hurricane forecast improvement project (hfip): where do we stand after 3 years? bob gall – hfip...
TRANSCRIPT
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Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP):Where do we stand after 3 years?
Bob Gall – HFIP Development Manager
Fred Toepfer—HFIP Project manager
Frank Marks – HFIP Research Lead
Ed Rappaport – HFIP Operations Lead
March 6, 2013
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The HFIP Project – Vision/Goals
• Visiono Organize the hurricane community to dramatically
improve numerical forecast guidance to NHC in 5-10 years
• Goalso Reduce numerical forecast errors in track and
intensity by 20% in 5 years, 50% in 10 yearso Extend forecasts to 7 dayso Increase probability of detecting rapid intensification
at day 1 to 90% and 60% at day 5
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HFIP Baselines and Goals:Track
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HFIP Baselines and Goals:Intensity
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HFIP Overall Strategy
• Use global models at as high a resolution as possible to forecast track out to 7 days
• Use regional models at 1-3 km resolution to predict inner core structure to meet intensity goals out to 5 days including rapid intensification
• Hybrid DA for both regional and global using as much satellite and aircraft data as possible
• Both regional and global models run as ensemblesBoth regional and global models run as ensembles
• Statistical post processing of model output to further increase forecast skill
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Track Error of Models (2010-2011)(% Improvement over HFIP baseline)
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Impact of Aircraft Data(% improvement over D-SHIFOR)
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How are we doing?
• The HFIP goals are for model products delivered from NCEP to NHC.– The delivery date for these goals is hurricane
season 2014
• The following show the operational models (Global and Regional) performance for hurricane track and intensity in the Atlantic for latest hurricane season (2012)
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Baseline skill
5-year skill goal
GFS
HWRFGFDL
Comparison of 2012 NCEP Operational Models to the 5 Year HFIP
Goal: Track
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Baseline skill
GFS
HWRF
Comparison of 2012 NCEP Operational Models to the 5 Year HFIP
Goal: Intensity
GFDL
HFIP 5 year Goal
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Stream 1.5 Results for 2012
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AHW
HWRF
FSU
FIMGFS
NOGAPS
TVCA
GFDL
ECMWF
UKMET
Canadian Model
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AHW
HWRF
FSU
Intensity Consensus
Wisconsin
GFDL
DSHPLGEM
SPC3
TC-COAMPS
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• The upgrade to the 3km triple-nested HWRF is a result of multi-agency efforts under HFIP support
– EMC - Computational tuning to speed up the model, nest motion algorithm, physics improvements, 3km initialization and pre-implementation T&E
– HRD/AOML - multi-moving nest, nest motion algorithm, PBL upgrades, interpolation routines for initialization and others.
– DTC - code management and maintain subversion repository
– ESRL - Physics sensitivity tests and idealized capability– NHC - Diagnose the HWRF pre-implementation results– URI - 1D ocean coupling in Eastern Pacific basin
2012 HWRF Upgrades
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2012 3km HWRF Operational Upgrade Summary
HOPS: oper. HWRF
H212: 2012 HWRF
ATL Tracks• Significant Improvements of H212
– Track/intensity forecast skills for 2011/2010 seasons on Atlantic basin 20-25% improvement against HOPS
– Track forecast skills of H212 of Eastern Pacific basin maximum 25% over the HOPS in 2011 season, but little degradation at day 4 and 5 in 2010 season mainly due to Hurricane Frank
– Intensity of 2011 EP basin with over 40% to HOPS. Significant improvements in intensity bias is noted for both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, for both 2010-2011 seasons.
– The storm structure in terms of storm size and PBL height significantly improved
– Much improved wind-pressure relationship in high wind speed regime
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ATL IntensityHOPS: oper. HWRF
H212: 2012 HWRF
20-25% improvement
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Impact of Radar Data
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Impact of TDR data assimilation to hurricane intensity forecast
2.2.2 (EMC)TDR assimilation
OPR HWRF
HWRF TDR
Cross section at initial time
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With TDR
Impact of TDR Data In Operational HWRF
Without TDR
Without TDR
With TDR
Track Error Intensity Error
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• Questions?
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Extra Slides
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Comparison of 2012 NCEP Operational Models to the 5 Year HFIP
Goal: Track
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Comparison of 2012 NCEP Operational Models to the 5 Year HFIP
Goal: Intensity
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Statistical Post Processing
• Statistical Post Processing can add skill to dynamical forecasts.
• There are a number of techniques based on ensembles or individual models.
• One method is shown in the following figure
– From the FSU Multi-Model Ensemble (MMEN) which forms a weighted mean of the many global and regional models run both operationally and by HFIP in real time.
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2012 all storms
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Genesis
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Verification of model genesis for operational global models
• All models have a bias towards over-prediction, caused by both false alarms as well as genesis occurring in the forecast long (>>48h) before observed genesis.
• 4-ensemble consensus close to reliable up through 50-60%.26
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NHC Hurricane Genesis Statistics
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