers.

Hydrostratigraphy of Jamaica with the

impermeable basal aquiclude (volcanics,

volcanoclastics, shales, conglomerates)

occurring in the highlands. Excess rainfall,

steep topography leads to high erosion and

downslope movement of debris during high

rain associated with flooding. Data: Water Resources

Authority, Jamaica

LOCATION OF FLOODING EVENTS AS

REPORTED FROM NEWSPAPER ARCHIVES

REPORTED FLOOD EVENTS FROM OFFICE OF DISASTER

PREPAREDNESS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

(JAMAICA)

Groundwater induced • Depression • Riverine

Storm Surge • Urban Runoff

Groundwater induced • Depression • Riverine

TYPES OF FLOODING IN JAMAICA

HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS AFFECTING

JAMAICA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1900

-191

0

1910

-192

0

1920

-193

0

1930

-194

0

1940

-195

0

1950

-196

0

1960

-197

0

1970

-198

0

1980

-199

0

1990

-200

0

2000

-201

0

Nu

mb

er

of

Tro

pic

al

Sto

rms/H

urr

ican

es

Tropical Storm

Hurricane (Hit/Pass)

Data from Metservice of

Jamaica

Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes

Data from 1857-2008, National Hurricane

Center, USA

EFFECTS OF FLOODING IN DIFFERENT SECTIONS

OF JAMAICA (NEWSPAPER AND INTENET ARCHIVES)

Flooding in Port Maria,

Nov 23-24th , 2006 >

Cold Front.

Flooding in Hope River Watershed-

Tavern, Kingston > August 28, 2008.

Tropical Storm Gustav

Flooding in Gordon Town, Kingston >

August 28, 2008. Tropical Storm

Gustav

Gordon Town, August

28, 2008. Tropical

Storm Gustav

Kintyre, Kingston

September, 2010.

Tropical Storm Nicole.

Bridge over Hope River at Harbour

View, Tropical Storm Gustav, August,

2008.

FLOODING WOES………..

BRIDGE AT KINTRYE WHICH

COLLAPSED FOLLOWING

FLOODING , 2007, 2008, 2010

NEWLY CONSTRUCTED

BRIDGE AT HARBOUR

VIEW. POST NICOLE,

2010

HOUSE RELOCATED

FOLLOWING FLOODING, 2010

RIVER TRAINING IN

HARBOUR VIEW.

PRESENT SCENARIO ….WILL IT

SUSTAIN ANOTHER FLOOD ???........

Source : Water Resources Authority of Jamaica

TO BE NOTED : NO EXISTING EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR

THE HOPE WATERSHED

WHAT IS HYDRAULIC AND

HYDROLOGIC MODELING

• HEC HMS-(Hydrologic Modeling System) is

designed to simulate precipitation- runoff

processes of dendritic water systems .

• HEC RAS- (River Analysis System) is a

hydraulic model that calculates one-dimensional

steady and unsteady flow. The inputs for this

model are the hydrograph output from HMS.

• Integration of GIS

HEC-HMS The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s

Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS)

MAIN ROLE: DEM (DIGITAL ELEVATION

MODEL)

• Surface shape determines water behaviour

– characterise surface using DEM • slope

• aspect

• (altitude)

– delineate drainage system: • catchment boundary (watershed)

• sub-catchments

• stream network

– quantify catchment variables • soil moisture, etc.

• flow times... catchment response

• Other key catchment variables: – soils

• type and association

• derived characteristics

– geology • type

• derived characteristics

– land use • vegetation cover

• management practices

– artificial drainage • storm drains/sewers/ bridges

HEC HMS – Data Structure

1

• METEROLOGICAL MODEL

• Climatological Data

2

• BASIN MODEL

• Connectivity and Element Data

3

• CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

• Simulation Duration & Time Steps

Main Components • Basin model gives the physical description of the

watershed. – Subbasin: watershed catchments where rain falls.

– Reach: rivers and streams.

– Reservoir: dams and lakes.

– Junction: confluence.

– Diversion: bifurcations and withdrawls.

– Source: springs and other model sinks.

– Sink: outlets and terminal lakes.

• Meteorologic model describes atmospheric conditions over the watershed land surface. – Precipitation.

– Potential evapotranspiration.

– Snowmelt.

