hvdc transmission lines market, technology and geographical trends 2016 presentation by mattin grao...
TRANSCRIPT
HVDC Transmission lines –Market, Technology and Geographical
Trends
2
PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION
• Yole Group
• Introduction
• Technical trend & Challenges
• Market Analysis and Forecast
• Conclusion
3
MEMS &
Sensors
LED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced Packaging
Batteries / Energy
Management
Power
Electronics
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Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
5
SERVING MULTIPLE INDUSTRIAL FIELDS
• We are workingaccrossmultiples industries to understandthe impact of More-than-Moore technologies fromdevice to system
From A to Z…
Transportation
makers
Mobile phone
and consumer
electronics
Automotive
Medical
systemsIndustrial and
defense
Energy
6
INTRODUCTION
• At the end of the XIX. century, the competitionbetween AC & DC was won by the first one thanksto transformers technology available at that time.
• Transformers enable to increase the AC voltagein an easy way.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
7
POWER ELECTRONICS IN POWER TRANSMISSION
• The development of power electronics devices openednew opportunities on the power transmission lines.
Power electronics devices enabled the power conversion from AC to DC
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
Mercury-arc valves
1970’s 2000’s
Thyristors (GTO,
IGCT, etc.)
1930’s
IGBTs
8
HVDC ADVANTAGES
• HVDC lines :
• Interconnection between different frequency power networks.
• Lower losses through long distances (>600-800 km).
• Best economic solution for submarine cables >80 km.
• Instant and precise control of the power flow (mostly when IGBTs are used).
• Lower visual impact and less space requirements for DC towers compared to AC towers.
• Grid access for renewable resources.
• HVDC has lower losses than AC, but DC converter stations are more expensive than AC stations.
• The initial investment is much higher for the HVDC line, but in operation it is a better economic solution for very long distancepower transmission.
• Recently, power electronics converters have also made their apparition in AC power transmission lines in order to bringstability & power flow control on the grid:
• FACTS: Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
400 MW submarine HVDC line in San Francisco’s bay
9
HVDC TECHNOLOGY
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
• Line Commutated Converters (LCC) - (launched in the 70’s) :
• Power up to 8 GW
• Based on Thyristor devices
• Voltage Source Converters (VSC) - (launched in the end 90’s)
• Power up to 1 GW
• Based on IGBT devices
• Control of the reactive power -> more manageable grids.
• It is expected that VSC will take over a large portion of theHVDC market in the future.
HVDC stands for High Voltage Direct Current.
It specifies a system used for transmitting or exchanging electrical power by means of direct current.
10
TECHNICAL TRENDS IN HVDC
How the technological choice is evolving
• The use of this technology is mostly driving by the European market and their off-shore renewablesconnection to the grid.
There is a clear trend towards VSC-HVDCs (IGBT based) due to their total control of the reactive power and thereby, the manageability of the grids.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
* % of cumulative HVDC line units
Market share of VSC, over all HVDC lines installed
worldwide*
11
LCC
Line Commuted Converters – Thyristor based technology
• The next technological challenge in a LCC should come fromthe passive components.
• The filters are too bulky.
• Any technological improvement in terms of volume densityin capacitors would have a considerable impact.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
• Still, the thyristor based converters (LCC) will be the most used technology in the future HVDC lines.
• Maturity
• Excellent efficiency (~99%)
• Installation costs
• No major technical changes are going to happen.
The twelve-pulse bridge topology
Twelve-pulse bridge
12
VSC
Voltage Source Converters – IGBT based technology
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
• The VSC has still several challenges to overcome.
• Conversion efficiency -> New topologies
• Power devices for high-voltage -> SiC transistors
• Cost reduction
• The simplest topology for a VSC is a half-bridge converter, with hundreds of IGBT in series to make a valve.
• High commutation switches -> low efficiency (~96%)
• Lots of harmonics
A half-bridge topology using IGBT valvesSource: ALSTOM
13
VSC
Alternative architectures
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
• The actual trend is to use Multi-Modular Converters.
• More manageable and more efficient.
Multi level converter using chain link modulesSource: ALSTOM
LCC losses 0.7%
VSC standard losses 2-3%
VSC MMC losses 1%
14
VSC
Alternative architectures
• Transformers are a big source of losses and very bulky.
The Dual-Active-Bridge topology is being studied as a future alternative by SuperGrid
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
• Cascade connection
• Not a large transformer at the AC side.
• It uses a medium frequency transformer (10-20 kHz), • A ZVS* is used in order to minimize commutation losses
Solid State Transformer
* ZVS: Zero Voltage Switch
Several DABs
in cascade
DAB topology
15
HIGH POWER DEVICES
Silicon Carbide devices
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
• In the same direction, developments are done for WBG devices.
• 10kV SiC BJTs are being developed
• Limited commutation losses
• Higher breakdown voltage
• Better thermal conductivity
• SiC MOSFETs present the drawback of their oxide reliability in very high voltages (> 6kV).
