Hurricane Ike Review/Outlook for 2010Looking Back at Ike

Dan Reilly

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

Outline

• Hurricane History/Climatology

• Outlook for 2010 Season

• Changes for 2010 to NWS Products

Oil Spill Update:

May 21st, 2010

http://response.restoration.noaa.gov

June 1st, 2010

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/?n=embriefing

Loop Current

Tropical Cyclone HazardsTropical Cyclone Hazards

Storm SurgeStorm Surge TornadoesTornadoes

FloodingFloodingDamaging WindsDamaging Winds

Hurricane Threats

Maximum storm surge

and wind occur in right

forward quadrant, near where

center crosses the

coast

Radar loop for Ike

Early Rise Trapped some on Bolivar, Galveston Island

Hurricane Ike: Hurricane Ike: Bolivar Peninsula Bolivar Peninsula DevastationDevastation

Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/

Tropical Storm Allison June 2001 Looped Over SE Texas; 36.99 inches of rain Port of Houston

Tropical Storm Claudette July 1979. Looped Over SE Texas; 43 inches of rain measured in Alvin over 24 hours (record)

Hurricane Climatology (continued)

Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE)Measure of Tropical Cyclone activity: Sum of the square of the maximum wind speed of

all storms at least Tropical Storm strength every 6 hours

Outlook for 2010• NOAA Outlook

– 14-23 named storms (11-12)

– 8-14 Hurricanes (5-6)

– 3-7 Major Hurricanes (2-3)

– ACE 155%-270% of median

• Loss of El Nino, active phase of MDO, and above average sea surface temperatures suggest above average activity

• Even a low activity season can have a big effect locally: need to prepare

Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)

Changes to NWS Products

• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and Warnings issued 12 hours earlier (48 hours for watches, 36 hours for warnings prior to onset of TS force winds)

• Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale adopted (ties of category to surge and central pressure taken out of the scale)

Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph)

Storm Examples Wind Impacts

1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce

Claudette 2003 some damage

Humberto 2007

2 96 - 110 Georges 1998

Ike 2008

Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage

3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage

Katrina 2005

Rita 2005

4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage

Carla 1961

5 > 156 Labor Day 1935 Catastrophic damage

Camille 1969

Andrew 1992

Now officially adopted: just a wind rating without reference to surge, central pressure

New Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Summary

• Ike was a very large storm, tremendous surge producer

• Category of storm not a good overall indicator of storm severity

• 2010 season will likely be more active for Atlantic; no telling how Texas may be impacted