• Control specifications: Time control during a simulation run

Basin Map

The Hydrologic

Cycle

1 0 0 P r e c i p i t a t i o n o n l a nd

Infiltration

Water table

Groundwater flow

1 Groundwater discharge

38 Surface discharge

61 Evaporation from land

39Moisture over land

385Precipitation

on ocean

424 Evaporationfrom ocean

Surface runoff

Impervious strata

Groundwater Recharge

Precipitation

Snow melt

Uses of the HEC Program

Models the rainfall-runoff process in a watershed

based on watershed physiographic data

– Offers a variety of modeling options in order to

compute Unit Hydrograph for basin areas.

– Offers a variety of options for flood routing along

streams.

– Capable of estimating parameters for calibration of

each basin based on comparison of computed data

to observed data

HEC-HMS Availability

Available Through HEC Vendors

Available at HEC Web Site:

http://www.wrc-hec.usace.army.mil

“Public Domain” Program

No Copyright on Software

No Copyright on HEC Documentation

Special Training Available

COMPONENTS OF HEC HMS

Three components

– Basin model - contains the elements of the

basin, their connectivity, and runoff parameters

– Meteorologic Model - contains the rainfall and

evapotranspiration data

– Control Specifications - contains the start/stop

timing and calculation intervals for the run

– Time Series data: component where the actual

rainfall , discharge data are entered in tables as

per the control specified.

HEC-HMS SCREEN SHOT WITH BASIN MODEL, MET MODEL,

CONTROL SPECIFICATION AND TIME SERIES DATA.

Watershed Abstractions

Soil properties

Precipitation (mm/hr)

Runoff (mm/hr)

Runoff = f(precipitation, soil properties, moisture conditions)

BASICS OF DRAINAGE

SYSTEM….

Watershed (Basin, Catchment,

Contributing area) Watershed Boundaries (Drainage Divides)

Pour Points (Outlets)

Basin Model Basin Model

– Based on Graphical User

Interface (GUI)

– Click on elements from left and

drag into basin area

– Can import map files from GIS

programs to use as

background

– Actual locations of elements

do not matter, just connectivity

and runoff parameters

Basin Model Elements

• subbasins- contains data for subbasins (losses, UH transform, and baseflow)

• reaches- connects elements together and contains flood routing data

• junctions- connection point between elements

• reservoirs- stores runoff and releases runoff at a specified rate (storage-discharge relation)

Basin Model Elements

• sinks- has an inflow but no outflow

• sources- has an outflow but no inflow

• diversions- diverts a specified amount of runoff

to an element based on a rating curve - used for

detention storage elements or overflows

Loss Rate methods

Green & Ampt

Initial & constant

SCS curve no.

Gridded SCS curve no.

Deficit/Constant

No loss rate

Watershed Lag-Time (SCS)

Flow length upstream and downstream

Average Curve Number

Length and slope of the longest flow-path

Identification of the longest flow-path

Lag-time

Identifying curve number for catchments using soil,

landuse data in ARC GIS

Hydrologic Parameters

t5.3,

S67.31

]9)CN/1000[(Lmaxt

5.0

7.08.0

wp

tp: sub-basin lag-time (min) LW: length of sub-basin longest flow-path (ft) CN: average Curve Number in sub-basin S: slope of the sub-basin longest flow-path (%) t: analysis time step (min)

• Sub-basin lag-time according to the SCS formula:

Calculation of Basin Lag time

s

slag

V60

Lt

tlag: reach lag-time (min) Ls: length of reach (m) Vs: reach average velocity (m/s)

• Reach lag-time for Pure Lag routing:

Baseflow

Options

– recession

– constant

monthly

– linear

reservoir

– no baseflow

Stream Flow Routing

• Simulates Movement of Flood Wave

Through Stream Reach

• Accounts for Storage and Flow

Resistance

• Allows modeling of a watershed with sub-

basins

Reach Routing

Flood routing methods:

Simple Lag

Modified Puls

Muskingum

Muskingum Cunge

Kinematic Wave

Baseflow

• Three alternative models for baseflow

Constant, monthly-varying flow

Linear-reservoir volume accounting model

Exponential recession model

Baseflow

• Exponential recession model

Defines relationship of Qt (baseflow at time t) to an initial value of baseflow (Q0) as:

Qt = Q0Kt

K is an exponential decay constant

Defined as ratio of baseflow at time t to baseflow one day earlier

Q0 is the average flow before a storm begins

Baseflow

• Exponential recession model

Baseflow

• Exponential recession model

– Typical values of K

• 0.95 for Groundwater

• 0.8 – 0.9 for Interflow

• 0.3 – 0.8 for Surface Runoff

– Can also be estimated from gaged flow data

Meteorologic Model

Meteorologic Model

Precipitation

user hyetograph

user gage weighting

inverse-distance gage

weighting

gridded precipitation

frequency storm

standard project storm -

Eastern U.S.

