hurricanes - ghbahurricane charlie august 2004 6.609 million aug 2003- july 2004 7.027 million +6.3%...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Hurricanes
![Page 3: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Immediate Impact • Loss of Jobs • Declining Home Sales
6-12 Months Later • Strong Job
Growth • Rising Home Sales
Disaster Economic Impact
![Page 4: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
400
450
500
550
600
650
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
New Orleans MSA Employment
Thousands – Seasonally Adjusted
Hurricane Katrina
![Page 5: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
35
38
40
43
45
48
50
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Punta Gorda MSA Employment
Thousands – Seasonally Adjusted
Hurricane Charlie
![Page 6: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
SW Florida Job Growth Rates
0.00%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Recession U.S. Punta Gorda
Recession Hurricane
Charlie
Percent Change Year-Over-Year
Seasonally-Adjusted
![Page 7: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Cape Coral-Ft Myers MSA Home Sales
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,600
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Closings Per Months Hurricane Charlie August 2004
12,281 Aug 2003- July 2004
13,646 +11.1% Sep 2004- Aug 2005
+11.1%
![Page 8: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
U.S. Existing Home Sales
0
200
400
600
800
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06
Closings Per Months Thousands
Hurricane Charlie August 2004
6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004
7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005
+6.3%
![Page 9: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
220,000
1st
Time
Applicants
Unemployment
Benefits
Week Ending
January 13
2018
![Page 10: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
1.89
Million
Total People
on
Unemployment
Benefits
Week Ending
October 14
2017
![Page 11: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
90% of workers should
see an increase when new guidelines are
implemented
January 16, 2018
![Page 12: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
13.6%
Percent of
U.S.
Population
Aged 25-34
![Page 13: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
30% Percent of
Homebuyers
Prior Year
Aged 25-34
![Page 14: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 47% Have an Easy Job Working for Someone Else 53% Work for Yourself But Work Incredibly Hard
9GAG + GfK Research
![Page 15: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 29% Commit to a Guaranteed Job for Next 3 Years 71% Commit to a Start-Up Opportunity
9GAG + GfK Research
![Page 16: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 95% Gain 10 Friends in Real Life 5% Gain 10,000 Friends on Instagram-Twitter
9GAG + GfK Research
![Page 17: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 33% Lose the Right to Vote 67% Lose the Right to Say Anything on Social Media
9GAG + GfK Research
![Page 18: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 43% Give Up Sex 57% Give Up the Internet
9GAG + GfK Research
![Page 19: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Atlanta Austin Boston Chicago Columbus Dallas Denver
Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Montgomery County, Maryland
Nashville Newark New York City Northern Virginia Philadelphia Pittsburgh
Raleigh Toronto Washington, D.C.
Amazon’s 2nd Headquarters Finalists
![Page 20: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Airports Concessions
Housing Mass Transit Office Space Population
Flooding
Amazon’s Want And
Needs List
Do-Not-Want
![Page 21: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA Jobs
Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted
1.51 Percent Prior 12 Months 45,500 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months
27,500 Jobs Lost in August-September
![Page 22: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Loan Cap 750,000$
20 Percent Down 187,500$
Purchase Price 937,500$
2017 SFR Sales 69,464
$937,500+ 1,913
Percent Impacted 2.75%
Mortgage Interest Deduction Cap Impact - Houston
![Page 23: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Houston MSA Home Sales & Median Prices Sales Trailing 12 Months
$175
$200
$225
$250
14 '15 '16 '17 '18
78,000
79,000
80,000
81,000
82,000
83,000
84,000
Median Price Homes Sales
Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months
![Page 24: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
2.6%
Average
Number
Per
Month
Sales
Change
Y-O-Y
![Page 25: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
3.7% 12-Month
Moving
Average
Price
Increase
Y-O-Y
![Page 26: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
'16 to '17
Percent
Price Range 2014 2015 2016 2017 Change
$1 to $499,999 60,763 59,206 61,211 62,502 2.1%
$500,000 to $699,999 3,703 3,724 3,624 3,713 2.5%
$700,000 to $999,999 1,804 1,756 1,619 1,748 8.0%
$1 Million and Up 1,383 1,418 1,352 1,501 11.0%
Total 67,653 66,104 67,806 69,464 2.4%
Ft Bend-Galveston-Harris-Montgomery Counties
Single Family Sales
![Page 27: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
'16 to '17
Percent
Price Range 2014 2015 2016 2017 Change
$1 to $499,999 6,408 6,361 6,268 6,174 -1.5%
$500,000 to $699,999 279 257 211 256 21.3%
$700,000 to $999,999 71 61 63 63 0.0%
$1 Million and Up 20 13 12 13 8.3%
Total 6,778 6,692 6,554 6,506 -0.7%
Ft Bend-Galveston-Harris-Montgomery Counties
Townhouse-Condo Sales
![Page 28: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Houston MSA Residential Building Permits
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
Single Family Multi
Number of Dwelling Units
42,673 Permits is the past 12 months, 45,500 Net New Jobs 1.07 New Jobs Per New Dwelling Unit – 1.25 to 1.5 is Normal
![Page 29: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
-6.7 Percent Year-Over-Year
![Page 30: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
$0.0
$2.5
$5.0
$7.5
$10.0
$12.5
$15.0
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Houston Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
+46.0 Percent YOY
![Page 31: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Quarterly
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
-12.7 Percent Q4 2017 vs Q4 2016
![Page 32: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Houston Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Quarterly
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
+29.0 Percent Q4 2017 vs Q4 2016
![Page 33: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Days to Drill & Fracture
3 Years Ago -- 40 Days
Now – 19 Days
![Page 34: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,5004-
Jan-
02
6-D
ec-0
2
7-N
ov-0
3
8-O
ct-0
4
9-S
ep-0
5
11-A
ug-0
6
13-J
ul-0
7
13-J
un-0
8
15-M
ay-0
9
16-A
pr-1
0
18-M
ar-1
1
17-F
eb-1
2
18-J
an-1
3
20-D
ec-1
3
21-N
ov-1
4
23-O
ct-1
5
23-S
ep-1
6
25-A
ug-1
7
North American Drilling Rig Counts Number of Operating Rigs
![Page 35: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
DrTCJ
![Page 37: Hurricanes - GHBAHurricane Charlie August 2004 6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004 7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005 +6.3% . 220,000 1st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052105/60409aa90a2dc577e27bb936/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)