hpai introduction via wild birds...2 current eu legislation regarding hpai and wild birds based on...
TRANSCRIPT
01-02 March 2016 EFSA, Parma
HPAI introduction via wild birds Workshop
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Current EU legislation regarding HPAI and wild birds based on HPAI H5N1
Winter 2014-2015: HPAI H5N8 infected wild birds and poultry outbreaks in the EU
Spring-summer 2015: HPAI H5N2 infected wild birds and poultry outbreaks in the US
BACKGROUND CURRENT MANDATE ON AI
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TOR1
the risks of introduction of HPAI H5N8 and possibly other HPAI viruses considering the possible entry routes into the EU Introduction of HPAI into Europe via migratory wild birds
TOR3
the current situation in the EU and elsewhere as regards the risk of a possible introduction of HPAI (H5N8) virus and possibly other HPAI viruses to EU poultry holdings
Introduction of HPAI into a poultry holding via wild brids
TERMS OF REFERENCE RELATED TO THE WORKSHOP
TOR2 (suitability of the current EU provisions) and TOR4 (LPAI) are beyond the scope of the workshop
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Upcoming opinion
quantitative approach combination of risk steps
PREVIOUS VERSUS UPCOMING OPINION ON AI AND WILD BIRDS
Previous opinion qualitative no combination risk steps
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Estimate parameters of the quantitative assessment that: - have a high impact on the final outcome - cannot be extracted from literature
Expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) – Sheffield method
organised in breakout sessions: - ornithologists - epidemiologists, virologists, poultry scientists
OBJECTIVES WORKSHOP
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Introduction of HPAI into Europe via migratory wild birds (TOR1)
Introduction of HPAI into a poultry holding via wild brids (TOR3)
CONTEXT OF THE PARAMETERS TO BE ELICITED
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INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO EU
HPAIV H5 clades circulating in the last decade: clades 2.3.2.1c, 2.2.1.x (both HPAI H5N1) and 2.3.4.4. (HPAI H5, both N2 and N8)
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Definitions
Northeast border: border between EU and Russia, from the north of Finland until north of Ukraine (Kiev)
Migratory wild birds are living at least part of the year outside the EU
Residential wild birds are living within the EU during the whole year.
Infected birds are birds in which the virus is detectable.
INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO EU
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INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO POULTRY HOLDING
Water birds
Sub-group Order Family Dabbling ducks Anseriformes
Anatidea
Diving ducks Shelducks Sea ducks Geese Swans Merganser and Grebes
Podicipediformes Podicipedidae
Coot and other Rallidae
Gruiformes Rallidae
Cormorants Pelicaniformes Phalacrocoracidae Pelicans Pelecanidae Herons Ciconiformes Ardeidae,
Threskiornithidae
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INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO POULTRY HOLDING
Sub-group Order Family Raptors Falconiformes Accipitridae, Falconidae,
Strigiformes Stigidae, Tytonidae
Song birds Passeriformes Aegithalidae, Alaudidae, Bombycillidae, Certhiidae, Cinclidae, Corvidae, Emberizidae, Eopsaltriidae, Estrildidae, Fringillidae, Hirundinidae, Laniidae, Motacillidae, Muscicapidae, Oriolidae, Paridae, Ploceidae, Prunellidae, Remizidae, Sittidae, Sturnidae, Sylviidae, Troglodytidae
Colombiformes Colubidea
Waders Charadriiformes Charadidea, Scolopaciea
Gulls-Storks-Cranes Laridae, Sternidea
Ciconiformes Ciconiidae
Gruiformes Gruidae
Non-water birds
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Scenario considered in the workshop
INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO EU
Q4: Prevalence of HPAI H5N8 infection among migratory water birds
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Introduction of HPAI into Europe via migratory wild birds (TOR1)
Introduction of HPAI into a poultry holding via wild brids (TOR3)
CONTEXT OF THE PARAMETERS TO BE ELICITED
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Migratory wild bird arriving in the EU
Arrival area characterised by poultry and wetland density
Q9: proportion birds per area
INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO POULTRY HOLDING
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INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO POULTRY HOLDING
Four different area types considered
Code Poultry
density
Wetland
density
HPHW High High
HPLW High Low
LPHW Low High
LPLW Low Low
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Migratory wild bird arriving in the EU
Arrival area characterised by poultry and wetland density
Virus transfer from water bird to non-water bird water bird to water bird
SIR model
Q5-Q6: shedding period
Exposure poultry holding
Q19-Q20: probability to land
Q9: proportion birds per area
INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO POULTRY HOLDING
Definition
A poultry holding is considered to consist of the poultry houses and the surroundings within a radius of 1 km (=3.14 km2 surface)
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Migratory wild bird arriving in the EU
Arrival area characterised by poultry and wetland density
Virus transfer from water bird to non-water bird water bird to water bird
SIR model
Q5-Q6: shedding period
Exposure poultry holding
Q19-Q20: probability to land
Holding susceptibility Q21: worst-
case scenario
Prevention contact poultry with infected
excretions
Q22: prevent access to water bodies Q23: implement indoor housing Q24-25: biosecurity
Q9: proportion birds per area
INTRODUCTION OF HPAI INTO POULTRY HOLDING