Evapotranspiration-ET monthly average,

no evapotranspiration

Precipitation

Historical Rainfall Data

Recording Gages

Non-Recording Rainfall Gages

Design Storms

Hypothetical Frequency Storms

Corps Standard Project Storm

Probable Maximum Precipitation

Gage Data Gage Data (from project definition screen)

Precipitation gages-

precipitation data for

use with meteorologic

models

Stream gages- observed

level data to compare

computed and actual

results

Control Specifications

Control Specifications - Start/Stop/Time Interval

Running a project

User selects the

1. Basin model

2. Meteorologic

model

3. Control ID for the

HMS run

Viewing Results

– To view the results: right-click on any basin element, results will be for that point

– Display of results:

• hydrograph- graphs outflow vs. time

• summary table- gives the peak flow and time of peak

• time-series table- tabular form of outflow vs. time

– Comparing computed and actual results: plot observed data on the same hydrograph to by selecting a discharge gage for an element

Viewing Results

hydrograph

HEC-HMS Output

1. Tables

Summary

Detailed (Time Series)

2. Hyetograph Plots

3. Sub-Basin Hydrograph Plots

4. Routed Hydrograph Plots

5. Combined Hydrograph Plots

6. Recorded Hydrographs - comparison

Viewing Results

Summary table

Time series table

HEC-HMS Output Sub-Basin Plots

Runoff Hydrograph

Hyetograph

Abstractions

Base Flow

HEC-HMS Output

Junction Plots

Tributary Hydrographs

Combined Hydrograph

Recorded Hydrograph

Purpose of

Calibration

Can Compute Sub-Basin Parameters

Loss Function Parameters

Unit Hydrograph Parameters

Can Compute Stream Flow Routing

Parameters

Requires Gage Records

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN –

JAMAICA.

• World’s industrial powers (OECD) account for 20% world’s population, but are responsible for >50 % of global emissions – the cause of global warming and resultant climate change.

• Developing countries emit < 25 % of total GHG emissions.

• Small Island States (SIDS) emit < 1% of global emissions.

• SIDS have contributed little to the problem but are among the most vulnerable groups to GCC, and have low adaptive capacity. – Hence adaptation rather than mitigation is most

appropriate course

CHANGE IN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE…SEA LEVEL RISE

Global temperatures have

increased by about 0.74˚C

(0.56˚C to 0.92˚C) since the

19th century (IPCC, 2007).

Temperature changes simulated

across the Caribbean by Angeles et

al., 2006

Observed and baseline (NCEP) temperatures and temperature

scenarios at Worthy Park in Jamaica for present (1961-90), 2020s,

2050s and 2080s time slices, obtained by SDSM using HadCM3 with

A2 emission scenario. Corresponding results for the Caribbean

region given by HadCM3 and ECHAM4 are also shown.(Chen et al.

2008)

CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION…

Precipitation changes over the Caribbean from the MMD-A1B simulations. Top row:

Annual mean, DJF and JJA fractional precipitation change between 1980 to 1999

and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models. Bottom row: number of models out of

21 that project increases in precipitation (From Christensen et al., 2007).

Effects of increase in temperature … on small island states.

Increase in frequency of hurricanes.

INCREASED IN FREQUENCY OF HURRICANES AND TROPICAL

STORMS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FLOODING….

Increase in flooding due to high intensity rains from hurricanes and

storms will affect the coastal areas of Jamaica.. Ocho Rios, Port Maria,

parishes of St. Thomas , Kingston and Portland.

Major damages have been done by tropical storm Gustav and Nicole in

Portland, St. Thomas , Kingston and St. Andrew.

Flooding along coastal areas affects tourism as well as the

transportation to the major airports.

HOPE RIVER WATERSHED-CASE STUDY

The Hope River supplies water to Kingston and flows through the eastern section

of the city and has been responsible for high levels of damage in the past.

Damage is usually caused by fast-flowing torrents carrying debris of varying size.

