how to reduce dependancy on oil - technical challenges...
TRANSCRIPT
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 1
HOW TO REDUCE DEPENDANCY ON OIL -TECHNICAL CHALLENGES FOR THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
XVI. Malente Symposium, Lübeck, Oct. 8-10, 2006
Dr. Hans J. WernickeSüd-Chemie, Munich
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 2
Known reserves might be exhausted in approx. 41 yearsWe have consumed in two centuries what nature had created over millions of years
Crude Oil: Drain The Cup To The Dregs ?
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 3
Impacts:
- Availability and Competing Use
- Technical and Economical Feasibility
- Environmental
- Geopolitical
Future Feedstocks forEnergy, Transport and Chemicals
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 4
Reserves to Consumption Ratios (years)Source: BP 2006 EnergySurvey, Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften, 2003
Currently Known Feedstock Reserves forEnergy, Transport and Chemicals
41
65
207
198
42
0 50 100 150 200 250
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Subbituminous Coal
Bituminous Coal
Uranium
(excludes tar sands, gas hydrates)
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 5
Source:CTLTec2005, Beijing
Acid rain in China
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 6
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20250
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
History Projections
Exports
Domestic Production
Imports
China’s Oil Balance
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 7Source:
The Energy Surge by Emerging Economies
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 8
Oil & Gas Supply: Also a Geopolitical Topic
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 9
Geographical Pattern of Gas Reserves
70% of Gas Reserves in Middle East (Qatar, Iran) and Russia
●●
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 10
The Strait of Hormus
60 km
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 11
Carbon Hydro-Carbon Hydrogen
CO2-EmissionEnergy Content
The Ultimate Strategy “Beyond Petroleum ®”
„Beyond Petroleum“ ® registered by BP
Decarbonising = Save and Replace Fossil Feedstocks
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 12
Coal NaturalGas
CO2-EmissionEnergy Content
Oil Hydrogen
BiomassOther Renewables
The Initial Strategy: More Intelligent Use of OilDevelop Gas, Coal and Renewables as Base Feedstocks
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 13
Coal to Syngas
Coal Natural Gas
Syngas(CO + H2)
Fuels Chemicals
Gas to Chemicals
Gas to Liquids
NGto Syngas
OilBiomass
(Hydrogen)
Conversion of Gas and Coal:Always via “Synthesis Gas” (CO/H2)
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 14
Coal to Syngas
Coal Natural Gas
Syngas(CO + H2)
Fuels Chemicals
Gas to Chemicals
Gas to Liquids
NGto Syngas
OilBiomass
(Hydrogen)
Syngas(CO + H2)
Gas to Chemicals
Gas to Liquids
Süd-Chemie’s Catalysts = CTL/GTL-Facilitators
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 15
NaturalGas
Coal
The Technical Path of “Gas/Coal to Fuels/ Chemicals”
Methanol
Hydrogen
Fischer-Tropsch
CO/H2(Syngas)
Ammonia (Fertilizer)Electricity(Fuel Cells)
MTBEFormaldehydeAcetic AcidDME, DMM Olefins, PolymersSolventsGasolineDieselLubesWaxes
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 16
NaturalGas
Coal
Coal/Gas-to-Liquids: The Revival of a 1923 Technology
Methanol
Hydrogen
Fischer-Tropsch
CO/H2(Syngas)
Ammonia (Fertilizer)Electricity(Fuel Cells)
MTBEFormaldehydeAcetic AcidDME, DMM OlefinsGasolineDieselLubesWaxes
The Pioneers to generate Hydrocarbons fromCoal-based Synthesis Gas:
Franz Fischer (left) and Hans Tropsch (right) „Max Planck-Institut für Kohleforschung“, Mülheim
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 17
Sasol, Secunda, South AfricaCoal to Liquid
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 18
Coal and Gas to Chemicals:Lurgi MTP ® - Route to Polypropylene
NaturalGas
Coal
MethanolCO/H2(Syngas) MTP® Propylene
PP
Source: Lurgi
MTP® registered by Lurgi
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 19
First PP cup made entirely from natural gas
15.05.03Source: Lurgi,
Propylen/Polypropylen from Natural Gas
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 20
Sasol 18000 BPSD
Sasol 2&3160000 BPSDPetroSA
47000 BPSD
Shell Bintulu12000 BPSD
BP Alaska300 BPSD
RenTech Indonesia16000 BPSD
Syntroleum/Yakutgazprom13000 BPSD
Sasol Chevron Nigeria34000 BPSD
Shell 140000 BPSD
ConocoPhillips230000 BPSD
Sasol/QP34000 BPSD
Sasol/Chevron130000 BPSD
Syntroleum/Marathon90000 BPSD
In operationPlanned/under constructionProjected
ExxonMobil102000 BPSD
Selection of Gas & Coal -to-Liquids Projects
NinxiaShenhua2x80000 BPSD
TianjiHuatingVarious ChinaProjects
VariousCTL India
VariousCTL Americas
Shaanxi
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 21
- Significant CO2 –Reduction, but
- A Sustainable Option?- Sufficient Availability?- Ecological Feasibility?
?
„Biomass-to-Liquids/Chemicals“
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 22
GlycolesPolyoles
Bio- Ethanol
Polyesters
StarchSugars
Cellulosis
Glycerine
Bio-Diesel
FuelsChemicals
Oil Crops
GasificationSyngas
BTL
Chemicals
„Biomass-to-Liquids/Chemicals“
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 23
No Option !!!
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 24
Bio-Fuels need space: Yields per Hectar
Source: Choren
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 25
OLEOCHEMISTRY
FATS & OILS(Trigycerides)
Chemical Intermediates(Softeners, Solvents, etc.)
DetergentsCosmeticsMonomers(& Co-Monomers
Polymer-AdditivesLipidsProcessed FoodBio-Fuels
CatalystsEnzymes
150 Mio. tons / year
80 % Food15 % Oleochemicals
Vegetable Oils: Valuable Bio-Chemicals Feedstock
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 26
Hydrogen„clean and efficient“
Coal NaturalGas
CO2-EmissionEnergy Content
Oil
Biomass
....but: source, transport, storage?
HYDROGEN
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 27
Hydrogen Production: Only long-term from Regenerative Sources
RenewableRenewable““CO2CO2--neutralneutral””
FossilFossilCO2CO2--generatinggenerating
Sun
WindWater
CoalCoal
Natural GasNatural GasBiomass
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Süd-Chemie AGDr.H.J.Wernicke 20.10.2006 13:32 Page 28
Biomass-Conversion contributes but is not able to satisfydemandHigh innovation potential for chemicals from vegetable oil, sugars, starch, cellulosis
Stretching the Crude Oil Reserves
Hydrogen-“Economy“: only a long-term optionHydrogen mostly made from fossil feedstocksLong-term availability of solar hydrogen?High investments into infrastructure for transport and storageare barriers
Gas/Coal-to-Liquids/Chemicals = GTL/GTC, CTL/CTC- Technical Feasibility is given- Commercial Feasibilty also given at crude prices > 35$/bbl- Ecological impact may be superseeded by economicaland geopolitical drivers
- No benefit concerning CO2-issue
ConclusionT
I M
E