Human Population and the Biodiversity Hotspots

Richard Cincotta, Robert Engelman and Jennifer Wisnewski

Gridded-Pop WorkshopMay 2-3, 2000

A Case for Considering

the Low-end User of

Gridded Pop Data

Who are low-end users?

• NGOs and other researchers using ArcView or other GIS viewing applications

• with or without spatial analysis programs.

What will they do with GPW?

• Population density can be associated with risk to various resources, infrastructure and capital.

• Population density can be associated with exposure to risks from hazards.

What do low-end users need?

• Standardization of data and procedures (comparable to UN Population Division procedures).

• Some hints/guidelines for use and display.

25

8

23

5

1

74

A

12

139

21

14

1520

25

22 24

23

C16 17

18

6B11

19

The Biodiversity Hotspots (25) and Major Tropical Wilderness Areas (3)

Conservation International

Displaying GPW for Biodiversity Audience

Most Dense: >300 people km-2

150 - 300

50 - 150

15 - 50

5 - 15

1 - 5

Least Dense: 0 - 1

Population in the Global Biodiversity Hotspots1995

Findings: Biodiversity Hotspots

• As of 1995, more than 1.1 billion people were living within the 25 biodiversity hotspots.

• The original extent of the hotspots cover just 12 percent of the planet’s land area but are home to about 20 percent of the world’s population.

Findings: Biodiversity Hotspots

• Aggregate population growth (1995-2000) in the 25 hotspots (1.8%/yr) is more rapid than the world as a whole (1.3%/yr).

• In 1995, aggregate population density in the hotspots (72 people/km2) was greater than that of the world as a whole (42 people/km2).

Population in the Global Biodiversity Hotspots1995

Major Tropical Wilderness Areas

• Population is growing at a rate of 3.1 percent annually – about 2.5 times the world’s average population growth rate.

Science & Technology

• Short article in Nature (27 April 2000 issue, pp. 990-992)

• Forthcoming article for GIS-users in ArcNews

Policymakers

• Forthcoming article for policymakers: Issues in Science & Technology

• UNDP/GEF sponsored priority-setting workshop for the West African Hotspot (Dec. 1999).

• Centerpiece for report: Nature’s Place

Public Audiences

• Population section on Conservation International wall map.

• Analysis recommended for Pennsylvania state high school environmental science curriculum.

• Press & Popularization

Recommendations

• A Standard Time Series (e.g., 1995, 2000, 2005, … ) -- with procedures for updating those intervals based on new estimates.

• Historic estimates: (e.g., 1975 or 1950).

• Discussions of Projection Methods.

Nature's Place Human

Population and the Future of Biological DiversityRichard Cincotta & Robert Engelman

GIS Analysis: Jennifer WisnewskiResearch Assistance: Bonnie Dye & Akia Talbot