The Hope River Watershed had repeated occurrences of flooding and associated

debris flows resulting from heavy rains associated with Tropical storms and

hurricanes.

Damages have resulted in collapse of bridges (at Kintyre and Harbour view and

houses along the flood plain from hurricane Gustav (2008), tropical storm Nicole

(2010). These are some of the recent damages.

Aims of the study on Hope River Watershed

Assessment of damages done by flooding.

Study on rainfall return periods and rainfall pattern for the watershed.

Analysis of the flood return periods.

Analysis of long term (1955-2010) discharge data from the Hope River.

Flood plain maps for the watershed and highlighting vulnerable zones.

ELEVATION, LANDUSE AND SOIL TYPE OF THE WATERSHED

Elevation Map created from DEM of 6m horizontal and 1m vertical resolution. Note the buildings are

located in the floodplains of the river and in the areas of low elevation. High elevation in the upper

watersheds coupled with impermeable rocks results in less infiltration. Hence high run off and

flooding in the downstream areas. Soil data shows buildings located in zones with moderate high

runoff ie C.

Return Periods for Maximum 24hr rainfall for the watershed .

(Data 1937-1985, Metservice of Jamaica )

100yr return period

rainfall contours

(mm)

25yr return period

rainfall contours

(mm)

50yr return period

rainfall contours

(mm)

IRISH TOWN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

YEARS(1992-2011)

MA

X 2

4 H

R R

AIN

FA

LL

IN

EA

CH

MO

NT

H

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Hurricane Ivan,

365mm

Hurricane Dean,

229mm

Tropical Storm

Gustav,113mm

Tropical Storm Nicole,

293mm

Surface Trough

229mm

Hurricane Lili,

JACKS HILL

0

50

100

150

200

250

1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

YEARS

MA

X 2

4 H

R R

AIN

FA

LL

IN

EA

CH

MO

NT

H

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Tropical Storm

Nicole, 217mm

Tropical Storm

Gustav, 185mm

Low Pressure Trough

150mm

Hurricane Lili, 160mm

Surface Trough, 122mm

MAXIMUM RAINFALL FOR SOME STATIONS OF THE HOPE WATERSHED AND

ASSOCIATED TROPICAL STORMS, HURRICANES AND TROUGHS.

NEWCASTLE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1992

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

RA

INF

AL

L (

MM

)

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

GUSTAV, 274MMNICOLE, 270MM

COLD FRONT, LOW PRESSURE TROUGH

Maximum Daily Discharge(1991-2000)

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1000.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Dis

ch

arg

e (

cfs

)

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

SURFACE TROUGH

FRONTAL SYSTEM,TROUGH

FRONTAL SYSTEM TROPICAL WAVE,

Maximum Daily Discharge (2001-2010)

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

4000.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Dis

ch

arg

e (

cfs

)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

IVAN

NICOLE

GUSTAVSURFACE TROUGH

MAXIMUM PEAK DISCHARGES FOR THE HOPE RIVER MEASURED AT THE

HOPE DISCHARGE STATION AT GROVE AND ASSOCIATED CAUSES.

DISCHARGE VS RETURN PERIOD

R2 = 0.9998

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

0 20 40 60 80 100 120RETURN PERIOD

DIS

CH

AR

GE

(CF

S)

Return Period Flow(cfs)

5 4495.73

10 6219.23

25 8382.22

50 9990.82

100 11599.65

PEAK FLOOD DISCHARGES AND LONG TERM MAXIMUM DISCHARGE FROM

HOPE DISCHARGE STATION. RETURN PERIOD OF FLOOD PEAK FLOWS USING

GUMBEL METHOD (MOMENT OF MEANS)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Dis

ch

arg

e(c

fs)

Years

Instantaneous Peaks

IVAN

GUSTAVTropical Storm unnamed

Hurricane Flora

NICOLE

Catchments, flowlengths, curve

number for the watershed created

in GEOHMS

Basin model with junctions, sub-basins,

reaches and outlets as in HEC-HMS

Outlet

HEC HMS was run with 2 meteorological model

5 minute rainfall intensity data for Tropical Storm Nicole measured at

the Hope discharge station

5 minute rainfall intensity data from raingauge at Hope discharge

station for the month of June 2011.

The SCS loss method and basin lag were used as other input data.