And others..
• When it comes to a high power transmission installations (>2-3 GW) thyristors are always used as the IGBTs havecertain limits.
• The robustness and the voltage/current tolerance is larger for thyristors.
• The minimized losses is also essential when it comes to a high power transmission line
16
VSC
Summary of on-going developments
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
Solid state transformers
System volume
Greater efficiency
Multi-Modular Converters -
Chain link modules
Greater efficiency
SiC
High-power
devices
SS-Transformer
Passive
components
17
HVDC INSTALLATIONS WORLDWIDE
2010-2015 in GW capacity
©2015 | www.yole.fr |
• China is leading by far the HVDC lines
installations:
• 2010-2015: 95 GW
• India has planned several
HVDC projects for the
next years
• 2010-2015: 6 GW
• In Europe several
important projects have
been carried out:
• 2010-2015: 16 GW
• USA and Canada have
launched several HVDC
projects:
• 2010-2015: 3.5 GW
• Brazil has constructed the
longest HVDC line in the
world with 2375 km
• 2013: 7.1 GW
18
HVDC CAPACITY IN CHINA
• China is constructing HVDC lines with huge power capacities due to their incremental needs in power on their actual networks.
• Before 2012, their HVDC transmission lines had a capacity of 2GW–3GW.
• From 2013 on, China is installing 6.4 GW and even 8GW HVDC lines.
• For the period between 2010–2015, China has an accumulative installed HVDC capacity of 95GW.
• It represents 67% of worldwide capacity of installed HVDC lines.
China is creating its future super-grid network for energy compensation between regions.
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Chinese Power Electronics
industry
19
GEOGRAPHICAL TRENDS
Main drivers
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
China is constructing HVDC lines with
huge power capacities
• Due to their incremental needs in power on
their actual networks.
• From the north-west to the south-east
India also builds HVDC lines with
large power capacities, due to their
incremental needs in power & transfer
between regions.
• In Europe, main drivers are:
• Integration of renewable energies
• Interconnection between different grids
• Submarine cables
USA and Canada both
renewables’ integration and
power transfers between regions
are boosting the HVDC projects.
Brazil has constructed the
longest HVDC line in the
world with 2375 km
• 2013: 7.1 GW
LCC technology
6 – 8 GW
VSC / LCC
technology
0.5 - 1GW
LCC technology
2 – 3 GW
Lines capacities on
the range of
0.5-1GW
for the coming
projects 3.5 GW
(even 7.2 GW).
Hydropower
CoalWind power
UHVDC: 800kV – 1100kV
20
HVDC INSTALLATIONS WORLDWIDE
2016-2020 forecast
©2015 | www.yole.fr |
• China is leading by far the HVDC lines
installations:
• 2010-2015: 95 GW
• 2016-2020: 90 GW
• India has planned several
HVDC projects for the
next years
• 2010-2015: 6 GW
• 2016-2020: 10 GW
• In Europe several
important projects have
been carried out:
• 2010-2015: 16 GW
• 2016-2020: 12 GW
• USA and Canada have
launched several HVDC
projects:
• 2010-2015: 3.5 GW
• 2016-2020: 15 GW
• Brazil has constructed the
longest HVDC line in the
world with 2375 km
• 2013: 7.1 GW
21
MARKET FORECAST
2010-2020
• There are important fluctuations in the installed GW, depending on the number of projects to come to the end each year.
• During the next 5 years almost 200 GW HVDC capacity will be installed worldwide.
• Estimation of 40 GW – 50 GW transmission capacity per year.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
22
SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET IN HVDC
• Yole estimates that the semiconductormarket for HVDC in 2014 reached$36.5M.
• While in 2015 it almost doubled:$61.75M.
• For the next 5 years, this market shouldincrease to an average of $60M-$65M.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
• 2015 has been an extraordinary year for IGBTbased HVDC lines.
• >$35M only for IGBT modules.
• +280% from 2014 for IGBT market in HVDC.
• European wind offshore farm connection
24
CONCLUSION
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
• In the coming years, new HVDC projects should be built, mainly in North America and in
emerging economies, such as Brazil and India.• As well as, in the Chinese vast expansion project.
• R&D investments will focus on the development of the transistor-based VSC technology.
• Enough reasons to encourage tier I (power converter) and tier II (power module, capacitors,
cooling systems, etc.) power electronic components suppliers to be involved in this expanding
market!!
25
FOR ANY QUESTION
©2016 | www.yole.fr | HVDC
Mattin GRAO TXAPARTEGI
Mattin Grao Txapartegi is a Power Electronics Analyst at Yole Développement. He graduated from Grenoble INP with anEngineering degree in Electrical Systems, followed by a specialization in embedded systems for transportation. He then earned anadvanced master’s degree in Aeronautics Engineering from Arts et Métiers ParisTech. During this time, he oversaw managerial,financial, and marketing fields within the aeronautics industry.
Mail: [email protected]
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