Basin lag was determined using SCS formula:

TL =L^0.8(SCN+1)^0.7/1900*Y^0.5 where, L= length of the longest

flowpath, SCN = (1000/CN -10) , Y = Slope .

Model calibrated with observed discharge data from hope discharge

station.

SIMULATION OF THE RAINFALL – RUNOFF MODEL IN HEC HMS

AND CALIBRATION WITH OBSERVED DISCHARGE DATA

RESULTS FROM HEC HMS

5 MINUTE INTENSITY RAINFALL DATA FOR TROPICAL STORM NICOLE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0:00

2:05

4:10

6:15

8:20

10:2

5

12:3

0

14:3

5

16:4

0

18:4

5

20:5

0

22:5

51:

003:

055:

107:

159:

20

11:2

5

13:3

0

15:3

5

17:4

0

19:4

5

21:5

0

23:5

52:

004:

056:

108:

15

10:2

0

12:2

5

14:3

0

16:3

5

18:4

0

20:4

5

22:5

0

TIME (MINS) FROM 28-30 SEPT 2010

RA

INF

AL

L (

MM

)

Peak rainfall =13.2MM AT 3:40

AM , 29TH SEPT

00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00

28Sep2010 29Sep2010 30Sep2010

Flo

w (

cm

s)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Sink "Outlet62" Results for Run "NICOLE_Muskingum"

Run:NICOLE_MUSKINGUM Element:OUTLET62 Result:Observed Flow

Run:NICOLE_MUSKINGUM Element:OUTLET62 Result:Outflow

Run:NICOLE_Muskingum Element:R1690 Result:Outflow

Run:NICOLE_Muskingum Element:R1680 Result:Outflow

Run:NICOLE_Muskingum Element:W1130 Result:Outflow

Simulated peak discharges

at junction of flow nodes at

the fording at Kintyre.

Simulated discharge at

the junction of flow

nodes immediate

upstream (~ 330m)

north of fording at

Elleston Flats.

00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00

28Sep2010 29Sep2010 30Sep2010

Flo

w (

cms)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Junction "J368" Results for Run "NICOLE"

Run:NICOLE Element:J368 Result:Outflow Run:NICOLE Element:W4600 Result:Outflow Run:NICOLE Element:R1770 Result:Outflow

Run:NICOLE Element:W1280 Result:Outflow

00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00

28Sep2010 29Sep2010 30Sep2010

Flo

w (

cm

s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Junction "J428" Results for Run "NICOLE"

Run:NICOLE Element:J428 Result:Outflow Run:NICOLE Element:R1750 Result:Outflow

29TH SEPT, 6:45AM,

75CUMECS

30TH SEPT ,

1:30AM,

54CUMECS

29TH SEPT, 6:38AM,

24CUMECS 30TH SEPT ,

1:25AM,

18CUMECS

Simulated vs observed hydrograph for

the hope discharge station at grove

which is marked as outlet 62 in the hec

hms model. This is the outlet of flow

from the sub-basins of the upper part

of the watershed.

00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00

28Sep2010 29Sep2010 30Sep2010

Flo

w (

cms)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Junction "J416" Resul ts for Run "NICOLE"

Run:NICOLE Element:J416 Result:Outflow Run:NICOLE Element:W1430 Result:Outflow

Run:NICOLE Element:R1920 Result:Outflow

Simulated discharge at the junction

node near the mouth of the river at

harbour view.

29TH SEPT ,

7:35AM,

52CUMECS

30TH SEPT ,

2:10AM,

42CUMECS

Population of the Hope River watershed.

The vulnerable areas i.e., Kintyre, Elleston

Flats/August Town which are in the high

peak flow zone have a population of 1609,

1176, 2532 respectively. Population of

Harbour View ranging from 8412-17810.

Outlet 62 = peak of 173CFS(Nicole).

Outlet

62

Buildings within a distance of 200m from

the river for two of the vulnerable

communities. Approx range of value for

houses left of Kintyre ~ 450000 to

550000

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

World Bank For Funding The Research Work

Institute of Sustainable Development, UWI Mona.

Water Resources Authority, Jamaica.

Office of Disaster Preparedness, Jamaica.

Mona Geoinformatics Ltd, UWI Mona.

National Land Agency, Jamaica.

Dept of Geography and Geology, UWI Mona, Jamaica.

Dept of Physics, UWI Mona, Jamaica.

University of the French West Indies in Guadeloupe.